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ALDS Game 4: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet Thursday in Game 4 of their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch at Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: New York leads 2-1; won regular season series 5-2

The Yankees took Games 1 and 3, winning both in 1-run fashion. Since Sept. 11, New York has gone a combined 13-7 with a 3.23 ERA.

Kansas City pitching has issued 17 free passes in the club’s 2 losses in the series. And Wednesday’s loss, a 3-2 affair that saw the Royals collect just 6 hits and 2 walks, marked K.C.’s 7th in a row at Kauffman Stadium.

Yankees at Royals projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 starts in the regular season. He authored a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 win vs. Kansas City Royals Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
  • Career vs. Royals (regular season): 4-1, 2.77 ERA (52 IP, 16 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Owns a 3.05 ERA in 109 1/3 career playoff innings

Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) made 29 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-5 loss at New York Yankees Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
  • Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 2-1, 2.97 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 appearances (9 starts)
  • Has registered a 5.36 ERA over 42 career playoff innings

Yankees at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Royals +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Royals 4

Moneyline

The Yankees were a -210 favorite with this same pitching matchup in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Neither hurler fared well, and New York earned a 6-5 victory in the series lid-lifter.

New York had a plus-18 run differential vs. Kansas City in the regular season. Per ESPN, the Cole has held Kansas City to an aggregate .603 OPS with a hefty strikeout rate.

Wacha logged some generous rates around the margins in posting his regular-season ERA, and his expected-ERA numbers were more-than-a-half-run higher. The K.C. righty has pitched quite well at Kauffman Stadium (2.89 ERA), and he does have a history of faring well in home starts. But his Game 1 performance and overall postseason line leave enough doubt in this spot.

The Royals offense was productive at home this season. But lately, Kansas City has struggled mightily on home turf. The ballclub is winless (0-7) at Kauffman since Sept. 16. Over those 7 games, the Royals offense has cranked out a whiff-laden .541 OPS.

BACK YANKEES (-155).

Run line/Against the spread

No interest here due to CF Aaron Judge struggles (1-for-14 in this series, .467 OPS across last 12 postseason games) and the likely Thursday unavailability of New York closer Luke Weaver, who got the final 5 outs in Wednesday’s win.

PASS.

Over/Under

Game 4 gets a slight temperature warm-up. Both starters are good, but slight fades compared to their surface numbers. Bullpens are a few days used and seen.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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ALDS Game 3: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet in Game 3 of their best-of-5 ALDS Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Tied 1-1; Yankees won regular-season series 5-2

New York posted a 6-5 win in Game 1 as a heavy favorite (-200), although Kansas City covered the run line as an underdog as the Over (8) connected. In Game 2, the Royals surprised the Yankees as moderate underdogs (+140) as the Under (7.5) held on.

In Game 2, LHP Cole Ragans allowed a run in 4 IP, while the Royals  bullpen allowed a single run in 5 IP. Veteran C Salvador Perez smacked a solo HR for the team’s only extra-base hit.

The Royals are 3-1 in the postseason, all on the road, and each victory has been as an underdog. The Under is 3-1 in those 4 games, too. This will be Kansas City’s 1st home game since Sept. 22, and 1st postseason home game since Nov. 1, 2015, when the Royals topped the New York Mets in 5 games to win the World Series.

Yankees at Royals projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Seth Lugo

Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 29
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-3, 1.39 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 17 BB, 46 K in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Royals: 2-0, 3.29 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 4 appearances (2 starts)
  • Didn’t face the Royals in 2024
  • Career postseason: 0-2, 11.57 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 1 K, 3.00 WHIP) in 3 relief appearances

Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) made 33 regular-season starts. He had a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 206 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H (1 solo HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 road victory in Game 2 of Wild Card round vs. Baltimore Orioles
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 7-6, 3.36 ERA (107 IP, 40 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 25 BB, 83 K in 17 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees: 5-2, 2.55 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 in 14 appearances (4 starts)
  • 2024 vs. Yankees: 1-1, 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), .224 opponents’ batting average, 1 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 1.42 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 9 K, 1.42 WHIP) in 4 appearances (1 start)

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Yankees at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:47 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Royals +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Yankees at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 4, Yankees 3

Moneyline

The ROYALS (-105) are a sharp play as short ‘dogs at home in Game 3 behind Lugo, who was sharp during the regular season with 16 victories.

