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The Toronto Maple Leafs (2-2-0) and Tampa Bay Lightning (2-2-1) meet Saturday at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Maple Leafs racked up 13 total goals in the first 2 games, with C Auston Matthews going for a pair of hat tricks, and all was well. Someone turned off the spigot in the past 2 games, with Toronto managing just a single goal in each of the outings, both losses.
The Lightning have been trying to keep their heads above water with Andrei Vasilevskiy sidelined until at least late November after back surgery. The Lightning have allowed at least 3 goals in all 5 outings, with the Over going 3-1-1 to date.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Lightning +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170) | Lightning +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (2-1-0, 3.67 GAA, .861 SV%) vs. Jonas Johansson (2-1-1, 3.53 GAA, .894 SV%)
Samsonov had his best outing to date in Florida Thursday, allowing just 2 goals on 23 shots, but he suffered his first loss of the season due to the lack of offensive support. He had allowed 9 goals in his first 2 starts, yet won both.
Johansson is confirmed to start Saturday. He has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his 4 starts, while posting a 2-0-0 record, 3.00 GAA and .900 SV% in 2 home outings.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 3
The MAPLE LEAFS (-135) are a strong play to bounce back after the loss in Florida. Toronto gained a lot of confidence by ousting the Lightning (+115) in the postseason, snapping a lengthy playoff series drought in the process. In the regular season, Toronto has won 4 of the past 5 meetings overall, including 4 straight regular-season trips to Amalie Arena.
The Leafs have won 7 of the past 9 road games dating back to last season, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games when playing on a day of rest.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Lightning +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than 2 times your return, should you require a little insurance. If you like Tampa Bay, just play it straight up.
AVOID.
Over/Under
The Over/Under 7 is a risky play, as I think the total comes down exactly on the number.
With the Over cashing in 10 of the past 11 meetings in Tampa, and 14 of the past 19 meetings overall, the lean is to play Over, and taking a chance on the ALTERNATE LINE – OVER 6.5 (-155) is worth playing lightly.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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