Tag: Mariners Rangers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Seattle Mariners (12-12) take on the Texas Rangers (13-12) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Globe Life Field at 2:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Mariners fell 5-1 Wednesday to even the series at 1. They scored their lone run in the 1st inning and couldn’t add on despite scattering 8 hits in the game. OF Julio Rodriguez has yet to find his power stroke. He’s hitting .266 with 1 HR and 10 RBIs on the young season after clubbing 32 HRs last year.

The Rangers are fighting with consistency as they sit 1 game over .500 after 15 games. They’re still atop of the division with Seattle just a half-game out as the AL West has beaten up on each other in the early going. OF Adolis Garcia powers the club with a .312 BA, 7 HR and 23 RBIs.

Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. LHP Andrew Heaney

Castillo (1-4, 4.40 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K Saturday against Colorado Rockies at Coors Field
• 3 career starts vs. Texas: 0-3, 4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 19 K in 14 2/3 IP
• Current Rangers hitters have hit .323 in 71 plate appearances off Castillo

Heaney (0-2, 6.35 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 17 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K Friday against Atlanta Braves
• Last 5 starts vs. Seattle: 1-2, 5.25 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 27 K in 24 IP

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Mariners at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rangers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+140) | Rangers +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Rangers 3

Moneyline

One look at Castillo’s numbers and you begin to wonder if the 31-year-old is starting to decline. That’s not the case. He has been victimized by a .392 BABIP. His fastball velo is still 95.1 mph, and his xERA is 2.86 – a far cry from his actual ERA at 4.40. His barrel and exit-velocity numbers are in the midrange, so his season should come back around.

He was beyond filthy with 7 shutout IP at Coors Field last time out, and I look for him to keep that momentum rolling. Take the MARINERS -115.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m passing on the RL here because I’d like to see more value picking a road team to cover a -1.5.

I love LUIS CASTILLO OVER 5.5 K’S (+100). Texas doesn’t strike out a lot, but he had 9 K’s in his last 2 starts – including 9 in Coors Field.

Over/Under

Both games have rocked the Under 9, and I expect it to hit again. These teams are 3-6-1 O/U in their last 10 meetings. The Over is 2-8 in Seattle’s last 10 and 5-5 in Texas’ last 10. It’s expected to be 76 degrees with a 16-mph wind blowing toward the left-field foul pole.

Take the UNDER 9 (-120).

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The Seattle Mariners (12-11) and Texas Rangers (12-12) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series at Globe Life Field Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 1-0

The Mariners won 4-0 as -114 favorites in the series opener Tuesday and the Under (9) hit. CF Julio Rodríguez hit his 1st HR of the year, and Seattle took over the top spot in the AL West, knocking Texas out of 1st place in the division for the 1st time this season.

The Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4 games and allowed 4 or more runs in 7 straight. A loss Wednesday would put Texas below .500 for the 1st time under manager Bruce Bochy, who was hired prior to the 2023 season.

Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Jon Gray

Miller (3-1, 1.85 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.82 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 24 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 5-1 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds April 17
• 2024 road stats: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (7 IP, 0 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 5-3 victory at Milwaukee Brewers April 6
• Career vs. Rangers: 0-2, 17.55 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 2.55 WHIP in 2 starts last season

Gray (0-1, 3.15 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 20 innings.

• Last outing: 1 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 4 K in relief appearance of 5-2 loss at Atlanta Braves Saturday
• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss at Detroit Tigers April 16
• 2024 home stats: 0-1, 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.78 WHIP in 3 starts
• Career vs. Mariners: 3-2, 3.89 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.06 WHIP in 7 starts — won both starts vs. Seattle in 2023 (14 IP, 1 ER)

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Mariners at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:18 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rangers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+155) | Rangers +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Rangers 3

Moneyline

The MARINERS (+100) have won 6 of 7 and own the 6th-lowest team ERA this season at 3.33.

Miller allowed 6 or more earned runs in both of his starts against Texas last season, but the Rangers offense has fallen off of a cliff lately. Texas is 24th in MLB with a .251 batting average over the last 3 games, and the pitching has followed suit, ranking 24th in ERA (4.15) over that span.

BET MARINERS (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

The Rangers may be able to keep it close in a low-scoring game, but it’s hard to win long-term laying -190 on a team.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

Seattle has been the best Under bet in MLB this season at 15-7-1 (68.2%). With the Rangers offense struggling of late, I see no reason to bet against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

BET UNDER 9 (-120).

