Tag: Kenpom

Hogs basketball checks in at No. 15 in the preseason KenPom rankings

Arkansas basketball finds itself at No. 15 in the most important rankings of the college hoops season.

The official Top 25 for college basketball won’t be released for several more days. But to insiders of the game, the KenPom rankings hold more weight.

Ken Pomeroy, the college basketball analyst and statistician, released his preseason rankings of 358 teams based for the 2021-22 season on Sunday. Arkansas found itself at No. 15.

The Razorbacks are the second highest rated team in the SEC after Tennessee at No. 13. Other SEC teams in the Top 30 include Kentucky at 17, Alabama at 19, Florida at 25 and Auburn at 28.

Arkansas plays Auburn, Alabama, Florida and Kentucky once apiece this year and gets Tennessee twice during SEC play. It’s a very favorite schedule for the Razorbacks, who finished second in the conference last year with a 25-7 and 13-4 record. No team in the league went further into the NCAA Tournament than the Hogs, who made the Elite Eight before falling to eventual national champion Baylor.

Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas and Baylor were the top four teams in the KenPom rankings.

Coach Eric Musselman and the Hogs played in the Red-White scrimmage at Barnhill Arena on Sunday afternoon, giving the public its first look at the team this season.

Wisconsin sits as the No. 3 Big Ten team in the current KenPom ratings

As things stand today before No. 10 Wisconsin takes on No. 15 Ohio State, the Badgers sit at No. 3 in the Big Ten standings with only one

As things stand today before No. 10 Wisconsin takes on No. 15 Ohio State, the Badgers sit at No. 3 in the Big Ten standings with only one game separating them from No. 1 Michigan.

Their top-15 matchup with the Buckeyes is a pivotal one in the Badgers’ quest for another Big Ten regular-season title, though the current KenPom ratings see the matchup a bit different than the AP Poll does.

Those ratings, as seen above, have Wisconsin in at No. 8–good for No. 3 in the conference behind Iowa and Michigan–and Ohio State down at No. 18.

In what has been a chaotic season in the Big Ten thus far to say the least, the ratings directly represent the conference’s standings at the top, though they still see some teams differently than the AP and its voters do.

I think it’s safe to say it’ll be interesting to see how the conference shakes out down the stretch and whether Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin or another team is able to break free at the top.

[listicle id=27811]

Michigan State vs. Maryland basketball round two statistical preview

No. 24 Michigan State hits the road looking for revenge against No. 9 Maryland.

[jwplayer EBPdXA3C-PROpJzTY]

No. 24 Michigan State hits the road Saturday (8:00 EST, ESPN) looking for revenge on the No. 9 Maryland Terrapins in what is one of the biggest Big Ten games of the season. Maryland can clinch at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title with a win, while Michigan State can give their (and four other teams’) quest for the title a jump of life with a big road victory. College Gameday will be in College Park for this one and the Xfinity Center is going to be going absolutely hog wild with their team having a shot to clinch a title. This could very well be Michigan State’s toughest test of the year.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 19-9 overall, 11-6 Big Ten

-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 22 in adjusted offense

-No. 13 in adjusted defense

-No. 100 in adjusted tempo

Maryland: 23-5 overall, 13-4 Big Ten

-No. 9 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 24 in adjusted offense

-No. 12 in adjusted defense

-No. 238 in adjusted tempo

These two teams are about as evenly matched as they come. Both have awesome defenses and really good offenses. Michigan State’s defense has been trending up the last month and their offense has been heading in the opposite direction. Maryland has held pretty steady on both sides of the ball all year. The Terps are coming off a nail-biting win on the road against Minnesota. They trailed all game, and by as much as 17, before coming back to win with a deep three pointer with less than two seconds left. That shot and win could very well serve as a catalyst to this team’s closing stretch.

When these two matched up just two weeks ago Maryland led throughout much of the game. Michigan State was sloppy with the ball at times and shot very poorly from three. Despite that the Spartans were able to go on a run, going up 7 with 3:30 remaining only to see Maryland rip off a 14-0 run to close the game on the back of three Antony Cowan three pointers. When Michigan State is at their best, they are better than Maryland. The problem is they haven’t been able to find that best level consistently enough, while the Terps have been consistently very good all year.

