The Celtics’ cakewalk to a championship might signal its time to change the NBA’s playoff format

This isn’t taking away anything from the Celtics! It’s just making a more entertaining product

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a fantastic week and have an even better weekend ahead of you.

Celtics fans, I don’t want you to be mad at me today. Your team will probably win the NBA championship tonight — it feels like a sweep is coming. If it doesn’t happen tonight, then it’ll probably happen the very next game.

READ MORE: The Mavericks and Oilers have given us two incredibly awful Finals

Congratulations! The Celtics deserve it! Boston has been the best team in the NBA all season long. This team deserves to win the NBA Finals for plenty of reasons. The Celtics have earned their place among the greatest teams in NBA history.

That said, I think it’s fair to mention Boston’s relatively easy path to this point. The Celtics had a cakewalk through the Eastern Conference. Boston didn’t have to play a 50-win team until the Mavericks in the Finals.

As we discussed, injuries decimated every team the Celtics saw in these playoffs. That’s not uncommon — you need a bit of injury luck to make deep playoff runs and the Celtics have had plenty of it outside of Kristaps Porzingis. But, in the East, their competition wasn’t up to snuff.

Meanwhile, in the West, the Mavericks had to claw their way through the Clippers (51 wins), the Thunder (57 wins) and the Timberwolves (56 wins). The West has generally been a tougher conference than the East over the last 30 years, but this season shows us exactly how stark that difference is. The best teams in the West totally beat each other down while the Celtics just cruised to the Finals.

To be fair to Boston, that’s not the Celtics’ problem. The team played who it had to play and dominated the competition. This team had three 50+ point wins in a season — we can’t (and shouldn’t!) try to take anything away from that. There are no asterisks here.

I just think that if there was ever a time to consider switching the NBA’s playoff format from a two-conference situation to a 1-16 seeding format, then this is that time.

The league has discussed it before—it was even reportedly close to happening at one point when the NBA was restarting during the pandemic. With how dominant the West has traditionally been, it makes sense to consider it.

Obviously, logistical issues would need to be resolved. Boston traveling to, say, Sacramento for a 1-seed vs. 16-seed matchup would be an issue. But I think there are creative ways to get around that, whether finding neutral sites to host playoff games or even shortening early rounds so that the travel is less hectic.

But I think this format would solve a core problem the NBA has had over the decades: Teams in the West are presented with tougher matchups early on in the postseason than their counterparts in the East. This year’s Nuggets and Timberwolves series felt like the NBA Finals. I’m not sure the Celtics have played a series that’s felt like the Finals yet.

Part of that is just how good that team is. Another part, though, is that they just haven’t gotten any real competition. And maybe there isn’t any. Maybe they’re just that good.

But, man, I would’ve loved to see it.


It’s not Luka’s time

(Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)

I really, really hate the word “exposed” when it comes to discourse about the NBA today.

Folks always use the term in a way that feels so absolutist. If a player’s flaws are “exposed” then the book is written on them. Everyone has to be this weird image of perfection, but no one ever is. So it doesn’t matter.

That said, I do feel like “exposed” is the right word to characterize what the Celtics have done to Luka Doncic in these Finals. He’s not a great defender. I wouldn’t even call him a good one — especially at his size. And the Celtics have driven right at him over and over and over again in these Finals to kickstart their offense. It’s been a huge problem.

Down 3-0 in the Finals, Doncic is acknowledging his defensive shortcomings, our Robert Zeglinski writes. And he’s ready to learn from it.

“It’s not unprecedented for stars of Doncic’s mold to experience a little heartbreak before they finally break through. Losing and learning where you have to improve to succeed has been a rite of passage for every major star in NBA history. Everyone from Michael Jordan and LeBron James to Nikola Jokic went through this kind of challenging trial in some capacity.

Doncic knows what next steps he has to take to lift the Mavericks over the top. That’s half the battle. And no matter what happens during the rest of these Finals, he still has plenty of time to grow.”

The path is there for Doncic. You don’t lead a team to the NBA Finals by osmosis – you’ve got to be good enough to do this. He is.

Let’s see if he’s ready to do what it takes to get better.

Shootaround

— Pat McAfee is stoking the flames of the Woj vs. Shams beef. Here’s Zeglinski with more

— Dan Hurley denies that he used the Lakers as a leverage play. We all know what it is, though. Bryan Kalbrosky has more.

— Speaking of Bryan, our latest NBA Mock Draft is out. Take a peek and see who your favorite team is picking.

— Brian Windhorst had a brutally honest take about Luka that should stick with him for a long time. Charles Curtis has more.

That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for reading Layup Lines today. We’ll be back at it again next week. Until then! Peace.

-Sykes ✌️

Dan Hurley would be a better hire for the Lakers than JJ Redick but it’d still be a risky proposition

Is Dan Hurley the fix the Lakers think he is? History says he may not be.

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a fantastic week so far.

When Adrian Wojnarowski first broke the news that the Lakers were seriously considering UConn’s Dan Hurley as the team’s new head coach, I couldn’t help but make jokes.

I mean, the Kendrick vs. Drake comparison between Woj and Shams Charania was right there. Shams says Redick is the guy for weeks and then — BOOM — here comes Woj blowing all of that to smithereens in one morning. It was hilarious.