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The Texas Rangers (12-11) welcome the Seattle Mariners (11-11) to Globe Life Field Tuesday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Rangers won 9-4 last year

The Mariners beat the Colorado Rockies 10-2 Sunday, closing as -114 favorites. They won 2 of 3 in that series after sweeping the Cincinnati Reds in 3 straight at home. Seattle has won 5 of its last 6 and is 4-5 straight up on the road this season.

The Rangers beat the Atlanta Braves 6-4 Sunday, closing as +138 underdogs. They ended up losing 2 of 3 in Atlanta. Texas did win 3 of 4 against the Detroit Tigers prior to that series and has won 4 of its last 7. The Rangers are 5-5 straight up at home.

Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Dane Dunning

Gilbert (1-0, 2.33 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.78 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 27 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 victory vs. Cincinnati Reds last Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 0-0, 3.38 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 5 ER — 4 HR), 10 H, 2 BB, 15 K, .469 opponent slugging percentage (SLG) in 2 starts

Dunning (2-1, 3.91 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 23 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win at Detroit Tigers Wednesday
• 2024 home stats: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 3-1 loss vs. Houston Astros April 7
• 2023 home splits: 7-2, 4.44 ERA (77 IP, 38 ER — 15 HR), 74 H, 18 BB, 51 K in 10 starts and 5 relief appearances

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Mariners at Rangers odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Rangers -106 (bet $106 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+138) | Rangers +1.5 (-166)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 4, Mariners 3

Moneyline

BET RANGERS (-106).

The Rangers are coming off an impressive road win over the Braves. They are 5-5 straight up at home and 1-0 straight up as a home underdog. Texas has scored at least 5 runs in 3 of its last 5 games, so it has consistently produced offensively.

Seattle’s strength is in its pitching, but Gilbert hasn’t been as good on the road. It has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 8 games and is just 4-5 straight up on the road.

Considering those trends, back RANGERS (-106).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s not great value on the run line here. The Mariners are too risky as run-line favorites, while the Rangers are far too expensive as run-line underdogs.

Ultimately, whichever way one leans, the moneyline is the better play.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9 (-112).

Again, the Mariners’ strength is their pitching. They have allowed 6 total runs in the last 5 games. Gilbert has been a strong option, although worse on the road, for them this season. Seattle is 7-14-1 O/U on the season.

Dunning has been solid as well, and the Rangers have allowed 18 runs throughout his 4 starts. Texas has gone 4-3 O/U in its last 7. Considering the Mariners’ strength in pitching, back UNDER 9 (-112).

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The Seattle Mariners (84-70) and Texas Rangers (86-68) meet Sunday as they close out their 3-game AL West series in Arlington. First pitch at Globe Life Field is slated for 2:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 7-1

Seattle has lost the first 2 games of this series, including a 2-0 defeat Saturday, and is just 5-9 since Sept. 8. The Mariners have lost 6 straight to the Rangers.

Texas has won 4 straight games, and its timing has been clutch. Heading into Sunday’s action, the Rangers lead the AL West; they are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Houston Astros and 2 games ahead of Seattle.

Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Bryan Woo vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Woo (4-4, 3.90 ERA) is tabbed for his 17th start. He owns a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 80 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-0 win at Oakland Athletics Monday
• 2023 road stats: 2-2, 4.04 ERA in 49 IP across 10 starts
• One career start vs. Rangers: 2 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 BB in 16-6 road loss on June 3

Eovaldi (11-4, 3.05 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 135 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-4 home win vs. Boston Red Sox Tuesday
• 2023 home stats: 5-3, 3.26 ERA in 60 2/3 IP across 11 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 1-1, 4.55 ERA in 27 2/3 IP
• Was out for 6 weeks or so in July-August with a forearm strain; has been working limited but increasing pitch counts since his Sept. 5 return.
• Has held current Seattle batters to an aggregate .498 OPS per ESPN

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Mariners at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 4, Mariners 3

Moneyline

The true odds on each side look to be well-covered here: no leverage on any profit, so holster the account login. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The same gray area as above, but this play is drowning and juice. PASS even quicker.

Over/Under

Twenty-two of Texas’ last 29 games have cashed on the Over (+14.50 units, 45% ROI).

Saturday’s play in this corner was an Under 8.5, and the wager easily cashed after a 2-0 Rangers victory. While some systemic things in both offenses that indicate lower-scoring days ahead, that prognosis still goes alongside some likability of the pitching in a match-up.