The Yankees (-115) have the payroll, and they have the big names, but the starting pitching is a little shaky. Trust Lugo way more than Schmidt, especially in front of a raucous crowd hungry for playoff baseball.

Run line/Against the spread

The Royals +1.5 (-175) are only worth playing lightly if you’re super conservative, and you just can’t bring yourself to play against the Yankees -1.5 (+145) straight up.

If you like Kansas City, though, just play it straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Over-Under has split in the 2 games in this playoff series, but the Under is 3-1 in the past 4 meetings since Sept. 10.

The Yankees had to hop a plane for the 1st time since Sept. 22. The Under is 6-3 in the past 9 games on the road for New York.

For the Royals, the Under is 3-1 in the postseason, while going 14-4 in the past 18 games since Sept. 10, a streak which started in New York.

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ALDS Game 2: Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees clash Monday as they continue their best-of-5 ALDS. Game 2 at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: New York leads 1-0; New York won 5-2 in the regular season series

The Yankees took Saturday’s opener 6-5 as -201 home favorites with the Over (8) hitting in the top of the 6th inning.

There were 4 lead changes in the first 5½ innings. Kansas City led 1-0 after 2½ innings, 3-2 after 4½ innings and 5-4 after 5½ innings. New York tied it in the bottom of the 6th on C Austin Wells’ 2-out, RBI single and took the lead for good on LF Alex Verdugo’s 2-out RBI single in the bottom of the 7th — Verdugo (2-for-3, 2 runs, 1 RBI), the Yankees’ No. 9 hitter, scored the tying run in the 6th.

Including regular-season games, Kansas City is 4-16 across its last 20 games at Yankee Stadium dating back to July 2018.

The Yankees are 15-8 since Sept. 6. They outscored the Royals 48-29 — averaging 6.0 runs per game — in the 8 head-to-head battles this season, including Saturday’s opener.

Royals at Yankees projected starters

LHP Cole Ragans vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and an AL-best 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 1-0 win at Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of AL Wild Card Series Tuesday in 1st career postseason appearance
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 2.57 ERA (7 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
  • 2024 vs. Yankees, 1 start, no-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 4-3 loss in 11 innings at Yankee Stadium Sept. 11
  • Clocked a 1.08 ERA (25 IP, 3 ER) across 4 starts in September

Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) started 32 games in the regular season. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 27
  • Career vs. Royals: 4-6, 4.66 ERA (67 2/3 IP, 35 ER),1.49 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 13 starts
  • 2024 vs. Royals: 1-0, 2.08 ERA (13 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
  • Posted a 2.92 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 16 ER) over his last 9 starts
  • Career postseason: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (2 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 4 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 2 games (1 start), both for Chicago White Sox in 2020 and ’21

Royals at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:29 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-185) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Royals at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Royals 4

Moneyline

New York took 2 of 3 from Kansas City in a Yankee Stadium series last month (Sept. 9-11). The Yanks are 4-1 across their last 5 games after an off day.

The Yankees’ regular-season line against lefty pitching does not pop off the page. But their .721 OPS in such situations includes a 2nd-half surge in that department.

As mentioned above, Ragans is making just his 2nd postseason appearance. He has pitched just 2 2/3 career postseason innings, and they have not gone well (4 runs allowed on 4 hits and 4 walks). But the New York port-sider pitched well down the stretch and he has an excellent line against current K.C. bats (.641 OPS allowed, according to ESPN).

The long rest for Rodon is certainly a consideration. Over his career, the left-hander has a allowed a .698 OPS; he’s held foes to a .663 mark when pitching on 6-plus days of rest.