But after taking a bit of time to think about it, I think I would actually like the hire. I’d especially like it over Redick, who I still believe is being considered partially because of his excellent podcast chemistry with LeBron James.

Facts are facts, and Hurley has coached his team to a college championship in back-to-back years. He’s got years of experience on different benches across the sport. I think he’s more of a proven commodity than Redick is, and he’d also be good for the Lakers’ young guys (especially if Bronny James is actually happening).

But, again, facts are facts. And while I do think this might be a good hire, plenty of recent history suggests it’s probably not the right move for the Lakers to make.

Plenty of teams in the NBA have hired head college coaches recently. The results have ranged from pretty, pretty, pretty good (shoutout to Larry David, the only man with two first names you should trust) to “wow, that was a dumpster fire.”

  • Brad Stevens: Stevens amassed a 350-281 record with the Celtics and came one game away from an NBA Finals appearance
  • Billy Donovan: Billy Donovan’s 399-319 record with the Bulls is solid, but has never really amounted to anything.
  • Fred Hoiberg: Speaking of the Bulls, Hoibgerg’s 115-155 record with Chicago was pretty dreadful.
  • John Beilein: John Beilein didn’t even last a full season with the Cavaliers before getting the boot.

The results there are mixed, at best. Larry Brown is probably the most prominent example of a coach who jumped from college to the pros and reached the mountaintop of the league. Stevens has come close. But everyone else? It’s been pretty hit or miss.

That doesn’t mean that Hurley would be a bad hire. Maybe he bucks the trend! Who knows? But if recent history tells us anything, the Lakers shouldn’t be so quick to bring him in without exploring other options first.


Tanking helps!

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Look, I know the Mavericks are down horrendously right now to the Celtics. It’s not looking great for them.

But, hey! The fact that Dallas is in the Finals right now is a pretty big accomplishment. It wouldn’t be possible without Dereck Lively II, who wouldn’t even be a Maverick if Dallas didn’t tank at the tail end of last season.

Our Bryan Kalbrosky wrote about how tanking helped the Mavs get to where they are right now with Lively. Dallas was so close to not having this dude.

“If they made the playoffs or if they had worse lottery luck, their draft pick would have gone to the Knicks as part of the 2019 deal for Porzingis. But instead, they ended up with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Fortunately for the Mavericks, they were able to retain the pick. Dallas easily could have shopped the pick around to try to get immediate value by trading for a veteran. Instead, they selected Dereck Lively II from Duke and became one of the biggest winners of draft night.”

Now, you can’t even imagine the Mavericks playing without him. The team literally would not be where it is.

I know we all hate tanking—it’s an affront to the game and makes for bad basketball. But the results are the results, folks. It works.

Wish my Wizards luck, please.

Shootaround

This Taylor Rooks meme is so funny, man. I hope it never goes away. Meg Hall has more.

— JJ Redick gives Doris Burke a big shoutout for her historical moment during this year’s NBA Finals broadcast. Here’s Bryan with more.

— Here’s Blake Schuster on Adam Silver apologizing to Inside the NBA for this prolonged (and public!) media rights negotiation from the NBA.

— Jaylen Brown might be my Finals MVP off this dunk alone.

That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for reading today. We appreciate you. Have a fantastic weekend. Peace.

-Sykes ✌️

The Timberwolves’ path back to the Western Conference Finals in the future might not be as easy as you think

The path back to the WCF is not going to be an easy (or cheap!) one for Minnesota

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a great week and have an even better weekend ahead of you.

Things didn’t go so well for the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday night when the Mavs bounced them out of the playoffs. The Wolves lost 124-103, and somehow, it was one of those games where the score was a lot closer than the game was. We’re talking about a 21-point loss here. It was that bad.

READ MORE: The Timberwolves got off to such a bad start that Ernie Johnson swore on Inside the NBA

The natural reflex for people after the loss usually sounded something like this: “Don’t worry — the Wolves will be back.”

That’s a reasonable take. After all, the team’s 22-year-old superstar in Anthony Edwards is only getting better. He’s not even close to reaching his prime yet he’s already carried this team this far. Expecting a higher climb in the near future makes plenty of sense.

While I fully believe in Ant-Man’s power and his ability to carry this team, I am not sure that this team will be taking the next step anytime soon. It’s not because of anything the Timberwolves are doing or have done — it’s because of what they might not be able to do.

The NBA’s new luxury tax rules make it extremely hard for teams already spending a ton of money to get any better. The Wolves fall into that category.

When Anthony Edwards’ extension finally kicks in next season, Minnesota will around $194 million in salary on their books, according to HoopsHype’s salary data. If the Timberwolves don’t make a move to shake things up, that puts them firmly over the luxury tax for next season at $171.3 million and well into the tax’s second apron, at around $190 million, per Yahoo! Sports.

