The Kansas City Royals (18-43) and the Miami Marlins (34-28) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Wednesday at loanDepot park in Miami. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-0
Miami followed up a 9-6 win in Monday’s series opener with a 6-1 rout of Kansas City on Tuesday night. The Marlins have rattled off 12 victories in the past 13 interleague games while cashing in 7 in a row at home against the American League. The Fish have also posted wins in 6 of the past 7 contests against AL Central foes.
The Royals have sunk to 25 games under .500, and 13 games behind the 1st-place Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Kansas City has dropped 5 of the past 6 games, and it has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 9 contests, cashing the Under at a 7-2 clip during the span dating back to May 27.
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Royals at Marlins projected starters
RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Edward Cabrera
Lyles (0-9, 6.89 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 66 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 7-2 home loss vs. the Colorado Rockies Friday
- 2023 Road splits: 0-4, 9.89 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 26 ER – 6 HR) with 13 BB, 20 K and a .287 opponent batting average (OBA) in 5 starts
Cabrera (4-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 58 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K in a 4-0 home win vs. the Oakland Athletics Friday
- 2023 Home splits: 4-0, 2.77 ERA (26 IP, 8 ER – 3 HR) with a .215 OBA in 5 starts
Royals at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Marlins -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-140) | Marlins -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 7, Royals 2
Moneyline
The MARLINS (-175) are just below my personal moneyline limit of -180 for a singular wager, and I am actually surprised this number isn’t much, much higher.
Miami has had its way against interleague competition lately, and the pitching splits in this matchup are insane. Lyles is a dismal 0-4 with a 9.89 ERA in 5 road starts, while Cabrera is 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA in 5 home outings. That suggests this is going to be a rout in favor of the home side.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS -1.5 (+115) are worth a look as they look to broom Kansas City out of town.
The Fish have won 5 in a row at home and Miami has won each of those contests — all as a favorite — by 2 or more runs. It also has won 8 in a row against the American League, winning by 2 or more runs in each of those contests.
The Royals have a winless pitcher on the hill with 9 setbacks on the season. Kansas City just cannot be trusted, while Miami is worth backing as it works its way through an ultra-easy portion of the schedule.
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Over/Under
The OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean, although I’d go rather lightly.
While I expect the Marlins to get to Lyles early and often, the same can’t be said for the Royals’ bats against Cabrera. He has been red-hot at home, and runs will be at a premium for the visitors. Miami is certainly capable of hitting the Over without any assistance from Kansas City. Just be careful.
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