On Sunday, there is some fade in that assessment of the pitchers. Enough so, we can swing this the other way.

Woo has benefited from an overall .277 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a .226 mark in high-leverage situations and a .224 mark in inning lead-off situations. His expected ERA figures would regard his 3.90 surface ERA as fortunate.

Eovaldi has allowed a .267 BABIP overall, a .257 BABIP at home, a .265 BABIP across inning lead-off situations, a .183 BABIP with runners in scoring position and a .200 BABIP in high-leverage situations.

The lean here is real, but really small: consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 9 (-110).

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The Seattle Mariners (84-69) and Texas Rangers (85-68) meet for the middle game of a 3-game series. First pitch at Globe Life Field is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 6-1

Seattle dropped Friday’s series opener 8-5 and has lost 5 straight to the Rangers. The Mariners are 6-9 over their last 15 games on the road.

Texas has won 3 straight games, clubbing 14 extra-base hits and posting a 1.007 OPS along the way. Friday’s contest marked the 1st of 7 games between these postseason contenders the rest of the way. Heading into Saturday’s action, the Rangers lead the AL West; they are a half-game ahead of the Houston Astros and 1 game ahead of Seattle.

Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Gilbert (13-6, 3.77 ERA) makes his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 179 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday
• 2023 road stats: 9-1, 3.41 ERA in 95 IP across 16 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Rangers: 1-1, 2.08 ERA in 30 1/3 IP
• Has struggled in September, allowing an .821 OPS over 4 starts; That stretch, however, has been alongside a .339 batting average on balls in play

Montgomery (9-11, 3.38 ERA) makes his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 175 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Boston Red Sox Monday
• 2023 Home stats: 6-5, 3.88 ERA in 92 2/3 IP across 16 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals and Rangers
• Has faced Seattle in 1 other start, allowing 3 R in 6 2/3 IP July 8, 2021

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Mariners at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:18 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 3, Mariners 2

Moneyline

A good pitching match-up and 2 evenly-matched teams overall. Can’t split ’em: PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Same gray area as above but surrounded by more juice. AVOID.

Over/Under

Both clubs have some offensive numbers not fully supported by analytic measures, and that opens up their combined efforts to an Under lean.

The concept of batting average on balls in play figures prominently in how both offenses can be figures as being too far over their skis. The MLB average BABIP is .297, and it’s a “sticky” number with gravity: when splits are significantly above or below that .297, we can project some movement back the other way.

Key Seattle BABIPs: .306 in road games, .316 with runners in scoring position, .352 last month (when perhaps many bettors started to overrate what has mostly been an average offense).

Key Texas BABIPs: .314 overall, .325 with RISP, .330 in high-leverage situations.

In a game with two solid starting pitchers … with back ends of bullpens fully available … and with a Texas bullpen being underrated by a significant margin, BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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The Seattle Mariners (84-68) and Texas Rangers (84-68) open up a 3-game set at Globe Life Field Friday. First pitch is at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 5-1

The M’s come into this one fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics. They are just 9-11 over the last 20 games, though. These teams are tied for 2nd in the AL West, just a half-game behind the Houston Astros. They are also tied for the final AL Wild Card spot with Toronto just a half-game ahead of them.

The Rangers have won 6 of their last 10 games, but they’re also 9-11 over their last 20 games. Texas is 47-31 at home though, and 23-19 against the AL West.

Mariners at Rangers projected starters

RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Dane Dunning

Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 123 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K Saturday vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
• 1 career start vs. Rangers: 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K on June 4

Dunning (10-6, 3.78 ERA) makes his 24th start and 33rd appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 157 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K Saturday against Cleveland Guardians
• Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 1-1, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 25 K in 26 1/3 IP

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Mariners at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 6, Mariners 4

Moneyline

The Rangers have won 4 in a row against the Mariners and 7 of the last 10 meetings dating to last year. Texas is extremely tough at home as well and it torched Miller for 7 runs when they met in June.

I’ll give a slight edge to the RANGERS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Texas is 42-35 on the RL at home this year. Eight of the last 10 meetings between these rivals have been decided by multiple runs. Texas swept a 3-game set here against the M’s by a score of 30-9 back in early June.

Take the RANGERS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

The Mariners are 4-5-1 O/U over their last 10 contests, and Texas is 7-3. Dunning has allowed at least 2 ER in each of his last 5 starts against the Mariners. The ball flies in this park with a total of 39 runs in the 3-game series between these teams in June.

LEAN OVER 9 (-105).

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