Patriots contest offers Cowboys chance to prove they belong

We are about to see how the Dallas Cowboys measure up against the league’s best when they play the New England Patriots on Sunday.

Jerry Jones often deals in hyperbole, but this time, he’s right.

After beating the Detroit Lions in Week 11, the Dallas Cowboys sit atop of the NFC East standings at 6-4. Meanwhile the rival Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New England Patriots to provide Dallas a one-game cushion, for now. The next challenge is a trip to Foxborough, Massachusetts to take on the Super Bowl champs and consensus best team in the league. Jones called it a “measuring stick” game on his weekly radio appearance on 105.3 The Fan.

For most of this season, we’ve seen the 2019 version of the Cowboys win when they’re supposed to. Dallas is 6-1 against teams with a .500 or below record, yet when they’ve played a good team, the Cowboys are 0-3.

The Cowboys have had chances to come away with wins in each of the three losses, but they haven’t been able to walk out victorious.

Winning the division is great, but if the team has aspirations of being taken seriously, there is no better time to prove they belong than by competing with the Patriots.

This game won’t just gauge how good the Cowboys are as team, but it will pit the league’s top offense under a microscope against the NFL’s best defense. The Patriots lead the league in yards against (249.9), points given up per game (10.8), have created the most turnovers (28) and are second in pass defense (152.6).

Dallas’ offense is tops in the league (and the only team averaging over 400 ypg) at 444.6 yards a game, is first in passing yards per game (312.7) and is fourth in points a game at 28.6. If the offense is as good as good as they appear to be, they’ll have to prove it on the road against the league’s top defensive unit.

This is an opportunity for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to show his offense is capable of moving the ball and scoring against a good defense. In the Cowboys’ four losses, they have failed to score over 24 points.

It’s also a game for QB Dak Prescott to show that he’s a legit candidate for league MVP.

Prescott torched the Lions to the tune of 444 yards and has thrown for six scores and 841 yards in his last two outings. Those totals are over half of what the Patriots have allowed through the air all season. Yet, there are some still questioning just how good Prescott is because he hasn’t thrived against good teams.

If the Cowboys’ signal caller plays well, there can be no denying Prescott is one of the game’s best.

This is one of the toughest games remaining on the teams’ schedule. The Patriots provide ample challenges for the Cowboys and their top-flight offense.

There might be more important contests left, but this match-up can bring legitimacy to a team trying to be taken seriously. It’s a huge opportunity for the Cowboys to show they can do more than just beat bad teams.

Measuring stick, indeed.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi

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Moore’s play-calling resembles Linehan, are Cowboys avoiding Dak runs?

The Cowboys were balanced in the first half in formations and run/pass distribution, but the offense became one dimensional in second half.

In Week 10, the Dallas Cowboys took another step backward; they fell to 5-4 by losing a close contest to the Minnesota Vikings.

Unlike the previous two games, Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was unable, or unwilling, to call a balanced game.

You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.

Raw Data from Week 10

Where these numbers differ from the official stat line, it is because offensive plays that were negated for penalties were intentionally included.

Dallas ran 71 offensive plays against the Giants. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott took 20 snaps from under center and 51 in the shotgun, a ratio that is consistent with the games they have lost. The only game that Dallas won in which Prescott was Prescott operated from the shotgun so frequently was against the Giants in Week 9 (26 from under center and 43 in shotgun).

In the first four victories, Dallas was balanced in terms of where Prescott lined up: 32-34 against the Giants, 32-36 in Washington, 32-39 versus the Dolphins, and 34-36 against the Eagles.

But the three games they lost saw a major shift to the shotgun: 18-39 in New Orleans, 21-52 against the Packers, and 26-56 versus the Jets.

The Saints game was a bit of an anomaly because they were never behind more than six points but still went heavy on the shotgun (18 snaps under center and 39 from shotgun) and they passed far more often then they attempted to run.

In Week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings, Moore called 20 runs, 35 passing plays, 15 play-action passes, and one rushing attempt off play-action.

