The QB’s success has been impressive, but it’s also not sustainable.
This wasn’t how things were supposed to play out, but the Titans won’t complain. After benching one underwhelming quarterback in Marcus Mariota for another one in Ryan Tannehill, it was assumed that Tennessee would be in the market for a new franchise quarterback this offseason.
Six wins later, all of that changed.
Tannehill decided to complicate things by actually being good. Like, statistically the best quarterback in the NFL good. Since taking over for Mariota in Week 7, Tannehill leads the NFL in stats like passer rating and yards-per-attempt (both adjusted and non-adjusted) and his advanced stats aren’t bad either: He leads the league in completion percentage over expectation, per Next Gen Stats, and he ranks fourth in expected points added per attempt.
The Titans, who have gone 6-1 over that stretch, have taken notice and are reportedly considering a long-term deal for Tannehill.
And that report came out BEFORE Tannehill lit up the Raiders defense for 391 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-21 win. The performance included this beauty of a throw from the shadow of his own end zone.
And that came a week after he closed out a big road win over the Colts with this dime in crunch time.
Not only is Tannehill putting up crazy numbers, but you also have these highlights Titans fans can point to and say This looks like a franchise guy.
This all seems a little sudden and we have been fooled by mediocre quarterbacks going through similar stretches. Ask the Jaguars how that turns out. Committing long-term money to a quarterback with a considerable track record of mediocrity after one hot stretch seems reckless, but Tannehill is making it hard for the front office to just walk away. And the other option is slapping the franchise tag on him, which could cost up to $27 million for a quarterback.
With over $60 million projected cap space, Tennessee can afford to pay Tannehill that money. But we shouldn’t be asking if they can pay him. The better question is should the Titans pay him. As well as Tannehill has played this season, the answer is probably no. I say that because a lot of the success Tannehill is having is completely unsustainable.
Let’s start with his play under pressure. Before 2019, this was the one area where Tannehill could have really used some work. His inability to evade sacks (which is still a bit of a problem) and make plays under duress stood out on film and showed up in the numbers, as well. But guess what? That’s changed this season. Tannehill is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt under pressure, which leads the league, per Sports Info Solutions. Second place on the list? Dak Prescott … at 7.4.
In the three seasons Tannehill played before 2019, he had never averaged more than 6.6 yards per attempt under pressure. The big jump isn’t entirely surprising, as studies have shown that “under pressure” stats are volatile.
Via Pro Football Focus’ 2019 QB Annual:
Almost all of a quarterback’s season-long statistics are far less stable under pressure than they are when clean. This is understandable, since a quarterback’s ability is far more isolated when he is kept clean than when he is pressured. This also explains some outlier seasons for quarterbacks that were not eventually sustained. For example, Josh McCown’s 112.2 passer rating when pressured in 2013 was both more than 20 points higher than any other quarterback that year and a sign that regression was in order… Thus, when discussing a quarterback’s prowess when under pressure, one should therefore consider these statistics as descriptive, and not predictive.
So, no, Tannehill did not become the greatest under pressure quarterback of all-time overnight. Regression is coming.
Another area where Tannehill is thriving is the play-action passing game. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 play-action attempts, Tannehill leads the league in yards-per-attempt (13.4), passer rating (137.5) and only Drew Brees and Russell Wilson have a higher success rate (59.4%). The Titans are wisely leaning into this strategy.
Here’s the problem: Play-action stats are even less predictive than under-pressure stats. Back to PFF:
Our analysis suggests that, other than positively-graded throws and PACR, almost nothing a quarterback does when using play action has any predictive power year-to-year.
Again, regression is coming.
A lot of those play-action passes are turning into deep shots, and that’s another area where Tannehill is getting the benefit of unsustainable luck, as Sharp Football Analysis’ Dan Pizzuta illustrated with this chart. You can find Tannehill all the way at the bottom…
That chart shows that Tannehill has been the least accurate quarterback in the league on deep throws, but Titans receivers have caught EVERY catchable pass he’s thrown. As you can see with all the red on the chart … that’s not normal. That chart was made before the Raiders game, but Tennessee’s receivers continued to be perfect on deep targets, hauling in all three of Tannehill’s catchable deep targets.
Like Tannehill’s play under pressure or in the play-action passing game, this is not going to continue. And “this” is what the Titans would be paying for if they did give him a new contract. Occam’s Razor needs to be applied here. What’s more likely: That Tannehill turned into one of the league’s best quarterbacks overnight or the six-year sample of play is more representative of his true talent?
The answer is pretty obvious.
I’ve always considered Tannehill an underrated quarterback. He’s solid in just about every facet of quarterback play and can look good in the right system, as we’re seeing now. But he does nothing overly well and will always be the product of what’s around him. What is that worth? That’s a tricky question, but the answer probably isn’t “$27 million.” If the Titans can work out a multi-year deal that allows them to bail at the first sign of trouble, then, by all means, do it. But if Tannehill’s camp is looking to cash in on this hot run on the open market (and it probably should) then a reset at the quarterback position is probably best.
Tannehill’s breakout season is eerily similar to Case Keenum’s breakout season in 2017. Keenum also thrived under pressure. He dominated in the play-action passing game. He had Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen hauling in every deep pass he threw. The Vikings realized it was a fluke. John Elway fell for the mirage and gave him too much money.
What will the Titans do?
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