If the Wolves are a second-apron team, it’s going to be hard to get better. Being in that second apron takes away access to key roster building tools like:

  • The ability to make sign-and-trades to acquire players
  • The ability to use the tax-payer mid-level exception to sign new players
  • Sending out cash in trades for things like extra picks
  • The ability to take back more money in any trade made

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. There’s a lot more that ESPN’s Bobby Marks goes over here. The point is, though, that the Wolves will have to find creative ways to get better while not taking on any money. That’s hard to do in the NBA.

Maybe Minnesota doesn’t have to — it could be a matter of internal improvement. Run it back with the same team, and they’ll likely still be competitive. This was a 56-win team, after all.

But don’t be surprised if the Wolves don’t do much this offseason. The new collective bargaining agreement might not let them.

There’s still basketball to watch, folks

Caitlin Clark #22 and Aliyah Boston #7 of the Indiana Fever react during the first quarter against the Connecticut Sun in the game at Mohegan Sun Arena on May 14, 2024 in Uncasville, Connecticut
(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

I know we’ve got a minute before the first game of the NBA Finals tips off — there’s a long time between now and June 6. But don’t be like Nike and completely forget that there’s still other basketball being played.

Meg Hall has your fix for you here:

“We get it. There’s almost a week until the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks meet for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and you’re just not quite sure what to do without basketball. There’s no Luka Doncic around to troll fans ruthlessly, and there’s no Jaylen Brown here to be transparently and hysterically honest.

But there is the WNBA ― something the Nike basketball account forgot ― who has a staggering 16 matchups until the Celtics and Mavs take the floor.”

The WNBA is in full swing, and now is a good time to catch up on the league if you’ve been entrenched in the NBA playoffs. With a full 16-game slate this weekend, you’ve got plenty to watch. Tap in.

READ MORE: Here’s Meg with the WNBA’s weekend schedule for you


Shootaround

Luka Doncic wants to keep Inside the NBA around. Make it happen, TNT. Charles Curtis has more. 

— Here’s Robert Zeglinski chronicling all of the terrible votes Kendrick Perkins has ever made. Maybe he should stop voting on all NBA awards and not just DPOY.

Anthony Edward’s new sneaker commercial is so perfect. Maybe he really is MJ.

— Stephen A. Smith is blaming LeBron James for Bronny’s rising stock in the draft, but he should really blame his employer.

That’s a wrap, folks. Thanks so much for rocking with Layup Lines this week. We’ll be back on Monday with more. Until then! Peace.

-Sykes ✌️

The Celtics are looking vulnerable for the first time since last year’s playoffs

The Celtics should be so much better than this.

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you have a fantastic weekend ahead of you.

We’ve got some good games on the slate tonight between the Wolves-Nuggets and the Pacers-Knicks series. But, man, is anybody else as stuck on the Celtics-Cavs series as I am?

I don’t know what it was about that game. We’ve seen this Celtics team get blown out before. It happened in Boston’s first-round series against Miami.

But doesn’t it feel like Boston is as vulnerable as ever right now? That’s what it feels like to me.

The Celtics’ live-and-die by the 3-pointer philosophy bit it against Cleveland on Thursday. The C’s shot a paltry 8-35 from deep in Game 2 while allowing Cleveland to dominate inside with 60 points in the paint.

That’s not Celtics basketball. Well, at least it hasn’t been. Not this year.

Boston was 37-4 this year at home. The Celtics have already lost two home games in these playoffs. It’s not just the fact that Boston lost, but how it happened. Especially in this latest Game 2.

This is the same thing that came back to bite Boston against Miami in 2023. This team that relies way too much on jump shooting just…inexplicably goes cold. Derrick White suddenly isn’t Steph Curry. Jayson Tatum’s steady diet of tough shots isn’t good enough. Jaylen Brown’s rim attacks aren’t working. Add the Celtics missing Kristaps Porzingis because of his calf injury to the mix, and you’ve got a pretty troubling path forward for a team everyone expects to win a championship.

Tatum isn’t worried about it. He was asked about the Celtics’ shooting after the game and told reporters “Sometimes, you just don’t make them.” And he’s right — the NBA is a make-or-miss league more often than it isn’t.

But something has got to give. This feels like a story we’ve seen before. And if we see it again this year? Whew, boy. Boston is going to have a lot of questions to answer.


Budenholzer is back, baby

Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Budenholzer will reportedly be taking the reigns in Phoenix after the Suns dismissed Frank Vogel earlier this week, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

On the one hand, I’m glad to see this guy back in coaching. I won’t say he shouldn’t have been fired, but so many teams should’ve been calling him before Phoenix.

  • This is a guy with a 484-317 record in the NBA as a head coach. He’s got the goods.
  • And, sure, he’s got a bunch of postseason gaffes on his resume. But he’s also an NBA champion. He’s proven — the exact type of coach Phoenix wants.

On the other hand, I’m not sure how great of a fit this will be. It’ll depend on how Phoenix maneuvers this offseason, but Budenholzer’s defenses usually revolve around having size in the middle of the floor for rim protection. And, uh, let’s just say Phoenix is a bit short on that right now.

It’ll be difficult to craft this roster that fits traditional Bud teams, considering the team-building constraints Phoenix faces as a second-apron luxury tax team. We’ll see how they do this.

Regardless, it’s good to see Bud back in the game. He deserves another shot.

