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The Kansas City Royals (53-102) and the Houston Astros (85-70) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 4-1
The Royals have won 5 games in a row, the team’s 2nd-longest streak of the season. Kansas City won 7 consecutive games from July 28-Aug. 4. It is in the midst of its best 10-game stretch of the season, however, going 9-1 in the past 10 games since Sept. 12, including a crippling 4 wins in 5 games against the Astros.
Houston is still in the final AL Wild Card, but it is now a game back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2nd spot, and just a half-game ahead of the 3rd-place Seattle Mariners in the AL West. The Astros have picked a bad time to play their worst baseball of the season, and Houston can blame a 1-4 record against hapless Kansas City should it miss the postseason.
Royals at Astros projected starters
RHP Steven Cruz vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Cruz (0-0, 4.15 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 8th overall appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 8.3 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 8 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 1 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-6 home win vs. the Cleveland Guardians last Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 0 ER), .167 OBA in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Brown (11-12, 4.87 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th overall appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 151 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-5 home loss vs. the Baltimore Orioles last Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 4-8, 6.07 ERA (69 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 8 HR, .271 OBA in 14 starts
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Royals at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:56 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Astros -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (+115) | Astros -1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 7, Royals 5
Moneyline
The Astros (-250) are a risky play, and it is quite expensive to play them, too.
Houston has dropped 4 of the past 5 games overall, while going just 3-8 in the past 11 games to sink like a stone in the AL playoff standings. While I believe the Astros get it done in this series finale, salvaging at least 1 game in the 3-game set, it is still too much risk for not enough reward.
AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
The ASTROS -1.5 (-140) are a better play on the run line. Again, while Houston has been ice-cold lately, and it is just 1-6 in the past 7 games as a favorite, it is still in the mix for a wild-card spot, and really, still very much alive for the American League West title.
In this final stretch of the regular season, you have to bet that the alarm clock will go off for the defending champs, especially against a lowly Royals +1.5 (+115) team with nothing but pride to play for.
Over/Under
The OVER 9.5 (-115) is the best play on the board. Cruz will serve as the opener, with the Royals bullpen taking over. While Kansas City has been hot lately, the bullpen has been a major bugaboo all season, posting a 5.17 ERA, 3rd-worst in the majors.
On the flip side, the Astros figure to give up plenty of runs, too. Brown has terrible home splits, posting a 4-8 record and 6.07 ERA this season at MMP. Look for plenty of runs in this finale.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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