First-half snaps under center

Dallas ran 36 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 17 snaps and in the shotgun for 19.

Of those 17 snaps from under center:

  • nine were rushes
  • one was a straight drop-back pass
  • six were play-action passes
  • one was run off play-action

First-half shotgun snaps

Of the 19 shotgun snaps:

  • three were rushes
  • 15 were passes
  • one was a play-action pass

Dallas was balanced in the first half in terms of formation (17 snaps from under center and 19 in shotgun) and the run/pass distribution (12 runs, 16 passes, and seven play-action passes and one play-action run).

A few more things stand out.

First, Moore is back to using play-action on a regular basis. Almost 20% of the first-half plays were play-action passes and 44% of the passes came off play-action. If you include the play-action run, then 22% of all first-half plays utilized play-action.

Second, unlike some of the previous games, Dallas only attempted one play-action run: it was a handoff to wide receiver Tavon Austin. The Cowboys seem to have gotten away from calling running plays for Prescott in recent weeks. One has to wonder if all the big hits Prescott’s takes in the pocket have caused Moore and company to be more reluctant to design intentional running plays for their quarterback.

Third, despite all the condemnation from the fans that Moore stubbornly sent running back Ezekiel Elliot in to a “brick wall” repeatedly, the Cowboys were not unsuccessful running the ball in the first half. Elliot had 37 yards on 12 carries, which is more than 3 yards a rush. That is far from spectacular, but it isn’t horrendous either.

Fourth, when criticizing Moore’s play calling, many people seemed to forget how the first two offensive drives ended. Both drives saw consecutive incomplete passes on second and six, and then again on third and six. That is two drives than ended when they couldn’t gain six yards on two pass attempts.

Snaps from the under center in the second half

Dallas ran 35 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for three snaps and in the shotgun for 32.

Of the three snaps that Prescott took under center:

  • two runs
  • one play-action pass

Second-half shotgun snaps

Of the 32 plays from the shotgun:

  • six were runs
  • 19 were pass attempts
  • seven were play-action passes

The Cowboys’ offense lacked any semblance of balance in the second half in terms of formation (3 snaps from under center and 32 from the shotgun) or run/pass distribution (eight runs, 19 passes, and eight play-action passes). As mentioned above, despite having success with it in previous games, Moore called no rushing attempts off play-action.

This column rarely professes to have answers, but it does posit questions. In the second half, the Cowboys ran the ball eight times and threw it 27 times.

Could they have passed more and not have become completely one dimensional?

Are the Cowboys good enough to throw the ball effectively if they become one dimensional and the defense knows they are going to throw?

Totals for game

Dallas ran 71 plays on offense.

Moore called 21 rushing plays:

  • 11 from under center
  • nine from from the shotgun
  • one of play-action from under center

Moore called 50 passes:

  • one from under center
  • seven off play-action from under center
  • 34 from the shotgun
  • eight passes off play-action from the shotgun

Conclusions

Calling a balanced game for the Cowboys is a bit different than some other NFL teams. It is not as simple as looking at the run/pass ratio. That is definitely part of it, and I would argue that Dallas should be much closer to 60% passing than 70%. But that is only part of the equation because of the infrequency with which Dak Prescott takes a snap from under center and attempts a pass.

This season, Prescott has sometimes thrown three, and on fewer occasions four, passes a game after taking the snap from under center, but he averages less than 2.5 drop-back passes a game. Moreover, there is a tendency for some of these throws to be quick screen-type plays to the wide receiver. In previous years, it was unusual for Dak to attempt more than two passes a game after starting under center. Against the Vikings, Prescott threw just one pass after taking the snap from under center.

Given these “limitations”, being balanced for the Cowboys means not running too frequently when Prescott is under center and not throwing every time he is in the shotgun.

Prescott has officially attempted 319 passes in 2019. However, if you include, as this analysis does, plays called back for penalties, scrambles of designed passes, and sacks, then Moore has called 352 passing plays. Of those 352 passing plays, Prescott has dropped back from center and attempted to throw the ball a mere 22 times. That means that 6.25% of Moore’s calls for a pass attempt have been based on Prescott taking the snap under center.

