Tag: Marlins Nationals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (54-92) and Washington Nationals (65-80) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 8-1

The Nationals rebounded from a 12-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves Tuesday with an impressive 5-1 victory on Wednesday in the 2nd game of a 6-game homestand. Washington has had Miami’s number this season, winning 8 of their 9 meetings and outscoring them 57-24.

The Marlins head into this series after a 3-game sweep by the Pirates in Pittsburgh to start a 7-game road trip. Miami was outscored 12-7, continuing their road struggles this season, where they’re just 26-45.

Marlins at Nationals projected starters

RHP Darren McCaughan vs. LHP Mitchell Parker

McCaughan (0-0, 7.40 ERA) makes his 3rd start and his 8th appearance. He has a 1.85 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 9-5 home victory against Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 0-0, 10.66 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 15 ER (16 R), 2.13 WHIP, 3.6 K/9 in 3 games
  • Has never pitched against the Nationals

Parker (7-9, 4.43 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 136 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 8-6 victory at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 5-4, 3.04 ERA (77 IP, 26 ER (30 R), 1.08 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 13 starts
  • 2024 vs. Marlins: 1-0, 1.80 ERA (10 IP, 2 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 2 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Marlins at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:28 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Nationals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-140) | Nationals -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 7, Marlins 2

Moneyline

PASS.

I’ve got the Nationals (-175) taking care of business on Thursday, but I’m not paying that price.

Run line/Against the spread

BET NATIONALS -1.5 (+115).

The Nationals are in a prime spot to cover the -1.5 run line against the Marlins. Washington has owned this series all season, winning 8 of the 9 matchups — all of them by multiple runs in outscoring Miami by a combined 33 runs. The Marlins’ struggles against left-handed pitching add to the appeal, as they’ve hit just .229 against southpaws with an abysmal 10-40 record. With lefty Parker on the mound and Miami’s road woes (26-45), this game sets up perfectly for another Washington win by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

PASS.

I’ve got no feel on this one. It’s been 5-5 O/U in their last 10 meetings.

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (62-72) welcome the Miami Marlins (66-67) to Nationals Park Thursday for the opener of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Miami leads 7-2

The Nationals are 6-4 over their last 10 games and are 26 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Washington is 33-36 at home this season. It lost 2 of 3 to the Toronto Blue Jays to start the week, including a 7-0 defeat in Wednesday’s finale.

The Marlins were swept in a 2-game series by the Tampa Bay Rays, losing Wednesday 3-0 and Tuesday 11-2. They are 2-8 over their last 10 games and 28-36 on the road. Miami sits 21 1/2 games behind the Braves.

Marlins at Nationals projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Joan Adon

Garrett (7-5, 3.96 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 134 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 7-4 home loss over the Nationals Friday
  • 2023 away stats: 4-2, 2.86 ERA in 63 IP in 12 starts

Adon (2-0, 5.25 ERA) makes his 5th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 24 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 7-4 road win over the Marlins Friday
  • 2023 home stats: 0-0, 9.90 ERA in 10 IP in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance

Marlins at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 5, Marlins 3

Moneyline

BET NATIONALS (+135).

These teams have played three 3-game series this season, and the Marlins have swept 2 of them. However, Miami has been awful over its last 13 games, posting just a 3-10 record. The Marlins have lost Garrett’s last 2 starts as well and are also 28-36 on the road.

Washington is 29-36 at home so slightly better. Simply put, the Nationals have been the better team as of late and are 6-4 over their last 10. Adon looked dominated in his last start against Miami. Washington is also better than Miami after a loss (35-36 compared to 30-36) which both teams are in this situation.

Take NATIONALS (+135).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Marlins aren’t juicy enough at -1.5 (+100) to consider — I would want to see them at least at (+120). The Nationals seem like a better moneyline play here given the odds.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

The Nationals are 2-3 O/U over their last 5 games and 63-66-5 O/U on the season. They went Under in 2 of their last 3 games against the Marlins as well. The total is 3-5-1 O/U in the two sides’ 9 games in 2023.

