As if 2020 hasn’t been bizarre enough, three weeks into the season, we’re witnessing things the NFL has never seen in terms of passing yardage. Blame the pandemic for the lack of training camp and a preseason, but offenses are routinely shredding defenses in the early stages of the season and it doesn’t matter if they’re winning or losing.
There was a time when 4,000 passing yards was viewed as the gold standard. You needed to play all 16 games and average 250 yards a game or more. It wasn’t impossible, but not that many quarterbacks met that lofty standard. That has changed the last couple of years. In 2017, just eight made it to that benchmark. In 2018, there were 12. Last season, there were 11.
Heading into Monday night’s game, there are 18 quarterbacks (not including Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson) that are on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and, barring injury, you can expect one of both of them to approach those numbers, which could push to number to 20.
Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Tom Brady are no strangers to the 4,000-yard club, but, in 2020, they rank 16, 17 and 18.
If things stay at their current pace, Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater will be in “the Club.”
But, in what may be the strangest twist of all, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen find themselves in truly rarified air. Through three weeks, Prescott is on pace to throw 763 passes for 6,336 yards. More impressive is Allen, who is on pace to throw for 5,536 yards and 53 touchdowns.
A strong start doesn’t mean a strong finish to the season, but we’re seeing passing numbers the likes of which the NFL has never seen before and it shows no signs of slowing.
Here is the Week 4 Fantasy Market Report:
Fantasy Football Risers
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Only owners who were in desperate need for RBs on their roster snapped up Robinson when the Jaguars cut Leonard Fournette. But, he’s making it more difficult all the time not to start him. Few running backs have cornered the market on carries like Robinson. He has 43 carries for 210 yards and three touchdowns through three games.
The Jags No. 2 rusher is QB Gardner Minshew (12 carries, 60 yards) and No. 3 is versatile wide receiver Laviska Shenault (eight carries, 48 yards). The only other running back with any carries is Chris Thompson (four carries, 10 yards). Robinson isn’t a sexy pick, but few backs can claim a carry-share like him.
Justin Jefferson, WR Minnesota Vikings
Much like his predecessor Stefon Diggs, Jefferson needed time to work his way into the Minnesota offense. In Week 1, he was on the field for 69 percent of snaps. In Week 2, that number dropped to 54 percent. In those two weeks, he was targeted just six times, catching five for 70 yards. He got his first opportunity to be a primary weapon in Week 3.
He was in on 78 percent of snaps and caught seven passes for 175 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown. One game does not make a season, but Jefferson has put himself on the map in a big way, especially for a team that appears to need to score 35 points to win.
James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Those who saw Conner on the sideline in Week 1 looking on as Benny Snell rolled up 113 yards (while Conner had just six carries for nine yards), it looked as if there may be a changing of the guard in Pittsburgh. No so fast, my friend.
Over the last two weeks, Conner has re-established his dominance. While Snell has taken his place in the back seat (10 carries, 16 yards), Conner has posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, carrying 34 times for 215 yards (a 6.3 yard average) and two touchdowns. He was drafted to be a high RB2 in most leagues and is back to posting RB1 numbers like 2018.
Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers
Everyone has waited for someone other than Davante Adams to step up and be the No. 2 guy since Randall Cobb was shown the door. Have they found their guy in Lazard? Through three games, he has averaged 19.5 yards per reception (13-254), has at least one catch of 25 or more yards in each game, has scored two touchdowns from the 5-yard line in (the Super Red Zone) and, in the one game Adams has missed, he caught six passes for 146 yards and a TD in a road win against the Saints.
He’s making a strong case that Aaron Rodgers has a No. 2 guy to go to when Adams returns.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins
He hasn’t been “crazy productive” for the Dolphins, but when you look at potential, you look at competition. The Dolphins signed bruising Jordan Howard as a free agent and traded for Matt Breida.
Howard has three belly-flop touchdowns, which hurts Gaskin’s value a little, but he has just 12 yards on 16 carries. Breida has 15 carries for 63 yards.
Gaskin not only leads the team with 38 carries for 152 yards, but he is also Miami’s leading receiver with 15 receptions. He hasn’t set the world on fire yet, but that sort of a touch concentration – featured back and leading receptor – is a rarity and, with bye weeks coming, his value only increases as a potential spot starter.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon is one of the few players consistently drafted as a RB1 that would get benched during the season. He’s streaky. Few running backs were as hot as Mixon the second half of last season, but it took a lot of patience (and bad weeks) for owners to see any production. He didn’t score a rushing touchdown until the 10th week of the season and many owners had long since given up in frustration.
Here we are in 2020. He was in the RB1 discussion in most leagues again and, through three games, has 52 carries for just 164 yards, has caught seven passes for 58 yards and has no TDs. He’s the only rushing show in town (Giovani Bernard has two carries), but the production just isn’t there to keep starting him every week unless you have to.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Part of what made Gronk great in New England was that he was Tom Brady’s best passing option near the goal line. A year away from the game, many expected to see that magic rekindled in Tampa Bay for both. Not only has Gronk given fantasy owners almost nothing – eight catches, 59 yards, no touchdowns and a long reception of 10 yards – in that same span, Mike Evans has three touchdowns from the 2-yard line in (one of two yards and two from the 1-yard line).
Those who snapped up Gronk on draft day remember the Gronk of old. This may just be the old Gronk.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
Remember when all the buzz in Detroit was that their long running back drought post-Barry Sanders was going to end with the arrival of Swift?
Veteran Adrian Peterson leads the team with 43 carries for 209 yards.
Kerryon Johnson is second with 18 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown.
Through three games, Swift has just eight carries for 20 yards and a TD – fewer rushing yards than glacial QB Matthew Stafford (7-24). We’re still early in the season, but Swift hasn’t ascended to No. 2 on the depth chart, much less No. 1. Is he being punished for dropping a game-winning TD in Week 1? It sure looks like it.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Typically, if you see Washington and Cincinnati on your schedule in two of the first three games of the season, you expect huge numbers. Wentz hasn’t produced that. He has twice as many interceptions (6) as touchdown passes (3) and his passing yardage totals have dropped each week (270, 242, 225).
Wentz was a player taken in fantasy leagues to be a starter more weeks than not. Now he’s a liability if you have to start him and don’t have another viable option (which you should at this point).
Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots
If you have Michel, you should know better than to depend on a Patriots running back. Sure, he had a touchdown in Week 1 and 117 rushing yards on Sunday, but he has yet to have more than 10 carries a game and doesn’t bring much as a receiver – much less when James White returns to the team.
You’re getting what you get with Michel. You roll the dice when you have to and hope for production, but don’t go into any game confident you will see it.