In other words, 93.7% of Moore’s pass calls have been from the shotgun or off play-action. From a different angle: of the 352 passing plays that Moore has called in 2019, 297 of them have come out of the shotgun (84.3%).

Last week, this column lauded Moore and his play calling for finally getting away from the predictable trends that were a mainstay under former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. He was infamous for calling runs on more than 80% of the plays that Prescott took the snap from under center and calling passes on more than 80% of the plays that Prescott started in the shotgun.

You can click here to get the stats on how Moore’s numbers compare to Linehan for each of the first eight games. (It is near the end of the post.)

In Week 9 against the Giants, Dallas ran the ball on 15 of 26 snaps when Prescott was under center (57.6%); they attempted a pass on 67% of the plays that Prescott was in the shotgun (29 of 43). That is fantastic balance because it makes it impossible for the defense to know whether they are likely to pass or run based solely on the formation.

This week, Dallas ran the ball on 12 of the 20 plays that started with Prescott under center (60%). That is good balance. But, they attempted a pass on 42 of the 51 shotgun snaps (82.3%). That percentage is more like Scott Linehan, and it comes dangerously close to being predictable.

Miscellaneous Observations

  • The Vikings drive in the 3rd quarter that featured 10 straight runs (including the two-point conversion) was a genuine game changer.
  • It seemed like the Vikings ran similar type screens over and over again for big gains. Genuine question: is the failure to adjust to this play after seeing it at least 4 times also on Jason Garrett, or is the players or the defensive coaches?
  • Since 2018, Dallas is 9-1 against teams in the NFC East and just 6-9 against the rest of the NFL. Five of those victories came against teams with losing records (Lions were 6-10, Jaguars were 5-11, Falcons were 7-9, Buccaneers were 5-11, and the Dolphins are 2-7). Other than the Eagles, their only victories against teams with winning records were the Saints last year and the Seahawks in the playoffs.
  • The Vikings were 8 of 14 on third-down conversions (57%). Opposing offenses are converting third downs just 30.91% of the time against the Cowboys defense (34-110). Dallas owns the third best third-down defense in the league (after New England and San Francisco).
  • Dallas was an impressive 9-15 on their own third-down attempts (60%). They are now 55-107 on the season (51%). That makes them the best in the NFL at converting third downs.
  • The Cowboys were 0-2 on fourth-down attempts. On the season, Dallas ranks 30th in the league on fourth down; they convert just 20% of those attempts.

The games don’t get much easier for the Cowboys in the coming weeks: they face the Detroit Lions this week before squaring off against two tough AFC opponents in the Patriots and Bills.

You can follow on Twitter @CJosephWright.

News: Cowboys record betrays performance, breaking down the break down

News and notes for all things Dallas Cowboys on Nov 13, 2019.

The Dallas Cowboys are treading water more than halfway through the 2019 season. In today’s news and notes there’s a snapshot of the playoff picture, which as of now, has Dallas tenuously holding in a crowded and talented NFC field.

It shouldn’t have to be this hard. Especially in the modern NFL where offense is king. By any metric this version of the Cowboys offensive attack is as dangerous as any in the league. Unfortunately, while the offense is keeping them afloat there’s anchors doing their best to drag them under.

The Cowboys playoff hopes aren’t the only thing on the verge of being cancelled. That and more below.

Week 10 EPA Power Rankings: Cowboys knocked from top-offense perch :: Cowboys Wire

Another team with a young quarterback playing out of his mind has snatched the top spot in terms of offensive EPA. Still, the Cowboys are still held in high regard in this aspect, indicating that they’re better than the 5-4 record they’ve cobbled together so far. But at some point, as Bill Parcells liked to say, “You are what your record says you are.” All the analytics and underlying stats won’t be able to get a team into the playoffs.

