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The Pittsburgh Pirates (70-76) welcome the Kansas City Royals (80-67) to PNC Park Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Pirates won all 3 meetings in 2023
The Royals, who are 2nd in the AL Central, lost to the New York Yankees 4-3 Wednesday as a +129 underdog. Kansas City lost 2 of 3 to the Yankees, but swept the Minnesota Twins in a 3-game series prior to that. It is 5-9 over its last 14. Kansas City is 35-37 on the road and 82-65 against the spread (ATS).
The Pirates are riding a 4-game winning streak, having swept the Miami Marlins in their last series. They won the finale in that home series 3-1 Wednesday, closing as a -143 favorite. Pittsburgh is 7-3 over its last 10 games and 37-38 at home on the season. It is 79-67 ATS.
Royals at Pirates projected starters
Undecided vs. RHP Luis Ortiz
With odds up and no starting pitcher for Kansas City, when and who the Royals place on the mound to start the game isn’t expected to heavily impact the odds of the game.
Ortiz (6-5, 3.26 ERA) makes his 13th start and 35th appearance. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 118 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-3 home loss to the Washington Nationals Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 2-2, 3.65 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 in 17 appearances (6 starts)
- Career vs. Royals: 1-0, 1.80 ERA (5 IP, 1 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 1 start
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Pirates -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals -1.5 (+170) | Pirates +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (-130).
The Pirates are hot, and Ortiz is among their best options to start the game. He’s been solid for the Pirates, and they are 2-1 in his last 3 starts, having allowed just 8 runs in those 3 games combined.
The Royals have been streaky. From Aug. 28-Sept. 3, they had a 7-game losing streak then followed that up with 4 straight wins. Having lost 2 of their last 3, they may continue to struggle Friday. Kansas City is 19-28 as a road underdog.
Take PIRATES (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Pirates are far too expensive as a run-line underdog and aren’t worth a play there, and the Royals aren’t worth the risk as a run-line favorite. Avoid this wager.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
The Royals have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games and have allowed 0 runs in 3 of their last 6. Kansas City has scored 5 or fewer runs in every game since Aug. 27 (13 games). It is 66-77-4 O/U on the season.
The Pirates have gone Under in 2 of their last 3. Pittsburgh has gone Under in Ortiz’s last 5 starts as well. Back UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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