The Miami Marlins (59-56) and the Cincinnati Reds (60-56) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 3-2
The Marlins won 3-2 on Tuesday at GABP, as Miami picked up a victory for just the 2nd time in 5 meetings with Cincinnati this season. The Under (10) cashed Tuesday and has connected in 3 straight meetings. The total has gone low in 5 of the past 6 games overall for Miami.
The Reds have dropped 7 of the past 8 games overall, slipping 1 1/2 games back of the 1st-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. The Under has cashed in 6 straight games for Cincinnati.
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Marlins at Reds projected starters
RHP Johnny Cueto vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Cueto (0-3, 5.32 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th overall appearance. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 22 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Thursday
- 2023 road splits: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H), .100 opponent batting average (OBA) in 1 relief appearance
Ashcraft (6-7, 5.18 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 113 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 6-3 home loss vs. Washington Nationals Friday
- 2023 home splits: 3-6, 6.29 ERA (63 IP, 44 ER – 13 HR), .275 OBA in 12 starts
Marlins at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Reds -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Marlins at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Reds 3
Moneyline
The MARLINS (+110) are worth a look as short ‘dogs on the road.
Cueto, who spent his first 7-plus MLB season with the Reds, makes his first road start of the season in his old stomping grounds. He’ll face a skidding Cincinnati team that has dropped 7 of the past 8 games overall.
While the Reds are 4-3 in Ashcraft’s past 7 starts overall, he has posted a 3-6 record with a 6.29 ERA across 63 IP in 12 home outings and is 4-5 with a dismal 7.61 ERA with a .304 OBA across 47 1/3 IP over 10 daytime starts.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS +1.5 (-165) aren’t super expensive if you can’t bring yourself to back them and Cueto straight up and want a little insurance instead.
There is some risk, as Miami is just 3-4 across the past 7 games as an underdog on the run line.
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Over/Under
UNDER 10 (-110) might be the best play on the board in this getaway day game.
The Under has cashed in each of the first 2 games in this series and is 7-2 across the past 9 games overall for the Marlins.
The Reds have averaged just 3.2 runs per game (RPG) across their past 6 outings, cashing the Under in each of those contests.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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