RELATED: Mat Ishbia is ruining the Phoenix Suns all by himself

Shootaround

— We now know why Luka Doncic and all the reporters heard NSFW noises after Game 2 vs. OKC. This is hilarious. Charles Curtis has more.

— This Timberwolves – NWO Wolfpac mashup is GOLD for any wrestling fans out there. Christian D’Andrea has more.

The NBA’s MVP award continues to grow worldwide. Here’s Robert Zeglinski with more.

— Here’s Robert Zeglinski again on why Patrick Beverley’s suspension doesn’t even matter at this point.

That’s a wrap, folks. We’ll chat again next week. Until then, peace. Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there!

-Sykes ✌️

Victor Wembanyama’s shot at Rudy Gobert shows us just how serious he is about winning

Victor Wembanyama is going to be THAT GUY. But you already knew that.

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments, and concerns in this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a fantastic week.

Let’s talk about Victor Wembanyama today because we don’t talk about Victor Wembanyama enough.

With the NBA’s pillars in LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant coming to the end of their careers soon, the whole “face of the league” thing has become one of the most popular subjects folks like to discuss.

Everyone wants to know who the next torch bearer for the NBA is going to be? Giannis Antetokounmpo thinks it might be multiple players. Others believe a charismatic player like Anthony Edwards can do it. There are certainly plenty of good answers out there.

But for me? It’s Big Vic, man. This dude just has the juice.

Part of being the face of the NBA is not just having a great game — plenty of players have that. The other part of it is just being a great quote. You’ve got to want that spotlight. You have to know the right things to say when. And the things you say have to be interesting.

We know Wemby has the game to do it — he’s not even averaging 30 minutes a night and is putting up impressive numbers. But that’s not what lets me know that he’s ready to be the guy in the NBA.

It’s the moments like this that get me.

What you’re hearing in that video is Vic responding in French to a question about competing with Rudy Gobert for Defensive Player of the Year this year.

Here’s a translation for you: “I know that Rudy [Gobert] has a very good chance of winning it this year and it would be deserved. But let him win it now, because afterward it’s no longer his turn.”

That’s some unreal confidence from this kid. He’s talking about a three-time (likely soon to be four) Defensive Player of the Year like this, who is also one of his NBA mentors, by the way.

Wembanyama doesn’t care. If you’re not with him, you’re against him. And he’s coming for you.

This is the sort of confidence people love. It’s what makes people root for you. The Spurs only have 14 wins, but you wouldn’t know it from the way Wembanyama talks about himself and his team. With that quote, he’s literally selling you, me, and everyone else on his future as one of the best defensive players this league has ever seen.

Might that come back to bite him? Sure. It’s possible. But Wembanyama not being afraid of that spotlight — not being afraid of failure — is exactly why Wemby will be the player we’re all glued to moving forward.

Well, that and his ability to make grown men look like 5-year-olds.

Joe Mazzulla is the best

I don’t know about y’all, man. But Joe Mazzulla has always given me that “I should be out there with those guys” vibes while coaching from the sideline.

I mean, think about it. He’s one of the youngest coaches in the NBA. He played basketball at a pretty high level himself, too. I guarantee you that Joe Mazzulla thinks he can get out there and contribute. He’s a rotation player in his mind.

That’s why I wasn’t shocked when he tried to block Royce O’Neale’s shot after a timeout. Charles Curtis spotted it for us here.

This man is a nut. Here he is attempting the block in real-time.

Man. Come on. I’d love to play for that guy.

READ MORE: Here’s more from Charles Curtis on this hilarious move from Mazzulla. 

The Curry Brand adds another star

(Photo by Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images)

Steph Curry’s namesake brand with Under Armour has been on a tear over the last few months.

De’Aaron Fox was the first athlete other than Curry himself to be added to the brand back in October. Now, the brand is extending into the college ranks with an NIL deal for South Carolina’s star freshman point guard Milaysia Fulwiley.

The deal was announced with this slick video here:

That’s a big move. Fulwiley is the second athlete to join the Curry Brand, which is a huge deal. The connection is there — South Carolina is an Under Armour school. She’ll be able to wear the best Curry and the brand have to offer on the court, unlike other athletes with NIL deals that conflict with their school’s sponsors.

I’m excited to see what the Curry Brand cooks up for Fulwiley over these next few years. She’s a special one. Good times are ahead.

Shootaround

— Bryan Kalbrosky put together a mist-read breakdown on why Bronny James declaring for the draft is so complicated

— This has got to be the funniest steal I’ve ever seen in my life. Has to be.

— Here’s Robert Zeglinski on Jamal Murray selflessly benching himself for Reggie Jackson in the 4th quarter.

— Chris Paul giving a ref a tech is every hooper’s dream. Here’s Bryan again with more.

That’s all, folks! Thanks so much for reading Layup Lines today. We’ll chat again next week! Until then! Peace. Be easy.

-Sykes

The Washington Wizards have hit rock bottom and somehow things are only getting worse

The Wizards have somehow become worse than the Pistons

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a great week and have a better weekend ahead of you.

Mine? Oh, it going great until Thursday night. I watched my Wizards fumble away a win against LeBron James and the Lakers.