The Yankees received good non-Soto-and-Judge production Saturday. That’s a good sign for their offense, which is not at its best when too reliant on the meat of the batting order.

The Game 1 win gives New York a cushion and perhaps some loose confidence. The same words might well apply to a Yankee bullpen that had its struggles in the regular season but could have benefited greatly from the 5-day reset it had while awaiting Wild Card Series results.

New York had a plus-18 run differential against Kansas City in the regular season.

BACK YANKEES (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

No interest. PASS.

Over/Under

The Over 8 cashed Saturday, and the Over is 7-1-1 across New York’s last 9 games.

A hedge against both starters makes sense in this one. Even though Rodon is perhaps slightly undervalued in this matchup, he tends to allow loud contact and has lately even in a string of good work over recent weeks.

The weather report calls for a breeze blowing out to right, and the OVER 7.5 (-110) has value for this contest.

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ALDS Game 1: Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees meet Saturday as they swing into their best-of-5 ALDS. Game 1 at Yankee Stadium is slated for a 6:38 p.m. ET (TBS/Max) 1st pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: New York won 5-2

Kansas City made the postseason field as a Wild Card, and the Royals advanced to the ALDS by sweeping 2 low-scoring games from the Baltimore Orioles in Wild Card Series play. Despite scoring just 2.38 runs per game along the way, Kansas City has gone 6-2 over its last 8 games.

The Yankees have been idle since closing out the regular season Sunday. New York had a solid enough final stretch in September — the Yanks went 14-8 after Sept. 6. In the regular season, they outscored Kansas City 42-24 over 7 meetings.

Royals at Yankees projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) made 29 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 7-4 win at Washington Nationals Sept. 26
  • Career vs. Yankees: 2-1, 2.97 ERA (57.2 IP, 19 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 appearances (9 starts)
  • Last threw in postseason in 2021 (2 2/3 IP); owns 5.21 ERA across 38 career postseason innings

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 starts in the regular season. He authored a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 across 95 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 10-1 home victory vs. Baltimore Orioles Sept. 26
  • Career vs. Royals: 4-1, 2.77 ERA (52 IP, 16 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Owns 2.93 ERA in 104 1/3 career playoff innings

Royals at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Royals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Yankees -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Royals at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Royals 2

Moneyline

New York (-210) took 2 of 3 from K.C. in a Yankee Stadium series last month (Sept. 9-11), and the Yankees are 6-3 across the last 9 series meetings.

The Yanks are a lean here, but there’s a better play on the run line: PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

New York’s regular-season run differential vs. Kansas City plays into a lean here. So does Cole’s line against current hitters. Per ESPN, the Yankee hurler has held Kansas City to an aggregate .559 OPS with a hefty strikeout rate.

Wacha logged some generous rates around the margins in posting his regular-season ERA, and his expected ERA numbers are not as tidy as Cole’s.

BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under

The Under is 3-1 across the last 4 meetings.

Both starters have fared well in long-rest situations in their careers. With rested bullpen arms and perhaps rusty bats getting back in the groove after some off days, the pitching should be tabbed ahead of the hitting in this spot.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals look to advance and eliminate the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of their best-of-3 Wild Card Series Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Royals lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Orioles won 4-2

Kansas City took Tuesday’s opener 1-0 as +125 road underdogs with the Under (7) easily cashing. Royals SP Cole Ragans was brilliant, striking out 8 over 6 shutout innings. MLB batting champ SS Bobby Witt Jr. brought home the game’s lone run in the 6th inning with a 2-out, RBI single. RP Lucas Erceg closed the door on the Orioles, striking out 2 of the game’s final 3 batters after allowing a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 9th.