Let’s dive into some specifics.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 62 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 130 in turnover %, No. 43 in Oreb%, No. 206 in free throw rate

Maryland defense four factors: No. 21 eFG% against, No. 259 in turnover %, No. 114 in Oreb%, No. 19 in FTR

Michigan State’s shooting numbers have been ticking up just slightly of late and they’ll need to have a great shooting night against Maryland. That’ll be tough with the Terps having the No 21 eFG% defense. Maryland is much better at defending twos than threes, so MSU’s shooters are going to have to make open shots from deep. MSU should have a decent advantage on the offensive glass. On the road, offensive rebounding is a great way to generate offense when shooting gets harder and the whistle leans towards the home team. Maryland has an exceptionally good free throw rate against and MSU has struggled to get to the line lately, so I wouldn’t expect much to change there. Lastly, turnovers. Maryland is another team that doesn’t force a ton of turnovers and that will be crucial. After a shaky start against Iowa in terms of turnovers, MSU buckled down and protected the ball much better against the Hawkeyes and they needed to do that, because it took a while for shots to fall. Turnovers for touchdowns will be killer in this game.

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offensive four factors: No. 231 in eFG%, No. 58 in turnover %, No. 55 in Oreb%, No. 53 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 2 in eFG% against, No. 320 in turnover %, No. 84 in Oreb% against, No. 96 in FTR

Rebounding is going to be so massive on this side of the floor. Maryland does not shoot well and MSU is as good as it gets at forcing misses. Can the Spartans limit Maryland to one shot? If they can, they have a very good chance at keeping Maryland from scoring. Maryland has a couple of guys who can really crash the offensive glass and they’re not all bigs. MSU’s wings are going to have to bring it on the defensive glass. Fouls are always something to be cognizant of and Maryland will probably get to the line a fair amount. They’re a good free throw shooting team too, so limiting their chances at the stripe will also be very important. But rebounding is absolutely the key here. I’d bet a good amount of money that Maryland ends up taking more shots than MSU in this game and MSU has to make sure those shots are as difficult as possible. Offensive put-backs are not difficult shots.

Other key numbers

Maryland ranks 263rd in the country in three point percentage, yet they take 43.2% of their shots from deep. Jalen Smith is their only consistent threat from deep, shooting 36% on 2.75 attempts per game. There will be a lot of missed threes Saturday night and MSU has to make sure they’re rebounding them as best as possible.

Michigan State ranks 27th in block percentage on defense and Maryland ranks 316th in block percentage on offense. While that’s good for MSU, blocks can lead to defenses being out of position for rebounds. This is another specific spot MSU has to be sound in the rebounding game.

Maryland ranks 104th in three-point defense and 13th in two-point defense. Life is going to be much easier on the perimeter for MSU’s offense. Rocket Watts, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry and Kyle Ahrens have to hit shots.

Maryland ranks 316th in steal percentage. They don’t force turnovers by taking the ball away. MSU isn’t going to have much pressure on the ball and they need to take advantage of that by not giving away bad turnovers.

Conclusion

This will probably be Michigan State’s toughest test of the year considering opponent, environment and stakes. MSU is coming off probably their best half of the season against Iowa and they need for Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman to lead them from the jump the way they did against Iowa in the second half. If they do that and two of Henry, Watts, Brown and Ahrens have solid games, Michigan State can absolutely win this game. They’ll need to rebound on defense and make open shots from three when they get them. Those two things are what is most likely to dictate this game. When MSU is at its best, they do those two things quite well. When they’re not, they struggle. KenPom projects this as a 70-67 win for Maryland, a 62% chance of victory.

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1363]

Ohio State is the best basketball team in the country according to KenPom

The Ohio State Buckeyes are now the top team in the country according to the widely-respected Pomeroy rankings.

According to the widely-respected Ken Pomery ratings, the Ohio State Buckeyes men’s basketball team is the top team in the country. The Buckeyes were No. 2 behind Louisville after thumping North Carolina last week. Now, though, after another decisive victory over a solid team (KenPom has the Nittany Lions at No. 26 currently), the Buckeyes are the top team in the country.

Pomeroy has the Buckeyes as the fifth-best offense in the country (opponent-adjusted efficiency) and the second-best defense. The Buckeyes are the only team in the Top 5 in both metrics, and trail only overall No. 10 Virginia in defensive efficiency. (It should not surprise anyone that Virginia is the best defense in the country, and by a decent margin.) It’s might be a mild surprise to Ohio State fans, but KenPom does think that the Buckeyes play one of the slowest paces in the country–as his ratings have Ohio State outside the Top 300 in opponent-adjusted Tempo.

The Buckeyes still trail Duke in ESPN’s BPI ratings, though that should change shortly as well. Ohio State was No. 6 in the human rankings coming into this week, but it will be shocking if the Buckeyes are anything less than No. 2 (potentially behind Louisville) when the new polls come out in a few days.

Ohio State’s next major test is against KenPom No. 7 Kentucky in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 21st.