This has got to be the most painful season I’ve ever endured as a fan of this team. And y’all know me, man — I’ve been through some stuff with this team. That Clippers comeback. The John Wall thing. Spencer Dinwiddie. Just…ugh.

Somehow, though, this season sits on a pedestal of suckitude alone. The Wizards are a laughingstock. Only having nine wins so far this season already felt like rock bottom. It certainly is. But, as it turns out, things are only getting worse.

Washington didn’t win a single game in February — the team went 0-12. You have to call the team the Ashington Izards now. The Ws are gone. I would say throw some Ls in front of that but I also feel like actual Lizards might be insulted.

I don’t know when the next Wizards win might come. There’s no “get right” game on the schedule. The Wizards are the “get right” team everyone looks forward to. The team can’t play itself. If it did, it’d obviously lose. Yes, it’s that bad.

We’re still quite a bit away from the Wizards potentially breaking the Piston’s streak, but I’ll tell you what: It does feel possible.

It’s hard to pinpoint where the team’s next win will come from.

Washington’s next five games are: @ L.A. Clippers, @ Utah Jazz, vs. Orlando Magic, vs. Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat.

Of those five, maybe the Hornets’ game can be a win? The Jazz also aren’t playing the greatest, though that’s a road matchup. The Wizards might be able to steal a game or two from one of these teams during this stretch.

But nothing here is clear. None of these games are guaranteed. And, if Washington doesn’t get one here, we could be looking at another all-time losing streak like the one we saw from Detroit earlier this year.

The basketball gods, man. They’re so cruel.

The 40-20 rule

Jan 19, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) works the ball around Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (8) in the second quarter at TD Garden.
Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Zeglinski is using an old Phil Jackson rule to determine which team might win the championship this season.

The rule is this: Generally, the NBA champion is going to be a team that wins 40 games before it loses 20 games. He explains more here:

“The 11-time champion coach with the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers once said that for a team to be a true “elite” championship contender, it must win 40 games before losing 20. Now, that might seem like a random barometer that Jackson thought up out of thin air. But when you look at NBA history, it’s actually a fantastic indicator of who has a realistic chance of winning the title.

That’s because 27 of the last 30 NBA champions won 40 games before losing 20. Dearest readers, that is 90 percent of all title winners in recent memory.”

If we’re going by 40-20 rule logic, we’ve got four legitimate contenders: The Celtics, the Timberwolves, the Nuggets and the Thunder.

We’ll revisit this once we get to the Finals.

Shootaround

— Here’s Bryan Kalbrosky with the latest mock draft. Of course, the Wizards are picking at No. 1.

— Shaq trying to bait Charles Barkley into giving an OnlyFans shoutout on the air is incredible content. Here’s Charles Curtis with more.

— Prince Grimes has the best bets for division winners in the NBA. That Southwest division is going crazy right now.

— Here’s the latest Morning Win on Caitlin Clark and the false idea of a pay cut waiting for her in the WNBA.

That’s a wrap, folks! We’ll be back on Monday. Until next time! Peace. We out.

-Sykes ✌️

Rich Paul’s denial of LeBron James trade rumors shows us exactly how cooked the Lakers are

The Lakers just don’t seem to know what to do anymore

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you’ve had a fantastic week so far.

I’m almost certain it was probably less chaotic than the Lakers’ week was. Because, whew boy, what a mess it’s been.

LA starts the week off with two back-to-back 16-point losses to the Rockets and Hawks respectively. Then, LeBron James does his passive-aggressive emoji Tweet thing again and the internet explodes. At that point, it’s only Wednesday.

On Thursday, the team gets a good win over the Celtics without James and Anthony Davis playing, but it gets overshadowed by LEBRON JAMES TRADE RUMORS. You cannot make this up.

Rich Paul released a statement on Friday saying the Lakers wouldn’t be trading James (which is so ironic coming from a player agent, btw!) and that James is not actively seeking a trade. So there’s that on that, I guess.

But, wait. Isn’t this kind of weird? Have we ever seen this before?

Sure, people have talked about James being traded before. But that was more media speculation than anything. There was nothing credible that said James would be on the move. And, most importantly, it never felt real.

This current moment we’re in doesn’t feel like it’s real, but it also does feel possible. And, clearly, there’s enough here today for Rich Paul to come out and actively say “Hey, my guy isn’t getting moved.” That speaks volumes to how down the Lakers are right now.

Things are horrendous. The team has floated around at .500 essentially all season. James and Davis have largely been healthy, too — there’s no using that excuse this time. The Lakers just aren’t…very good. And there’s no move out there that might be able to improve this team except for, well, trading one of its two stars.

That’s exactly why Paul felt the need to come out and dispel things this time. Because, for the first time in a long time, LeBron James might not be enough to save his team.

That’s the reality that we’re seeing. It’s what the Lakers — and James, himself, for that matter —  have to live with.

A $1.3 million snub

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

All-Star snubs are almost always devastating. But when they’re tied to money? Whew, boy, that has to hurt a little worse.

We can ask Domantas Sabonis about that today. A clause in the King’s big man’s contract would’ve activated giving him a $1.3 million bonus had he made an All-Star team this year. He missed out, meaning he doesn’t get that cash.