The Orioles are on the brink of getting eliminated for the 2nd consecutive year in their 1st-round matchup. The bats fell silent Tuesday, mustering only 5 hits and stranding 3 runners in scoring position — Baltimore finished 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. SP Corbin Burnes was the hard luck loser, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and a walk over 8 innings with 3 strikeouts.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024 with a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 206 2/3 innings. With a playoff spot clinched, the 9-year veteran only worked 2 innings as a tuneup for Wednesday’s start.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 9-3, 2.62 ERA (99 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 16 starts
  • Career vs. Orioles: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K in 3 games, including 1 start
  • 2024 vs. Orioles (1 start): Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K in 5-0 home defeat April 21
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 1 save, 0.00 ERA (2 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 3 relief outings for Mets in 2022

Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA) made 28 starts between the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays this season. He posted a 1.15 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 165 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 1 K in 9-7 victory at New York Yankees Sept. 25
  • 2024 vs. Royals (1 start): Win, 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 road victory as member of Rays July 4
  • Career vs. Royals: 3-1, 5.09 ERA (23 IP, 13 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 17 K in 4 starts
  • Career postseason stats: 0-1, 5.17 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 22 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 15 K in 11 games (1 start) for Phillies in 2022 and Rays in 2023

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Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Orioles -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-165) | Orioles -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 3, Orioles 2

Moneyline

BET ROYALS (+130).

The young Orioles are still searching for that elusive postseason breakthrough. After winning 101 games last year, they were swept in a best-of-5 ALDS by the Texas Rangers, and the playoff pressure seems to be getting to them again. They needed to make a statement in Game 1 vs. the Royals, especially at home with their ace Burnes on the mound, but they couldn’t get it done. It’s starting to feel like the moment is still too big for this young Orioles squad.

On the other hand, the Royals are rolling out their best starter in Lugo for Game 2. Lugo has been impressive, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He’s the kind of reliable arm you want in a game like this. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Eflin hasn’t looked good against the Royals, giving up 5 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against them.

With the Royals coming in as underdogs and considering the recent form of both teams, TAKING KANSAS CITY (+130) on the moneyline feels like the right move. The Orioles (-155) still need to prove they can handle the postseason spotlight.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll keep my bet to the Royals on moneyline getting those plus odds.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

Playoff baseball is a different beast — players are more cautious, the intensity is higher and runs are often harder to come by. That’s why it’s wise to lean toward the Under in these kinds of games.

The recent trends are also in our favor. The Under has hit in the last 2 meetings between these teams and is 3-2-1 in the last 6.

The Royals have been in a low-scoring groove, with the Under hitting in 7 of their last 8 games. Lugo has been a big part of that trend, with the Under cashing in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Orioles are also coming off 2 straight Under games.

With both sides likely to lean on strong pitching and playoff nerves in play, UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the smart choice here.

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AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles clash Tuesday in Charm City as they swing into the postseason. First pitch in the opener of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Orioles won 4 of 6 games

Kansas City (86-76) overcame a pair of late-season losing streaks to earn the No. 2 AL Wild Card slot. The Royals sport an average offense but a top-notch pitching-and-defense combo. Kansas City’s 3.98 runs per game allowed ranks 6th in MLB.

Baltimore (91-71) was under-.500 (34-38) over its last 72 games, but did finish September on a strong note. The Orioles swept the Minnesota Twins over the weekend and went 5-1 over their last 6 games. Baltimore is the No. 1 AL Wild Card.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Ragans made 32 starts this season, going 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 1-0 win at Washington Nationals last Tuesday
  • Career vs. Orioles: 0-2, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 4 games (2 starts)
  • Notched a 1.08 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .515 OPS in 25 September innings
  • Making his 1st career postseason appearance

Burnes made 32 starts, going 15-9, with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 194 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-1 loss at New York Yankees Thursday
  • Career vs. Royals: 3-0, 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 21 H, 6 BB, 32 K in 5 starts
  • Owns a 1.29 ERA on the strength of a .550 OPS allowed since Aug. 28
  • Has registered a 2.84 ERA across 19 career postseason innings

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Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 9:18 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 3

Moneyline

PASS: look to the run line for a best-value opportunity.

