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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) meet the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) at Super Bowl LVII Sunday. Kickoff at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., is at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s odds for Jalen Hurts’ Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Hurts thrust himself into the conversation for The Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year awards in 2022 by throwing for 3,701 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions with a 101.6 QB rating in 15 regular-season games. He also ran for 760 yards with 13 scores without losing a fumble.
Hurts’ production has slowed down in the postseason, but he was also making his way back from an ankle injury and both games were blowouts. In addition, the competition was ratcheted up a bit, especially against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. He passed for 154 or fewer yards in each playoff win, but he ran for a score in each victory.
Facing the Chiefs will be another challenge, as Kansas City ranked 8th in the NFL in rushing defense during the regular season, allowing just 107.2 yards per game (YPG), while yielding 328.2 total YPG overall (11th).
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Jalen Hurts 2023 Super Bowl prop bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at noon ET.
Passing yards: UNDER 244.5 (-115)
Hurts completed 16-of-24 passes for 154 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT in the NFC Divisional Round victory against the New York Giants and went 15-of-25 passing for just 121 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Based on the 2 playoff victories, the passing yardage total looks super high for Hurts. In addition, he has gone Under 244.5 passing yards in 8 of his past 10 starts if you include the regular season.
This looks like a slam-dunk play. Hurts is a dangerous player who can do some special things with both his arm and his legs. He will be an impact player in this game, but he isn’t going to sniff 245 passing yards.
Take UNDER 244.5 (-115)
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Pass completions: OVER 20.5 (-125)
How you feel about this game is how you feel about this prop. If you feel as if Philadelphia is going to roll, while controlling the line of scrimmage, then it should be more of a running game for the Eagles. That will tamp down the passing yardage and attempts.
The Chiefs’ passing defense allowed 220.9 yards per game during the regular season, ranking 18th in the NFL. I think Hurts and the Eagles will try and mix in the pass with the run during the early going. While the passing yardage total is rather high, the completions are a little on the low side.
We should see a lot of dinks and dunks, trying to get Hurts into a rhythm. He isn’t likely to take a lot of shots downfield but look for plenty of short to intermediate routes, especially in the first half, with the total of completions just inching over the total.
Take OVER 20.5 (-125)
Passing TDs: OVER 1.5 (-105)
Hurts was blanked in the NFC title game with no passing scores against the Niners, and he has gone without a scoring strike in 3 of the past 4 games.
However, he’s tossed 10 TD passes with no interceptions in his past 4 games against AFC opponents, going Over 1.5 TD passes in 3 of those outings during the regular season.
It isn’t hard to envision at least 2 TD strikes from Hurts, especially since the Chiefs are pretty decent against the rush, perhaps changing what Hurts and the Eagles do inside the 5-yard line where they might normally run.
Take OVER 1.5 (-105)
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Rushing yards: UNDER 50.5 (-105)
Hurts is a tremendous runner, but he nicked up his ankle late in the season. Since his return on January 8, Hurts rushed for 13 yards in the regular-season finale against the New York Giants, he had 34 rushing yards against the G-Men in the NFC Divisional Round, and just 39 rushing yards against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs are solid against the rush, and this is a rather high number. It’s uncertain if his ankle is 100 percent, and Kansas City should be able to limit his damage — even if he is fully healthy.
Take UNDER 50.5 (-105)
Interceptions: OVER 0.5 (+115)
Hurts tossed just 6 INT during the regular season, including just 3 in the first 13 games. However, he suffered an ankle injury in Chicago on Dec. 18 and has been a little shaky in the pass game since. While had had 315 passing yards in that game, he tossed a pair of picks, too.
Upon his return in the regular-season finale, he was picked off by the G-Men. While Hurts didn’t have a miscue in the 2 playoff games, the Chiefs should be able to coax him into at least one mistake, especially somebody like CS L’Jarius Sneed or S Juan Thornhill. At plus money, this is worth a roll of the dice.
Take OVER 0.5 (+115)
Pass attempts: OVER 31.5 (-110)
Hurts totaled just 49 passing attempts in his 2 postseason games, with 25 attempts against the 49ers.
In the final 4 regular-season games he went for 31 or more attempts, including 35 or more in 3 of those outings. Again, the Chiefs are harder on the run than the pass, so Hurts might take to the air a little more than he did against the G-Men and Niners in the playoff wins.
Take OVER 31.5 (-110)
Rushing touchdown
- ANYTIME (+110) | 2+: (+600) | 3+: (+2500)
It’s safe to play Hurts to score one rush TD, but don’t look for more than that.
He had a rushing score in both of the postseason games against the Niners and Giants, and he went for 13 rushing scores in 15 regular-season games, posting at least one rush score in 11 of his 17 games this season overall.
Play ANYTIME (+110)
Passing yards
- 200+: (-350) | 250+: (+110) | 300+: (+330)
- 350+: (+975) | 400+: (+1100)
I don’t like any of these numbers. He needs to go Over 250 passing yards for any value, and that’s just not happening. I’d be surprised if goes over 200 passing yards, to be honest.
He’ll have plenty of short to intermediate passes, and he’ll dink and dunk his way to around 180-190 passing yards, but don’t look for much more than that. Most of his damage will be done on the ground.
AVOID.
Rushing yards
- 40+: (-210) | 50+: (-140) | 60+: (+150) | 70+: (+225)
- 80+: (+450) | 90+: (+725)
If I were forced to make a play, it would be 40+ (-210), but there is just no value in risking more than 2 times your potential return. I don’t like him solving the Kansas City rush defense for much more than that, and he certainly isn’t going to be running free all over.
PASS.
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