Here’s Bryan Kalbrosky with more.

“The three-time All-Star had tough competition to represent the Western Conference. Sabonis ranked top-10 among all frontcourt players in the West when it came to fan voting, player voting, and media voting.

That put him ahead of Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns in weighted rank, but reserves are chosen by the 30 coaches in the NBA. Towns made the team (perhaps surprisingly) while Sabonis was not selected.

But his omission was the most costly among the potential candidates. As noted by ESPN’s Bobby Marks, not making the All-Star Game will cost him a $1.3 million bonus from the Kings.

Sabonis currently ranks fifth-best among all NBA players in win shares, which is an advanced catch-all metric that measures overall value to a team. He trails only MVP frontrunners Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.”

That’s tough. I’ll never wish injury on anyone, but if there’s an injury replacement Sabonis might still be able to get in. But you hate to see him have to rely on someone else’s downfall to get a spot here — especially considering the season he’s had.

The Decision

Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

Nneka Ogwumike might shift the balance of power in the WNBA over the weekend.

After six seasons in Los Angeles, Ogwumike is leaving the Sparks and looking to play for a contender as LA kicks off its rebuild. Some potential powerhouses are in the mix between the Chicago Sky, New York Liberty and Seattle Storm, ESPN reports.

This decision could shift the balance of power in the WNBA drastically.

— New York is already a superteam with Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu. Adding Ogwumike to this mix along with the elite guard play around them would likely make New York a Finals favorite.

— The Storm would be scary here, too. Seattle has an elite backcourt between Jewell Loyd and the addition of Skylar Diggins-Smith. Adding Ogwumike to that mix is scary for the West.

— The Chicago Sky would have a combo of Kahleah Copper and Ogwumike if she chooses to sign there. Not a Big 3, sure, but still a scary team, certainly.

We don’t know when a decision is coming, but it’ll likely be soon considering how much movement there has already been.

Keep it locked on our WNBA free agency tracker for an update when the moment comes.

Shootaround

— Jalen Brunson holding back tears during MVP chants from the Knicks crowd is the stuff dreams are made of. Bryan has more here.

Bill Walton hilariously thinks Chewbacca is based on him. No, seriously.

— Here’s Mary Clarke on Joel Embiid falling out of the MVP race because of his meniscus injury.

— Here are 10 potential injury replacements for the All-Star game from Bryan. The East might need a couple.

The Knicks should be considered legitimate contenders but New York still has plenty of work to do

It’s time we started taking the Knicks seriously.

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, winners! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you have a great weekend ahead of you.

I think we need to talk about the Knicks today, man. This team is trending in the right direction.

New York just beat up the Nuggets in a 122-84 route. Denver is a team with championship expectations. It’s essentially the same team that just won an NBA championship last season, give or take a few tweaks to the roster.

So, that begs the question, how close are the Knicks to actual contention? Is this team already a contender? If we take a look at the team’s statistical profile right now, the answer is a yes. At the very least, it’s extremely close.

First, the Knicks’ 117.6 offensive rating (9th overall) and 112.0 defensive rating (8th overall) are both good for top-10 marks in the league, according to NBA.com’s stats tool. The Knicks are one of five teams in the NBA ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive ratings. The others are the Celtics, Thunder, 76ers, and Pelicans. Most people would consider at least three of those four teams legitimate contenders.

The team’s 5.5 total net rating ranks 5th in the league, which is good and usually signals a pretty good playoff team. The only teams ahead of the Knicks are the Celtics (+10.2), Thunder (+8.3), 76ers (+7.9) and Clippers (+5.7). Again, all of those teams are contenders. The Knicks should be in that conversation, too.

Do the Knicks have lots of room to grow? Certainly. New York is only 2-11 against the Celtics, Bucks and 76ers so far this season. Most of those games were played earlier in the year and this is a different team. But still, that’s why most would consider the Knicks a step behind the competition ahead of them in the East.

The OG Anunoby trade has changed things though. If you zoom in a bit more, since then the team’s net rating is a whopping +12.9 which is good for second in the league behind the Cavaliers at +16.7. The Knicks are 11-3 in that 14-game span.

There’s a lot of basketball left to be played. But New York is good. OG is the defensive wing the team has needed for quite some time. There’s someone who can guard folks like Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo now.

The games still have to be played. And the Knicks are the Knicks, so it’s understandable why people still don’t believe in this team. New York has failed in the playoffs for decades now.

But, man. This team feels a bit different. Whether it is or not will only be proven by time. But right now? Things are looking good in New York.

Trade SZN is upon us, folks!

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

So, naturally, our Bryan Kalbrosky put together a primer for you with the 10 biggest names on the trade block and how much it’d cost to get them.

There are lots of familiar names on that list. You’ve seen rumors floating around about DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray and more. But one name that really caught me off guard here was Alex Caruso.

It’s not the fact that he’s on the list. Rather, it’s the fact that the Bulls are asking for so much for him. The Bulls want multiple first-rounders, Bryan writes. Here’s more:

“Alex Caruso has tremendous value due to his elite defensive ability and clutch performances. We wrote about why last season and earlier this season, we outlined which contenders should try to make a move.

