Tag: Marlins Astros odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (32-60) and Houston Astros (48-44) meet Thursday as they cap off a 3-game series. First pitch at Minute Maid Park will be at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Houston leads 2-0

Miami dropped the 1st 2 games of this series and is just 2-7 across its last 9 outings. In 2 games in Houston, the Marlins have had just 4 at-bats with a runner in scoring position.

The Astros banged out 13 hits in a 9-1 Wednesday triumph over the Fish. Since June 29, Houston has averaged a robust 6.64 runs per game.

Marlins at Astros projected starters

RHP Roddery Munoz vs. TBD

Munoz (1-3, 5.48 ERA) is making his 9th start. The rookie has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 44 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Chicago White Sox Friday
  • Has walked 10 batters over his last 14 2/3 IP
  • Never faced Astros before

The Astros had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Jake Bloss (0-0, 4.91 ERA) is expected to make his 2nd start. The 23-year-old rookie allowed 2 earned runs on 6 hits and 1 walk with 2 K’s in his MLB debut, a 14-11 home victory vs. the Baltimore Orioles June 21.

  • Was placed on IL June 22 with shoulder injury
  • Rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 9-7 home loss vs. Round Rock Saturday
  • Threw 55 pitches in rehab start and would figure to be under tight restriction Thursday

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Marlins at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Astros -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

HOUSTON (-190) has not lost at home since June 15 (8-0), and the Astros are 5-1 in their last half-dozen games against Miami.

The Marlins have averaged just 3.48 runs per game, and analytics would make the case they have been deserving of a lower average still.

The pitching in this one makes for a big question mark (consider a partial-unit play to account for added uncertainty), but the Houston bullpen has been logging solid metrics of late and the Astros have won 4 straight series finales.

BACK THE ASTROS (-190).

Run line/Against the spread

Miami has played in a slew if 1-run games. This contest has an Under lean, and the projected tightness works against the grain of an Astros-minus-1½ play. STEER CLEAR.

Over/Under

Look for the bullpens to loom large in this one, and the expected-vs.-actual assessments of both are solid.

BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (32-58) and Houston Astros (46-44) square off Tuesday as they swing into a 3-game series. First pitch in the lid-lifter at Minute Maid Park will be at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Houston won last year’s series 2-1

Miami defeated the Chicago White Sox Saturday and Sunday at home after having lost 5 straight games June 30-July 5. The Marlins head into this series ranked 29th in MLB in both runs (3.51 per game) and runs allowed (5.00).

The Astros are back at home after a 6-4 road trip. Half of those 4 losses came at the end of the trip: Houston lost back-to-back games at the Minnesota Twins Saturday and Sunday.

Marlins at Astros projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. TBD

Rogers (1-9, 4.91 ERA) is making his 18th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 84 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 7-2 home defeat vs. Boston Red Sox Wednesday
  • Never faced Astros before

RHP Ronel Blanco is listed by some media outlets as the likely mound foe for Rogers. Blanco (8-3, 2.53 ERA) would be making his 17th start. He owns a 1.01 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 96 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-2 win at Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
  • Never faced Marlins before

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Marlins at Astros odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Marlins +188 (bet $100 to win $188) | Astros -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-118) | Astros -1.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +104 | U: -128)

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Marlins at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Marlins 4

Moneyline

Lots of juice drowning out profit potential here. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Houston is 3-1 over its last 4 games against Miami, and the Astros have scored 6-plus runs in each of those wins. They’re the better club and are in better form heading into this series.

The Fish are 1-3 across their last 4 series openers. Houston is 4-1 over its last 5 lid-lifters.

TAKE THE ASTROS -1.5 (-102).

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games. The Over has cashed in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games. And in series meetings, the Over is 6-3 across the last 9.

With some all-around fade of the pitching and a healthy dose of respect for a Houston club that has found its way to a high-contact .811 OPS since June 19, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (+104).

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Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (27-30) try to inch closer to .500 against the Houston Astros (36-23) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Miami leads 2-0 after 5-1, and 7-4 wins the last 2 days.

You probably didn’t see Miami poised for a sweep when they came to town. They hit 4 homers Friday and worked the counts to grind out a 5-1 win Saturday. They didn’t get length from their starters, though, as they used 5 and 4 relievers the last 2 games. That might catch up Sunday.