–TT


Decoding Kellen Moore: How Cowboys stalled against Vikings despite Prescott’s finest performance :: The Athletic

The weekly must read breakdown from Bob Sturm. This week is a postmortem on the final three plays of the Cowboys’ penultimate drive. There’s no denying those plays are tough to look at but there’s palette cleansers in there too, with a review of what was likely the best performance of Dak Prescott’s career.

–TT


Michael Bennett on adjusting to Cowboys: After Patriots, learning any defense is easy :: USA Today

Bennett gives his thoughts on his time acclimating to the new way of life for him in Dallas as well as what the future holds past this season, which is murky. He also holds one of his defensive line mates in high regards, ranking him near the top with any player he’s ever taken the field with. That and more, including some background on the headline above.

–TT


Keith O’Quinn not endearing himself after ST blunder on frustrating night :: Cowboys Wire

The Dallas special teams unit is not good. The biggest culprit is the man who runs that aspect of the team, Keith O’Quinn. This had been largely swept under the rug for the last year and a half while the team had bigger fish to fry, but the fair catch gaffe from Sunday night is the spotlight to take a closer look into what O’Quinn’s unit is costing the Cowboys.

–TT


NFC Playoff Picture Week 11: Cowboys in danger of being cropped out :: Cowboys Wire

It’s times like these when a team has to be thankful for the division in which they play. No team is as grateful as the Dallas Cowboys who are getting lapped by the contenders in the NFC yet hold on to the No. 4 seed for the playoffs. If the Cowboys continue to find ways to lose games, however, that too will slip away.

–TT


Ellie Goulding threatens to cancel her Cowboys Thanksgiving halftime show over Salvation Army concerns :: Dallas Morning News

In a story that’s not at all about what usually happens on a football field, the traditional halftime show may be facing some changes in Dallas. Ellie Goulding, the singer tapped to perform, has found herself in hot water with fans after an Instagram post touting the Salvation Army. Whether or not the show will go on as planned is unknown.

–TT


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Cowboys won’t question play calling; Garrett says ‘we had options’

While the team wouldn’t cast doubt on the playcalls in the Week 10 loss, coach Jason Garrett revealed more about their ill-fated late runs.

From the moment Kellen Moore was named the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, the questions started. Who would actually be calling the plays? What plays would they use? Would it be all flea-flickers and Statues of Liberty as Moore reached back into his Boise State bag of tricks? Or would Moore just trot out the same predictably ineffective Scott Linehan/Jason Garrett plays that were already in place?

In the wake of a disheartening loss to the Minnesota Vikings, playcalling is once again the focus. The Cowboys were positioned to pull off a dramatic comeback after being behind for most of the game, with the ball deep in enemy territory and down by four points with under two minutes to play. That’s when the passing game that had found success all night was inexplicably shelved for consecutive runs by Ezekiel Elliott that lost three yards and wasted almost 50 seconds of precious time. The sequence put the Cowboys in a fourth-down situation where a pass was expected by everyone, including Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks, who tipped the throw away and ended the Dallas drive 14 yards away from the end zone.

So who’s to blame? In a phone interview on Monday morning, coach Jason Garrett made it clear who’s selecting the plays.

“Kellen’s calling the game,” Garrett told 105.3 The Fan, “and in that situation, it’s 2nd-and-2. And he felt like he had a good opportunity against a favorable box to run the ball in those situations. On each of those plays, we had options beyond just the run. And unfortunately, we weren’t able to convert. We got into that 4th-down situation; we didn’t convert that.”

Garrett’s answer was interesting in several ways. First, it confirmed that Moore is the one actually dialing up the plays off the big laminated sheet, or at least the majority of them. Garrett still retains oversight, not just philosophically, but even on the sideline as the game is being played.

“We just try to communicate as an offensive staff throughout the ballgame,” Garrett explained, “and Kellen’s done a great job for us all year long. And I certainly have input throughout the ballgame. Situationally, I have input about how to handle certain situations. That’s how we’ve operated all year long, and that’s how we operated last night, and unfortunately we didn’t get it done.”