But the Bulls consider Caruso as “almost” untouchable, according to Chicago Sun-Times‘ Joe Cowley. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Shams Charania has said that the team has “shut down” calls on the defensive ace.”

Sheesh, man. I get it. Alex Caruso is good. He’s almost shooting 50 percent from the floor and is shooting over 40 percent form deep. He’s putting up career-high scoring numbers this season.

But he’s still a 29-year-old 3-and-D guard without elite shot-creation ability. That’s a really good and useful player. Just probably not an untouchable one.

Shootaround

Angel Reese and Hailey Van Lith doing the Dramond-KD thing on accident made my day. Charles Curtis has more here.

— Here are all the All-Star starters and the team captains announced on Thursday. Giannis is the leader this time — what a twist!

— The Bucks owing three coaches $18 million is even hurting my wallet. Bryan Kalbrosky has more here.

— Speaking of Knicks fans, y’all leave Candace Parker alone. Here’s Meghan Hall with more.

That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for reading Layup Lines today! We appreciate you. Have a fantastic weekend. We’ll be back again on Monday! Til then, peace. We out.

-Sykes

The Nuggets weren’t being petty by letting Nikola Jokic wear No. 15 after Carmelo Anthony

No. 15 belongs to Nikola Jokic now. Sorry, Melo.

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines. Thanks so much for joining me today. I hope you have an excellent weekend ahead of you. We’ve got lots of MLK Day hoops on Monday, too! Should be fun.

Let’s talk about Carmelo Anthony for a second. And, actually, Nikola Jokic, too.

These two Denver Nuggets legends are linked by a single number: Fifteen. Both of them wore No. 15 during their time in Denver. Anthony’s time is over. Jokic is still carving out his illustrious career while gracing the number they share.

For whatever reason, though, the fact that they share this number seems to bother Anthony just a tad bit.

Most recently, Anthony was asked about it on his “7 pm in Brooklyn” podcast by his co-host, The Kid Mero. He thinks the Nuggets were being “petty” and just gave Jokic No. 15 after he left.

“It was a petty maneuver. It wasn’t like ‘yo, we’ve got numbers to choose from.’ It was like ‘here, you’ve got 15’,” Anthony said. “He could’ve wore it just because he wanted to pay homage. I don’t know. But what I believe is that they gave him 15 to try to erase what I did.” 

I’ve got to be honest. I just don’t buy that. It doesn’t logically make sense when you think about it.

Nikola Jokic has worn No. 15 with the Nuggets for his entire career. Don’t forget, folks: He was drafted as a mid-second-round pick by the Nuggets in 2014. I can’t fathom the Nuggets thinking that he’d be this good. I don’t know if they thought he could “erase” Anthony’s history in Denver, as he says here.

Now, did they show a lack of concern for Anthony’s time there by allowing someone else to wear it? Sure! I can buy that. I mean, even before Jokic wore it, the Nuggets allowed Anthony Randolph to wear it. The number just wasn’t a big deal to Denver.

And why would it be? Denver wasn’t thinking about extending a courtesy to the guy who forced his way out of the city. To be honest, that’s totally fair. Anthony wasn’t owed that. He still isn’t.

It’s clear, though, that he’d like the number retired in his name. He said as much back in 2019 in The Athletic. “This is where it should be retired, to be honest with you,” Anthony said. “Just my opinion, man. The history is here. This is where it all started. Maybe not because Joker’s got 15 now. We’ll see.”

The number certainly will be retired someday, but it certainly won’t be in Anthony’s name. Jokic is a two-time MVP and a champion. He’s been a better Denver Nugget with a better overall career. That’s his to own now.

Carmelo will always hold a special place in a lot of NBA fans’ hearts. But that’s something he’s going to have to accept.

Draft Day(s)

Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Some NBA goodness from around the USA TODAY Sports network.

Well, folks. The NBA has done it. The NBA draft will reportedly be two days this summer. The league will do the first round on one day and the second round on the next, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

Here’s more:

“Among a number of reasons for the expansion of the event, including the programming for television rights partners, the NBA and teams are hopeful that the hours between Wednesday night’s first round and Thursday’s second round will give teams more time to make trades and plan out strategies for the second night.”

As our Bryan Kalrbosky writes here, not many fans were thrilled about this news. That second day is probably not going to be very interesting.

There are some ways the league could potentially spice this up moving forward. For example, what if the NBA did the lottery on Thursday and then knocked out the rest of the draft early on Friday? That might give the second day a bit more juice while also keeping the first day spicy.

We’ll have to wait and see how this works. Hopefully, the NBA can find a way to keep things interesting.

Shootaround

LeBron James and Jungkook are a combo that I never knew I needed to see. Thank you, Usher. Meghan Hall has more here.

— Paige Bueckers might not be so quick to make the jump to the WNBA folks. We’ll see.

— Here are the players to keep watch on this WNBA offseason. Here’s Meghan, again, with more.

That’s all, folks! Thanks so much for rocking with us today. Have a fantastic weekend and enjoy the basketball! Let’s chat again next week.

-Sykes ✌️

The Warriors’ two-timeline experiment has come to its final crossroad and it’s time to make a choice

The Warriors may have fumbled this thing to the point of no return.