The Astros have swung and missed a lot in this series and their defense and pitching haven’t been great. They need to settle in because the pitcher they’re up against throws smoke.

Marlins at Astros projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Cabrera (2-0, 0.75 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 12 IP.

  • The 24-year-old will have his first test as he beat the sub-.500 Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.
  • Utilizes a changeup (94-mph avg.), fastball (97-mph avg.), curveball and slider. His heater is in the 65th percentile for spin rate.
  • His .080 BABIP is sure to regress — and it may start Sunday against a good team.

Verlander (7-2, 2.13 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a league-leading 0.84 WHIP, a 1.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP.

  • Hasn’t faced Miami since 2016. He’s coming off a gem, allowing 1 R, 6 H, 2 BB and with 12 K vs. the Seattle Mariners.
  • After missing nearly 2 seasons from Tommy John surgery, he has returned in pre-surgery form at 39. One thing pitchers struggle with coming back is their control, but his 1.8 BB/9 is only a smidge higher than it was the last few years.
  • Current Marlins hitters have hit .227 with a 28.9 K% in 45 plate appearances against him.

Marlins at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Astros -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Astros -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Marlins 2

Money line

The public loves Houston as 73% of the public and 78% of the money are on the Astros, according to Tipico’s data. And they’re probably right. Verlander will right the ship, and the Astros hit hard stuff well. There’s no chance we’re risking 2 1/2 times our return, though. So let’s follow the rest of the Astros and jump on Verlander’s back to take ASTROS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread

I like the Astros’ side here, but they’re just 28-31 on the RL and 10-15 at home. But I need more than -110 on a team that has lost 3 in a row. So, PASS here and maybe try to snag a live bet if the Marlins grab a 1-0 lead early.

Over/Under

The Under hit Saturday, but that was just the 3rd time it cashed in the last 9 for the Astros. The Over is 4-0 in Cabrera’s last 4 starts on grass and Miami’s last 4 interleague games against a right-hander. There are some Under trends for Verlander, but this is a hittable number. LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (36-21) host the Miami Marlins (25-30) Friday for the 1st of their 3-game interleague series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is 6-4 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Washington Nationals Tuesday-Thursday.

Houston is 7-3 SU in the last 10 but lost the rubber match of a 3-game home series with the Seattle Mariners 6-3 Wednesday.

Marlins at Astros projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Luis Garcia  

Lopez is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 66 IP over 11 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 5-4 home win vs. the San Francisco Giants Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • This is Lopez’s 1st career start vs. the Astros.

Garcia is 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 6-0, Saturday at the Kansas City Royals with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • This is Garcia’s 1st career start vs. the Marlins.

Marlins at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Astros 3

Money line

BET the MARLINS (+130). 

This is a suspiciously low number considering Houston’s record, and more than 80% of the cash is on the Astros (-160), according to Pregame.com.

But, the line hasn’t budged, and this line freeze suggests the House is daring the public to take a bigger position on Houston.

Also, Miami has the starting pitching edge Friday. Lopez had a subpar start in his last outing, by his standard, and should bounce back vs. the Astros.

He grades in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, chase rate and whiff rate, per Statcast, and Lopez has just a 1.41 road ERA over 5 starts this year.

Lastly, the Marlins are better than their record indicates. Miami has an MLB-leading minus-5 luck factor, which means the Marlins should have 5 more wins based on run differential.

BET 0.75 units on the MARLINS (+130).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Miami is 14-5 RL as road underdogs, but the Marlins +1.5 (-170) is a little out of my price range. Garcia is having a solid year himself, and the Astros -1.5 (+135) are a top-3 team in the American League.

PASS.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).

Miami is 11-15 O/U on the road, and Houston is 7-16 O/U at home, Marlins-Astros are a combined 7-14 O/U when these two starters get the nod, Minute Maid Park is 26th in park factor (aka very pitcher-friendly), and sharp action has steamed this total down from an 8-run opener, per Pregame.com.

However, since we are getting late to the party on the total, and this number is sharp, there isn’t much value left in the UNDER 7.5 (-108).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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