Run line/Against the spread

The Orioles are 8-2 over their last 10 games while Kansas City is just 4-9 with a .531 OPS over its last 13 games. And the Royals are 1-3 over their last 4 series openers.

Ragans has benefitted from some low batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures of late. Per ESPN, current Baltimore bats own an aggregate .837 OPS against him.

Burnes has a postseason pedigree. Per ESPN, current K.C. bats own an aggregate .595 OPS against him.

Baltimore righting the ship late should give the Orioles a shot of confidence in this October opener.

BACK THE ORIOLES -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

The Over is 4-2-1 across the last 7 series meetings. The last 5 Baltimore games have seen the Over cash 4 times (4-1).

The pitching matchup here certainly has the potential to make the rested-bullpen opener a pitchers’ duel. But recency bias has the bats not getting quite enough attention (or more likely has the pitchers getting just too much sway).

Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 7 (+100).

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Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals (85-76) and Atlanta Braves (88-71) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Sunday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-0; Atlanta won 3-0 in 2023

The Braves walked it off with a solo HR by Travis d’Arnaud to win 2-1 on Saturday, taking a 1-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets, as they vie for 1 of the 2 remaining NL Wild,Card playoff spots.

Atlanta has won 5 in a row, while going 7-1 across the past 8 games, showing the type of urgency a team needs in a postseason chase. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 2-5 in the past 7 games, and New York has dropped 3 in a row. The Braves and Mets have a make-up doubleheader at Truist Field set for Monday.

The Royals are into the postseason despite going just 3-9 across the past 12 games since Sept. 15. The good news is that Kansas City pitching has allowed just 11 runs in the past 6 games, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG). However, the offense has managed 3 or fewer runs in 9 of the past 10 games, averaging just 1.6 RPG in the 10-game span.

Royals at Braves projected starters

RHP Alec Marsh vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Marsh (8-9, 4.65 ERA) makes his 25th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 124 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 5 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home setback vs. Detroit Tigers Sept. 18
  • 2024 road splits: 4-5, 4.66 ERA, 63 2/3 IP, 33 ER, 59 H, 11 HR, 17 BB, 65 K, .241 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.19 WHIP in 12 starts
  • Last 7 games: 1-3, 5.01 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 34 H, 10 BB, 37 K, 1.36 WHIP
  • Has never faced Braves

Morton (8-9, 4.08 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 161 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road setbacks vs. Miami Marlins Sept. 20
  • 2024 home splits: 5-5, 3.54 ERA, 89 IP, 35 ER, 10 HR, 36 BB, 91 K, .256 OBA, 1.35 WHIP in 16 starts
  • Last 7 games: 2-2, 3.12 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 36 H, 19 BB, 44 K, 1.36 WHIP
  • Career vs. Royals: 2-2, 4.15 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 29 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 30 K, 1.22 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Royals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:49 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves –250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Royals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Royals 2

Moneyline

The Braves (-250) are keeping their foot on the gas, as they close in on a postseason spot, but are way costly. They’ve won 5 in a row, and 7 of the past 8 games, and Morton is a good bet to pitch the home side to a sweep against Marsh and the Royals (+200).

Kansas City has already clinched a spot, and it has looked disinterested this weekend. The Royals are 3-9 in the past 12 games, too, and the offense has struggled to plate runs lately.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The BRAVES -1.5 (+115) are worth a look on the run line.

The Royals have managed just a single run in 2 games in this series, and just 1.6 RPG across the past 10 outings. Morton is likely to keep them down, while Atlanta feasts on Marsh’s offerings, positioning itself well as it inches closer to the playoffs.

Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-115) is a strong play yet again on Sunday.

The Royals, who have just 1 run in the 1st 2 games of the series, have cashed the Under in 5 of the past 6 games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the previous 26 outings, too.

As far as the Braves are concerned, the Under is 5-0-1 in the past 6 outings. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 starts by Morton, while going 6-2 in his past 8 starting assignments.