But the second part of Garrett’s answer is also telling. Quarterback Dak Prescott “had options beyond just the run,” according to the coach.

He had said as much in his postgame press conference late Sunday night.

“There are a number of different options on that play based on what they play,” Garrett told reporters. “If they heat you up, you have some answers. If they play a certain kind of zone, you have some answers. If they play man-to-man, you have some answers. So we wanted to give Dak some different options, depending on what they were going to play on a critical down situation.”

After the game, Elliott said of the play, “It was just an RPO [run-pass option]. It was a give read. There really wasn’t anywhere to go.”

That was the story all game, as Elliott finished with a mere 47 rushing yards on 20 attempts. With Prescott finding far more success through the air- 397 yards and three touchdowns- the obvious question swirling around Cowboys Nation is: why not just let Prescott continue to lay waste with his military-grade flamethrower instead of continually coming back to a pea-shooter that had been firing blanks all night?

It’s a matter of strategy. Some coaches tend to seek out an opponent’s weakness and then pull out whatever tool from their bag will work best to exploit that weakness. Others seem to want to establish an identity and then hammer it home, whatever it is… and whether it’s working or not. It feels like Garrett is firmly entrenched in the latter category. He wants the Cowboys to be a tough, physical football team who will run it right down anybody’s throat. So he does. Even if the passing game is doing all the damage in a certain matchup. It’s “we’re-going-to-do-this-because-it’s-who-we-are” versus “we’re-going-to-do-that-because-it’s-working.”

Prescott put it up 46 times Sunday night, Garrett explained on The Fan, to just 22 rushing attempts. He clearly wanted more balance, because in his world, balance is just objectively good. Maybe, but most who watched this particular game felt like one or two more throws (and one or two fewer runs) would have actually won it for Dallas.

Prescott was careful on Sunday night when asked if he wished Moore and Garrett had kept the ball in his hands with a pass on every play of the ill-fated second-to-last drive. “It’s safe to say I’ll throw the ball every play of the game,” Prescott smiled. “That’s the obvious part, right? So, for sure.”

But as Garrett explained during his radio interview, Prescott did have at least the option to throw on the run plays in question. So for fans looking to place blame after a difficult defeat, it seems there needs to be some to go around: some for Moore for calling the plays, some for Garrett for not stepping in and suggesting something else based on the situation, and some for Prescott for the option he finally went with as the plays unfolded.

“That’s the way we evaluate everything,” Garrett said Monday. “We’ll go in today- win, lose, or draw- and we say, ‘Okay, what was good about the game? Okay, let’s continue to build on that. What were areas that we as coaches need to do a better job? Maybe we didn’t communicate it well enough, maybe we didn’t practice it well enough, maybe it just wasn’t executed. I’m not talking about those specific plays, but that’s generally how you approach it.”

How to divvy up the blame for the Vikings loss may be up for debate, but one thing that was unanimous was the players’ reactions to any queries casting aspersions on the team’s playcalling or the coaches responsible.

“I’m not going to question the playcalling,” Prescott said. “There were opportunities; we’ve just got to do better and execute those plays, simple as that. And every guy in that locker room would say that.”

Wide receiver Randall Cobb did in his postgame comments. “I don’t call the plays. That’s not my job. My job is to make the plays and execute the plays that are called. The play that’s called is the play that we go out there and run, and we’ve got to make it happen on the field.”

“We would never question Kellen’s calls,” tight end Jason Witten said at his locker Sunday night. “That’s been a good run for us in third-and-short, kind of spreading them out this season, and kind of find[ing] the soft spot. Zeke does such a good job, Dak, they’re kind of used to running that type of play… That’s been a good play for us. I’m not surprised that he went back to that.”

Deep down, Cowboys fans weren’t surprised either. It’s just that they wanted to be. Because for all the early questions about the new-look Dallas offense and the glimpses of brilliance that peek through now and again, when the team had a do-or-die shot at punching it in, the answers they got were the same ones they’d been hearing for years.

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