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No. 24 Michigan State hits the road Saturday (8:00 EST, ESPN) looking for revenge on the No. 9 Maryland Terrapins in what is one of the biggest Big Ten games of the season. Maryland can clinch at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title with a win, while Michigan State can give their (and four other teams’) quest for the title a jump of life with a big road victory. College Gameday will be in College Park for this one and the Xfinity Center is going to be going absolutely hog wild with their team having a shot to clinch a title. This could very well be Michigan State’s toughest test of the year.
Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.
Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.
Overview
Michigan State: 19-9 overall, 11-6 Big Ten
-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 22 in adjusted offense
-No. 13 in adjusted defense
-No. 100 in adjusted tempo
Maryland: 23-5 overall, 13-4 Big Ten
-No. 9 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 24 in adjusted offense
-No. 12 in adjusted defense
-No. 238 in adjusted tempo
These two teams are about as evenly matched as they come. Both have awesome defenses and really good offenses. Michigan State’s defense has been trending up the last month and their offense has been heading in the opposite direction. Maryland has held pretty steady on both sides of the ball all year. The Terps are coming off a nail-biting win on the road against Minnesota. They trailed all game, and by as much as 17, before coming back to win with a deep three pointer with less than two seconds left. That shot and win could very well serve as a catalyst to this team’s closing stretch.
When these two matched up just two weeks ago Maryland led throughout much of the game. Michigan State was sloppy with the ball at times and shot very poorly from three. Despite that the Spartans were able to go on a run, going up 7 with 3:30 remaining only to see Maryland rip off a 14-0 run to close the game on the back of three Antony Cowan three pointers. When Michigan State is at their best, they are better than Maryland. The problem is they haven’t been able to find that best level consistently enough, while the Terps have been consistently very good all year.
Let’s dive into some specifics.
A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 62 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 130 in turnover %, No. 43 in Oreb%, No. 206 in free throw rate
Maryland defense four factors: No. 21 eFG% against, No. 259 in turnover %, No. 114 in Oreb%, No. 19 in FTR
Michigan State’s shooting numbers have been ticking up just slightly of late and they’ll need to have a great shooting night against Maryland. That’ll be tough with the Terps having the No 21 eFG% defense. Maryland is much better at defending twos than threes, so MSU’s shooters are going to have to make open shots from deep. MSU should have a decent advantage on the offensive glass. On the road, offensive rebounding is a great way to generate offense when shooting gets harder and the whistle leans towards the home team. Maryland has an exceptionally good free throw rate against and MSU has struggled to get to the line lately, so I wouldn’t expect much to change there. Lastly, turnovers. Maryland is another team that doesn’t force a ton of turnovers and that will be crucial. After a shaky start against Iowa in terms of turnovers, MSU buckled down and protected the ball much better against the Hawkeyes and they needed to do that, because it took a while for shots to fall. Turnovers for touchdowns will be killer in this game.
When Maryland has the ball
Maryland offensive four factors: No. 231 in eFG%, No. 58 in turnover %, No. 55 in Oreb%, No. 53 in FTR
Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 2 in eFG% against, No. 320 in turnover %, No. 84 in Oreb% against, No. 96 in FTR
Rebounding is going to be so massive on this side of the floor. Maryland does not shoot well and MSU is as good as it gets at forcing misses. Can the Spartans limit Maryland to one shot? If they can, they have a very good chance at keeping Maryland from scoring. Maryland has a couple of guys who can really crash the offensive glass and they’re not all bigs. MSU’s wings are going to have to bring it on the defensive glass. Fouls are always something to be cognizant of and Maryland will probably get to the line a fair amount. They’re a good free throw shooting team too, so limiting their chances at the stripe will also be very important. But rebounding is absolutely the key here. I’d bet a good amount of money that Maryland ends up taking more shots than MSU in this game and MSU has to make sure those shots are as difficult as possible. Offensive put-backs are not difficult shots.
Other key numbers
Maryland ranks 263rd in the country in three point percentage, yet they take 43.2% of their shots from deep. Jalen Smith is their only consistent threat from deep, shooting 36% on 2.75 attempts per game. There will be a lot of missed threes Saturday night and MSU has to make sure they’re rebounding them as best as possible.
Michigan State ranks 27th in block percentage on defense and Maryland ranks 316th in block percentage on offense. While that’s good for MSU, blocks can lead to defenses being out of position for rebounds. This is another specific spot MSU has to be sound in the rebounding game.
Maryland ranks 104th in three-point defense and 13th in two-point defense. Life is going to be much easier on the perimeter for MSU’s offense. Rocket Watts, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry and Kyle Ahrens have to hit shots.
Maryland ranks 316th in steal percentage. They don’t force turnovers by taking the ball away. MSU isn’t going to have much pressure on the ball and they need to take advantage of that by not giving away bad turnovers.
Conclusion
This will probably be Michigan State’s toughest test of the year considering opponent, environment and stakes. MSU is coming off probably their best half of the season against Iowa and they need for Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman to lead them from the jump the way they did against Iowa in the second half. If they do that and two of Henry, Watts, Brown and Ahrens have solid games, Michigan State can absolutely win this game. They’ll need to rebound on defense and make open shots from three when they get them. Those two things are what is most likely to dictate this game. When MSU is at its best, they do those two things quite well. When they’re not, they struggle. KenPom projects this as a 70-67 win for Maryland, a 62% chance of victory.
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