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Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals (85-75) and Atlanta Braves (87-71) play the middle contest of a 3-game interleague series Saturday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0; Atlanta won 3-0 in 2023

The Braves miraculously played Friday night despite severe flooding in the Greater Atlanta area due to the recent passing for Hurricane Helene. Atlanta picked up a 3-0 win as a heavy favorite (-178) as the Under (7.5) came through.

With the 8-4 loss by the New York Mets in Milwaukee, the Braves pulled into a tie with the Mets at 87-71 with 4 games remaining for each team, including a makeup doubleheader Monday.

RHP Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder) returns from injury to start. He was limited to just 25 pitches in his last start in Washington Sept. 10.

With Minnesota’s loss Friday, the Royals clinched a postseason spot. While Kansas City is just 3-8 in the past 11 games since Sept. 15, it has allowed just 9 runs in the past 5 outings, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG), as the pitching staff has gotten untracked. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games for the Royals, while going 18-6-1 in the past 25 outings.

Royals at Braves projected starters

RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Lugo (16-9, 3.03 ERA) makes his 33rd start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 204 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 2-0 home setback vs. San Francisco Giants Sunday
  • 2024 road splits: 9-3, 2.67 ERA, 97 2/3 IP, 29 ER, 79 H, 8 HR, 2 BB, 95 K, .218 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts
  • Last 7 games: 3-2, 3.00 ERA (45 IP, 15 ER), 41 H, 8 BB, 43 K, 1.09 WHIP
  • Career vs. Braves: 5-5, 3.79 ERA (57 IP, 24 ER), 54 H, 7 HR, 19 BB, 54 K, 1.28 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 28 appearances (4 starts)

Lopez (8-5, 2.03 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 128 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 12-0 road victory vs. Washington Nationals Sept. 10 (25 pitches)
  • 2024 home splits: 4-2, 1.82 ERA, 74 IP, 15 ER, 6 HR, 28 BB, 84 K, .211 OBA, 1.14 WHIP in 13 starts
  • Last 7 games: 1-2, 2.45 ERA (33 IP, 9 ER), 28 H, 8 BB, 42 K, 1.09 WHIP
  • Career vs. Royals: 5-5, 5.24 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 106 H, 20 HR, 24 BB, 65 K, 1.48 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 26 appearances (14 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Royals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-130) | Braves -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Royals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Royals 3

Moneyline

The BRAVES (-210) are worth a look as favorites in the 2nd game of this crucial series. Atlanta needs to keep pace with New York as the 2 NL East rivals jockey for a playoff spot.

The Royals (+170) haven’t been playing very good baseball lately anyway, but now that they’ve clinched a playoff spot, they won’t be playing with the same kind of urgency as the home side.

Run line/Against the spread

Kansas City +1.5 (-130) will probably hit, but laying $1.30 on the Royals isn’t recommended when they just clinched a playoff spot.

PASS, and if you like K.C., just play it straight up at plus money.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) is worth a look in a game which should have a playoff feel.

Besides, it’s been all about the Under for Kansas City lately, going 4-1 in the past 5 games and 18-6-1 across the past 25 outings. The Under is 4-1 in Lugo’s previous 5 starts, too.

For the Braves, the Under is on a 4-0-1 run across the past 5 games.

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Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals (84-74) and Washington Nationals (69-89) conclude a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Royals 2-0

After dropping 7 in a row, the Royals are a victory away from completing a sweep of the Nationals. Kansas City pitching held Washington scoreless through the first 2 games, winning 1-0 in 10 innings Tuesday as a -196 favorite and 3-0 Wednesday as a -126 fave.

The Royals’ magic number is 3. They are tied with the Detroit Tigers (84-74) for the final 2 Wild Card spots and lead the Minnesota Twins (82-76) by 2 games and the Seattle Mariners (82-77) by 2½ games.

Washington has not been able to get the bats going against the Kansas City Royals, only amassing 7 total hits over these 2 games, including just 2 in Wednesday’s loss. The Nationals have dropped 8 of their last 9 games. They have long been eliminated from playoff contention.