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Mike Sykes

Howdy, folks! Welcome back to Layup Lines! Thanks so much for reading the newsletter today. We appreciate you!

The Warriors are back in the news on the NBA side of things and, well, let’s just say it’s not for reasons that will make anyone in Golden State happy.

As my colleague Bryan Kalbrosky wrote, Jonathan Kuminga has reportedly lost his faith in Steve Kerr. He doesn’t believe the Warriors’ long-time head coach will allow him to actualize his full potential.

It’s hard not to see it that way after the Warriors went out in the most feckless way possible to the Denver Nuggets. Kuminga had an excellent first half and essentially rode the bench for the majority of the second half while Golden State squandered yet another win away.

That situation is the trees, though. Let’s talk about the forest.

Remember that whole two-timeline approach the Warriors told us all they were taking a few years ago? That’s dead. It’s done. It’s cooked. It’s over. Call it whatever you want to call it. It’s time for the Warriors to move on.

If you recall, the Warriors planned to continue to have the team’s future Hall of Fame core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green carry Golden State to continued success. Meanwhile, the team would draft and develop young talent that would slowly, but surely, ease the franchise into the future.

Here’s Bob Myers explaining the rationale behind the plan two seasons ago.

“So we thought, let’s just draft the best players who were on the board. A lot of people wanted us to trade them for a star. This is not said in the vein of ‘I told you so,’ but we did think Andrew Wiggins could fill that role. We did. Not a lot of people did. But we wanted to see him in that role of the fourth guy.”

For a while, that worked! In fact, it won the team a championship! Clearly, it worked at some point. The Warriors succeeded with a mixture of veterans and up-and-coming prospects that we don’t typically see success from in the NBA.

Two years later, it’s all fallen apart. Bob Myers is gone — he abandoned ship. Draymond Green can’t stop punching people. Jordan Poole is a Wizard because Draymond Green can’t stop punching people. Klay Thompson is admittedly not the player he once was. Jonathan Kuminga seems to want out because Steve Kerr won’t play him and Moses Moody reportedly feels the same way.

And now, folks, we see the secret of the two-timeline path. It sounds great. It even might work in practice for a while. If you’ve got someone as special as Steph Curry it can work in a big way. But, eventually, chickens come home to roost. You’ve got to choose a path.

The Warriors have to make a choice: Either commit to the team’s younger talent or go down with the ship steered by the core that got Golden State where it is in the first place.

It’s easy for us here to say it’s time to move on. But moving on in practice is tough considering everything everyone on that team has been through.

I don’t envy anyone in that building. But I’m certainly eager to see where this all ends up. The rest of the NBA is, too. Surely, Jonathan Kuminga and a few others on that roster would have more than a few suitors out there.


Pack your bags, Pascal

Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of trades, the Toronto Raptors are reportedly expected to move Pascal Siakam by the time the NBA trade deadline rolls around, according to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.

In an all-encompassing NBA trade piece, Bontemps says that both the Knicks and Raptors will remain active in looking for ways to improve their teams after the OG Anunoby trade.

“While the Knicks continue to search the market, the Raptors will too. League sources expect Toronto to move on from two-time All-Star forward Pascal Siakam before the trade deadline. “

Siakam is an interesting piece. He’s been the Raptors’ best player for the better part of the last four seasons but seems better suited in a role as a secondary scoring option while focusing in on being impactful defensively.

He’s one of those players that — quite literally — every single team in the NBA could use. But he’s also looking for a $50 million payday, which would be a hard pill to swallow for all of those teams, too.

Siakam will still certainly be the darling of the trade deadline if he hasn’t been moved before then. We’ll just have to wait and see how things play out.


Giannis is a Wemby truther

Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

And, folks, let me tell you right now. I stand with him. Because there’s no way that you’re telling me that Victor Wembanyama is just 7-foot-3.

Look, I know that 7-foot-3 is already extremely tall. But Kristaps Porzingis is 7-foot-3. I feel like Wemby is taller than that. Giannis Antetokounmpo does, too, apparently. Here’s more on what he had to say after facing off against him on Thursday from our Bryan Kalbrosky.

“Antetokounmpo, who is listed at 6-foot-11, believes Wembanyama is “way taller” than 7-foot-3 and that whoever reported that the big man was 7-foot-3 was lying to us all. (His height is complicated but he can make other famous people look comically small.)

According to Antetokounmpo, the Spurs rookie is probably 7-foot-4 or 7-foot-5. He also added that the “sky is the limit” (literally and metaphorically) for Wembanyama.”

Believe Giannis, folks. That man is 7-foot-5.


Shootaround

— Our Meghan Hall makes a case for the Women’s NCAA Tournament to be packaged on its own and I think it’s a pretty compelling one.

— The Inside the NBA crew trolled Charles Barkley’s New Year’s resolution. Bryan has more here.

— Three international players might go in the top three of the NBA draft this year. Charles Curtis has more.

Is…Is Robin Lopez OK with mascots now?

That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for reading! Have a fantastic weekend. Peace. Be safe out there. Let’s chat again next week.

-Sykes ✌️