Is Kemba Walker really the best player on the Boston Celtics roster? Even with third-year forward Jayson Tatum, the future face of the franchise, making the type of leap that could be a turning point in his blossoming career?
Despite Walker’s top-three ranking on ESPN’s Kia MVP ladder, Tatum has been able to dominate on both sides of the ball, putting his exceptional footwork, shooting touch and what seems to be both increased agility and awareness on display for Boston.
Walker is without a doubt the better facilitator — masterful in the pick-and-roll — and Tatum has had surprising struggles at the rim but with the latter’s defensive improvement, it appears the two are at least at the same level this season.
Kemba Walker
Walker is averaging 21.6 points, 5.0 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 0.9 steals in 32.3 minutes per game, obviously well-rounded numbers and those of a key player. The three-time All-Star is shooting just 40.2% from the field — his lowest mark since 2014-15 — and 38.6% from three-point range on 8.8 attempts per game.
With an average shot distance of 16.9 feet, a career-high, Kemba is definitely more perimeter-oriented but the reason has much to do with his issues getting shots up inside three feet, where he’s taking a career-low 18.0% of his field goal attempts. As the Celtics have played a number of long-limbed teams, including division rivals in the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors, this isn’t surprising.
However, he’s also struggled mightily from the midrange, knocking down just 25.0% — a career-low — of his shots from 10-16 feet, which account for 11.6% of his field goal attempts. Combine that with 29.1% shooting from 3-10 feet — the floater area — where 14.1% of his attempts come, then the crux of Walker’s issues is easily identified.
Yet, for all his struggles scoring, Walker has been able to use his quickness, ball-handling and awareness to routinely set up his teammates. His assist average (5.0) isn’t remarkable by any means but he’s playing within his role and within the offense, with a lack of excessive ball-dominance helping Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward establish a rhythm.
On the defensive end, Walker competes and has shown great recognition and quickness.
He’s fourth among guards, just behind Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Danny Green, with 7.4 contested shots per game and second amongst guards (9th in the league) with charges drawn at 0.44 per game. That said, Walker’s frame at 6’0” and 172 pounds still handicaps him against bigger players and screens.
Opposing point guards have routinely had a field day at Boston, starting with Ben Simmons and Kyle Lowry scoring 53 combined points against the Celtics in the first two games of the season and continuing into last week, when Brooklyn Nets guards Garrett Temple and Spencer Dinwiddie combined to score 54 points in Boston’s back-to-back games against them.
Jayson Tatum
Tatum is averaging 21.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocks in 34.6 minutes per game, diversifying his shot-selection while showcasing exceptional defensive effort and awareness.
The third-year forward has shot just 41.1% from the field and 36.6% from deep — career-lows — and that makes plenty of sense when considering he’s shooting a career-low 51.6% on shots within three feet of the rim (26.9% of his shot attempts) and a career-low 38.8% on shots from 10-16 feet away from the rim (18.8% of his shot attempts).
But with 7.3 shot contests per game (including 3.8 three-point contests per game, ranked 19th among forwards); 2.5 deflections 0.9 defensive loose balls recovered per game (ranked 19th among forwards); (ranked fifth among forwards who played more than one game) and opponents shooting just 37.7 percent against him, he’s more than making up for it defensively.
He’s jumped passing lanes often and created easy offense for himself on nights when he couldn’t find his shot. However, though he’s had a flair for the dramatic and taken tough shots throughout the season, he’s not been selfish and what’s a career-high 2.7 assists per game — despite some of his teammates’ inefficiency — highlights that quality of his game.
The case for Tatum
When Tatum is on the court, Boston has an offensive rating of 113.4 that drops to 103.4 when he’s off, similar to the 114.1 offensive rating the team has with Kemba on the court and the 104.2 offensive rating the Celtics have when he’s off the court.
On the other side of the ball, when Tatum is on the court, the Celtics had a defensive rating of 102.5 and 108.8 when he’s off. By contrast, the team has a defensive rating of 107.7 when Walker’s on the court and 98.4 when he’s off.
That would suggest that for all the similarities of their offensive impact, the defensive metrics — as well as what you could call the ‘eye test’ — point to Tatum being the slightly more impactful player.
What it all means
After the Celtics swung a sign-and-trade for Walker in June, it was universally understood that the Celtics acquired a player that would become their top option. He was a three-time All-Star, fresh off a career season and his first All-NBA selection.
Long considered one of the league’s top point guards, Kemba’s prowess in the pick-and-roll and propensity to hit clutch shots were well-known. However, replacing the team’s former star point guard — the embattled Kyrie Irving — would require Walker to do more than make up for the production they would lose with Irving changing loyalties.
He would need to be the positive and magnetic locker room force that Irving either would or could not be in 2018-19, a task that would be much easier said than done considering the disarray that Irving left the franchise in after his departure.
A chance to build chemistry with the majority of Boston’s core players over the summer with Team USA began what’s been the start of genuine friendships between teammates, creating an atmosphere beneficial to the growth of players and the team as a whole.
For the combination of his role in the process and his on-court production, Walker being considered the team’s MVP makes plenty of sense. Nonetheless, the team’s best player — both now and what may be for the future as well — is Tatum.
That would mean that the premonition of the fans and most importantly, of Celtics president Danny Ainge, is coming true.
*All stats gathered from Basketball Reference and NBA Advanced Stats