Royals at Nationals projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Wacha (13-8, 3.28 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 161 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2-1 home loss vs. San Francisco Giants Friday
  • 2024 road splits: 6-5, 3.68 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 14 starts
  • Career vs. Nationals: 4-2, 2.74 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 7 games (6 starts)

Corbin (6-13, 5.58 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 169 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-6 loss at Chicago Cubs Sept. 19
  • 2024 home splits: 4-5, 4.41 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Royals: 1-0, 3.38 ERA (16 IP, 6 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • Last start vs. Royals: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 12-10 road win May 26, 2023

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Royals at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Royals -1.5 (-105) | Nationals +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Royals at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 5, Nationals 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Royals (-175) cannot afford to lose this game which is why I’m predicting a Kansas City win, but I’ll take my wager to the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ROYALS -1.5 (-105).

Kansas City really needs this victory. Washington’s starting pitcher Corbin has been a bit of a gamble in the past — and is definitely not the pitcher you want to bet on. While he’s shown some improvement lately, going 4-1 over his last six starts, he still has a reputation for struggling at times.

On the flip side, the Royals are in a good spot right now. Wacha has been solid, posing a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER) in his last 4 starts but only going 2-2.

With Tuesday’s win, Kansas City reached .500 (21-21) in interleague play; Washington fell to 21-24. The Royals are 39-38 on the road, while the Nationals are 36-41 at home.

Considering all these factors, BACKING ROYALS -1.5 (-105) looks like a smart move.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).

The Under has been easy cashes in the first 2 games of this series and is 6-1 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings dating back to 2019.

The Royals have been leaning heavily toward the Under as well, with it hitting in 8 of their last 10 games. They own the 4th best Under record in the majors this season at 85-68-5, according to Teamrankings.com.

The Nationals are also an Under team, cashing below the total in the each of the last 5 games. They rank 8th in Unders at 78-72-8.

With both teams struggling to score lately, BETTING UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the way to go.

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Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals (83-74) and Washington Nationals (69-88) meet in the middle game of a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Kansas City leads 1-0

Kansas City snapped a 7-game losing streak in winning 1-0 in 10 innings Tuesday while covering as a -196 road favorite. CF Kyle Isbel broke the Royals’ streak of 27 straight scoreless innings by scoring on an error. The Royals are tied with the Detroit Tigers for 2nd AL Wild Card spot.

Washington has lost back-to-back games and has gone scoreless in both losses. The Nationals have lost 7 of their last 8 games scoring 14 total runs in that span.

Royals at Nationals projected starters

RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. LHP DJ Herz

Lorenzen (7-6, 3.43 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 126 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K in a 6-1 win over Cleveland Guardians on Aug. 27
  • Has been out with a hamstring injury since his last start
  • Career vs. Washington: 1-2, 5.35 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 25 H, 17 BB, 24 K in 15 appearances (4 starts)

Herz (4-8, 4.30 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 10-0 embarrassment vs. the New York Mets Wednesday
  • First career start vs. Kansas City

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Royals at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals -1.5 (+150) | Nationals +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Royals at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 3, Nationals 2

Moneyline

LEAN ROYALS (-115).

Kansas City is fighting for a playoff spot, so the extra motivation should give the Royals an extra boost and I expect them to get back to their winning ways. But be aware Kansas City is only 3-7 in its last 10 overall and 4-6 in its last 10 games vs. Washington.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I expect the Nationals to cover here as +1.5 (-185) underdogs considering how well they have played KC lately. However, this line is set far too heavily to risk betting on, so bet on the moneymen and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).

The Under has hit in each of Washington’s last 4 games and in each of its last 4 games at home while also going 7-3 in its last 10 overall. For Kansas City, the Under is 3-1 in its last 4 on the road and 7-3 in its last 10 overall.

The Under has also hit in each of the last 3 KC-Washington meetings, also hitting in each of the last 3 in the Nation’s Capital.

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