Assessing the Buffalo Bills’ backfield for fantasy purposes

Will Buffalo rely heavily on the run with a shaky WR corps?

Heading into last season, the Buffalo Bills made the decision to let running back Devin Singletary (now with the New York Giants) depart for greener pastures. That thrust RB James Cook into the lead role. He responded. After rushing for 507 yards while splitting time with Singletary as a rookie, Cook carried the ball 237 times for 1,122 yards last year. That’s solid production from a lead back, especially with a capable running quarterback factoring in.

Things didn’t go as smoothly further down the depth chart. Damien Harris, signed from the New England Patriots to serve as RB2, suffered a severe neck injury in Week 6 and missed the rest of the season. He retired in March. With Harris lost, the team tried its luck in playing veteran Latavius Murray and even brought RB Leonard Fournette onto the practice squad in late October. While Murray (79-300-4) was the best of the bunch, the overall lack of production from that spot was an issue.

General manager Brandon Beane hopes he has addressed that with the selection of Ray Davis in the fourth round, and perhaps even via the signing of undrafted free-agent RB Frank Gore Jr. With major changes at receiver in Buffalo as well, let’s take a look at the Bills’ backfield to see who holds value in 2024.

Fantasy football: Where to draft Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

Analyzing Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen comes into the new season after a disappointing 2022 for his fantasy managers. He’ll look to do better following a 35-touchdown, 14-interception campaign a year ago. Not having to deal with an injured shoulder should definitely help.

Despite the down season, Allen still finished as the 2nd-best QB in fantasy football, according to pro-football-reference.com) — Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs was No. 1. Allen is definitely capable of passing Mahomes for the top spot in the upcoming season.

Below, we look at Josh Allen’s 2023 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

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Josh Allen’s ADP: 15.25

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Allen’s ADP has him getting drafted in the 2nd round (unless you’re in a 16-team league. He’s the No. 2 QB in ADP; Mahomes (12.88) is 1st and the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts (17.69) is 3rd.

Allen finished as the No. 7 overall player in fantasy points last season. If he decides to run the ball less and pass more, he has some serious weapons in WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Plus, the Bills drafted TE Dalton Kincaid in 1st round out of Utah. With this trio leading Buffalo’s receiving corps, Allen should remain among the top quarterbacks in the NFL — for Buffalo and more importantly, in this case, for fantasy leagues.

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Josh Allen’s 2022 stats

Games: 16

Passing yards: 4,283

Completions | attempts: 359 | 567

Passing touchdowns: 35

Interceptions: 14

Carries | rushing yards: 124 | 762

Rushing touchdowns: 7

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Where should you draft Allen?

Although Mahomes is likely to finish above Allen and Hurts has a chance to as well, Allen should be going right in the area he has been going thus far in drafts.

Going early in the 2nd round — a big price to pay for a one-off position in fantasy — is worth it when it comes to Allen. Even in a down season in 2022, he finished as the No. 2 QB and the No. 7 overall player. Getting this production in any position after the 1st round is a solid value.

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Josh Allen picks off Bills’ Josh Allen for Jaguars

Josh Allen is having a game against Josh Allen as the Jaguars face the Bills

First, there was an NFL first as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Josh Allen sacked the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen.

The edge rusher wasn’t content with making the quarterback sack his lone highlight.

Later in the game on Sunday, the Jaguars’ Allen intercepted the Bills’ Allen.

 

Buffalo’s drive before halftime the latest chapter in the Josh Allen saga

The Buffalo Bills scored on before halftime. The drive was more than points, it was the culmination of their young quarterback’s growth.

This. Freakin. Guy.

That is a phrase reserved for the best of the best, the elite passers who can beat you even if you do everything right on a specific play. Think Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and even Tom Brady.

Josh Allen has joined that pantheon of passers.

His ascent to that mountain top was underway throughout the season, but it was perhaps completed in Week 16 when Allen and the Buffalo Bills went into Foxborough and dismantled the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. It led to this video recorded after the game:

Heading into Saturdays’ game against the Indianapolis Colts, I argued that for Buffalo to win on Super Wild-Card Weekend they needed to continue trusting Allen. If Buffalo’s scoring drive prior to halftime is any indication, they are doing just that.

Trailing 10-7, the Bills took possession deep in their own territory after an incompletion on fourth down. They could have played it close to the vest, tried to run the football and not risk a big mistake.

Instead they came out firing, with Allen trying to rip a seam route throw to the right on first down.

When that fell incomplete, you might have expected them to run the football on the next play to perhaps work the clock a little.

Instead Allen dropped to pass again, and after scrambling he found a receiver deep along the right sideline for a huge gain. The play was reviewed and upheld.

Two plays later, this happened:

 

Later in the drive the Bills faced a fourth down in Colts’ territory. They kept Allen and the offense on the field, they used a hard count and when a Colts defender jumped offsides, Allen had a free play. The pass was intercepted.

Thanks to the penalty, the Bills kept possession. And they continued to trust Allen. He came out throwing on the next play, and a potential end zone interception was reviewed, and called incomplete.

The next two plays, the ball was back in the quarterback’s hands. Brian Daboll called for a quarterback draw and Allen worked the football down inside the ten-yard line. On the next snap, Daboll again trusted his quarterback:

Allen, reading the defense, pulls the football and keeps it himself, plunging into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown.

There are many differences between 2019 Josh Allen, and the 2020 version. Last year’s version would have attempted many of these throws that we saw on this drive, but perhaps not completed them, or worse. This version, even with some of the near-mistakes, keeps firing.

And he has a staff – and a team – behind him that trusts him. That believes in him.

That can be all the difference in a world for an offense.