Miami is 59-70-4 O/U this season and 1-3 O/U over its last 4 games. It has scored 2 or fewer in 4 straight games. It is 2-8 O/U over its last 10 games. Put it all together and take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Marlins (38-31) and Washington Nationals (27-40) open a 3-game set Friday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 3-0

The Marlins won 4-1 as +158 underdogs at the Seattle Mariners Wednesday and we predicted the moneyline and total correctly on that game. Miami avoided suffering a 3rd straight loss and is 5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the lead in the NL East.

The Nationals won 4-1 as +174 underdogs at the Houston Astros Thursday. Washington has won just 2 of its last 10 games and is 5th in the NL East, 15 games back of the Braves.

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Marlins at Nationals projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcántara vs. RHP Trevor Williams

Alcántara (2-5, 4.75 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 83 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 5-1 win at Chicago White Sox Saturday
  • Has not recorded a loss in 4 straight starts
  • Career vs. Nationals: 6-6, 3.21 ERA (84 IP, 30 ER), 67 H, 9 HR, 29 BB, 62 K in 13 starts

Williams (3-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 6-2 win at Braves Sunday
  • Has lost 2 of his last 3 starts
  • Career vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.75 ERA (36 IP, 15 ER), 35 H, 5 HR, 4 BB, 36 K in 5 starts and 5 relief appearances

Marlins at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Nationals 4

Moneyline

PASS.

The Nationals haven’t won back-to-back games since May 31-June 2. Miami (-160) should win, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the ML when the Marlins should win by multiple runs. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET MARLINS -1.5 (+100).

Miami has won 9 of its last 12 games and 8 of those wins were by multiple runs. Washington is just 3-13 in its last 16 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 8 of its last 10 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-105).

The Over is 5-2 in Miami’s last 7 road games vs. teams with a losing record.

The Over has hit in 9 of Washington’s last 13 at home and should cash again Friday as the Marlins bounce back offensively after only scoring 8 runs in a 3-game set vs. the Mariners.

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (37-40) try to provide fireworks against the Washington Nationals (29-52) Monday at Nationals Park in the finale of a 4-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 11:05 a.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Miami is 11-1 against Washington this season and the Marlins have outscored the Nationals 59-26 in the 12 games.

Happy Independence Day, everyone!

Miami pulled one out 7-4 in extra innings Sunday to continue its dominance over the Nationals. Washington got some bad news as star OF Juan Soto left the game with a calf injury that will likely keep him out of Monday’s game.

The Fish have won 4 in a row as they inch closer to .500. Washington is going nowhere – fast. Soto’s injury won’t make things any easier.

Marlins at Nationals projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Garrett (1-3, 3.39 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.70 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.

  • Roughed up in last start for 5 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 5 K in 4 2/3 IP against the St. Louis Cardinals June 28.
  • Features a 91-mph fastball, slider, curve and changeup
  • Opponents kill his changeup for a .714 batting average, but they’re hitting just .211 on his 4-seamer.

Corbin (4-10, 6.06 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.70 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP.

  • Coming off his best start of the year vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates June 28 with 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB and a season-high 12 K.
  • Allowed 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 8 K in 6 IP in April 28 home loss to Miami.

Marlins at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:19 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Nationals +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -125)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 4, Marlins 3

Money line

For a team that’s 1-11 against a particular opponent, the books sure aren’t confident in the Marlins Monday. With it being the 4th of July in the nation’s capital, the law of averages and Corbin coming off his best start give us enough confidence to go with the NATIONALS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+120) for a HALF UNIT.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Nats are just 15-28 on the RL at home. The -170 price is pretty cumbersome. If you’re on board with the home cooking, just stick to the money line or Nats first 5 innings. PASS.

Over/Under

The Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ last 5 starts against a lefty and in Garrett’s last 5 starts. The Under is 4-0 in the Nats’ last 4 against a lefty and in Corbin’s last 4 starts with the total between 7 and 8.5. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington. Let’s roll with UNDER 9.5 (-125).

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (34-40) and Washington Nationals (29-49) swing into a 4-game set at Nationals Park starting Friday. The opener is slated for a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Miami leads 8-1

The Marlins swept the Nationals the last time these 2 clubs met, June 7-9 in Miami. The Fish outscored the Nats 21-7 over the 3 games, which included a 12-2 rout and a 2-1, 10-inning final. Miami is coming off losing 2 of 3 at St. Louis. They Marlins are just 3-8 over their last 11 road tilts.

