In a welterweight bout on the main card, Miguel Baeza meets Khaos Williams Saturday at UFC Fight Night 197 – also known as UFC Vegas 42. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 197 Baeza vs. Williams odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Baeza enters the octagon standing two inches taller than Williams, but he gives up 2.5 inches in reach. Baeza holds a slim 5.30-to-5.20 significant strikes landed per minute lead, with a 51.01-to-42.73 significant strikes accuracy percentage advantage.
Baeza lost to Santiago Ponzinibbio by unanimous decision his last time out in June, his first loss in four fights at the UFC level. His previous three fights ended as victories via stoppages, including two second-round knockouts.
Williams picked up a unanimous-decision win over Matthew Semelsberger his last time out in June. Like Baeza, Williams is 3-1 in four fights since arriving at the UFC level, with two first-round knockouts and a pair of decisions.
UFC Fight Night 197 Baeza vs. Williams: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:37 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Baeza -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Williams +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -107 | Under -127)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -180)
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UFC Fight Night 197 Baeza vs. Williams: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Baeza (10-1-0) | Williams (12-2-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
I like WILLIAMS (+120) for the slight upset here. These two fighters are very evenly matched, but Khaos is a better value, and I like his slight reach advantage to keep Baeza at bay and perhaps deliver a knockout victory.
As such, WILLIAMS BY KO/TKO (+225) is worth a small-unit play for a chance to more than double up.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a little on the steep side, but it’s worth a look. Both of these guys have a high punch rate and are very energetic, not looking for the judges to decide their fate.
I also like a two-round block on WILLIAMS TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+720) and WILLIAMS TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1500). Yes, you’ll lose one of the ends even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.
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