The Nationals continue a homestand that opened with 2 wins in 3 games against Pittsburgh. The Nats are 3-1 across their last 4 games.

Marlins at Nationals projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Rogers (3-6, 5.86 ERA) owns a 1.63 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 63 IP over 14 starts.

  • Walks are up and strikeouts are down from 2021 when the then-23-year-old logged a 2.64 ERA
  • Owns a 6.92 ERA (13 IP, 10 ER) and 2.00 WHIP across last 3 starts

Gray (6-4, 3.82 ERA) has clocked a 1.21 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 75 1/3 IP through 14 starts.

  • Current Miami batters own an aggregate .828 OPS against him
  • Has allowed just 2 runs over his last 25 2/3 innings

Marlins at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:29 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Nationals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Nationals -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Nationals 5

Money line

Miami sports a better offense against right-handed pitchers, and it gets a platoon boost despite batting more righties. That right lean plays into an advantage against Washington’s bullpen, which has scuffled against that side.

While the Marlins are 12-17 in 1-run games, there is VALUE IN A MIAMI (+105) PLAY.

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Run line/Against the spread

Getting a run and a half with Miami +1.5 (-190) is tempting, but that option is washed away by the -190 juice. PASS.

Over/Under

Just a slight lean on the OVER 9.5 (-102) here.

Gray’s numbers have been buoyed by a .236 batting average on balls in play. A warm evening, an outward breeze in the forecast and a couple flyball starters play into the lean.

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (7-8) start a 3-game series with the National League East co-tenant Washington Nationals (6-12) Monday. First pitch at Nationals Park is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami won back-to-back games in Atlanta Saturday and Sunday to win a 3-game series with the Braves after losing 2 of 3 games versus the St. Louis Cardinals.

Washington is riding a 5-game losing skid, which includes a 3-game sweep in the previous series against the San Francisco Giants this past weekend and a split of a 4-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks last week.

The Nationals beat the Marlins 11-8 in last year’s regular-season series and Washington outscored Miami by 33 runs (101-68) in those contests.

Marlins at Nationals projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Alcantara (1-0, 1.86 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across 19 1/3 IP.

  • Got a no-decision in Miami’s 2-0 loss to the Cardinals Wednesday, throwing 8-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. Nationals: 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.75 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 over 2 starts.
  • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 4.44 FIP with a .199 expected batting average (xBA), .272 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .382 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 22.9 K% and 87.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 82 plate appearances (PA).

Gray (2-1, 3.14 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.

  • Beat the D-Backs in his last outing Tuesday, hurling 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K in a 6-1 victory.
  • 2021 vs. Marlins: 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 15 K across 2 starts.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 6.75 FIP with a .217 xBA, .346 xwOBA, .498 xSLG, 24.2 K% and 89.1 mph EV in 33 PA.

Marlins at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:26 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Nationals +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 4, Marlins 3

Money line

TAKE the NATIONALS (+102) because they were 6-3 overall in Washington versus the Marlins last season and Alcantara’s numbers are so-so in Nationals Park.

Alcantara is just 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.28 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 across 4 career starts in Washington, which are all worse than his career averages. Washington’s bullpen pitching peripherals are also actually better than Miami’s.

Miami’s lineup has surprisingly been far more productive than Washington’s thus far but I think that gap narrows as the season progresses. Miami’s lineup was projected to be a below-average unit preseason.

While Washington’s 3- through 5-hitters feature baseball’s best hitter in RF Juan Soto, DH Nelson Cruz and 1B Josh Bell who both can hit 30-plus home runs.

BET the NATIONALS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Nationals +1.5 (-170) is far too expensive considering Washington has a losing RL record versus NL East foes and as a home underdog since the beginning of last season.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-130) because the Over being much cheaper is the oddsmakers’ way of trying to incentivize bettors into a square wager.

Both starters have looked good to start the year and the weather forecast is predicting a slight wind blowing in from left-centerfield and wet conditions, which could suppress the hitting.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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