In the moments after the Bears traded a fourth-round draft pick to the Jaguars for Nick Foles, it was tough to process. Everybody knew they were going to add a “competition quarterback” this offseason to challenge and/or replace Mitchell Trubisky, and in an offseason with an unprecedented wealth of options, fans were hoping for a huge splash.
So when Foles ended up being the guy, the takes came fast and furious. Nick Foles?? When Cam Newton was available? Why couldn’t they land Teddy Bridgewater? Even Jameis Winston has more upside. Why not Andy Dalton? And trading a FOURTH ROUND PICK to eat Foles’ massive contract?? This is just Ryan Pace clinging to the idea that Trubisky is still the guy, putting on a show of “competition” but still refusing to admit his mistake.
But as the dust has settled, it has become increasingly clear with each passing day that not only was this the right move for the Bears, it was the only one they could realistically make.
Let’s start by examining the other options. Cam Newton was the splash signing that everyone wanted. It was stunning when the Panthers made the former MVP available in a trade, even more so when Newton made it clear on Instagram that it wasn’t his choice. Multiple reports said Carolina attempted to trade the three-time Pro Bowler to Chicago, where he likely would have been the clear-cut starter.
The player that fans were clamoring for was the 2015 version of Newton, or at least the early 2018 version. That player is better than Nick Foles, and would make the Bears instant contenders. But Newton has not been that guy for some time now. He was a shell of himself in the second half of 2018 due to a shoulder injury, and played two bad games in 2019 (56.2% completion, 0 TDs and 1 INT) before he was placed on IR. In December, he underwent major surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury in his foot.
Even if Newton does fully recover from his injury, the coronavirus has put the NFL in limbo. There is no guarantee that teams will be able to start training camps or preseason on time, let alone offseason programs. Signing a quarterback with huge injury red flags is now a much greater risk than it already would have been, and having Newton as the only backup plan for Trubisky would have been reckless. And clearly, Chicago is not the only team that thought so – Newton is still unsigned in what is now at least the fifth wave of free agency.
Teddy Bridgewater was another top-of-the-market QB that fans wanted in Chicago. And it initially appeared they would get their wish – reports leaked out on the first day of free agency that the Bears were deep in negotiations. But the former Saint ended up signing with Carolina for three years and $60 million. Which is a lot of money for the Bears, who had a very limited amount of cap space headed into the offseason.
Reports suggested the Bears had offered a similar contract to Bridgewater, but the quarterback feared that he wouldn’t be given a fair shake in a competition with Trubisky. Which seems fishy for a number of reasons. For one, you don’t pay someone $20 million per year to be a backup. And if you’re Bridgewater, and you have an option to play on either a playoff contender or a tanking team in a division with three Hall of Fame QBs, would you really choose Carolina, even with the potential competition?
Realistically, the Panthers’ offer was likely too rich for the Bears’ blood. Which is, again, the safe call, especially since Bridgewater hasn’t started a full season since suffering a devastating knee injury in 2016.
Winston is the ultimate wildcard of the free agency class. He threw for 5,000 yards last year, but also 30 INTs. That gaudy yardage could have been his peak, or he could be blossoming into a star. But Winston has a checkered history, and the Bears have historically shied away from players with off-field problems. And despite the fact that some pounded the table for Chicago to give him a shot (guilty), a quarterback room of Trubisky and Winston would be a riverboat-level gamble. (Foles and Winston, however, would be an interesting yin and yang if for some unlikely reason Chicago decides to trade Trubisky.) And guess what? A week into April, Winston is still unsigned, too.
Most reports had the Bears decision down to Foles and Andy Dalton, both who were not free agents and would require a trade. Both carry upside and risk, both have looked like Pro Bowlers at times and backups at others. But Foles had the benefit of familiarity. Dalton worked with new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in Cincinnati, but Foles worked with Lazor, quarterback coach John DeFilippo and Matt Nagy on two occasions (Philadelphia and Kansas City). He ran a very similar offense in Philadelphia to Super Bowl-winning success, and with the offseason in jeopardy, he needs the least amount of assimilation.
The compensation was the major head-scratcher at the time the deal was announced. Last year, Foles signed a 4-year, $88 million deal to be the QB in Jacksonville. He fractured his clavicle in the first quarter of Week 1, and ended up getting replaced by rookie Gardner Minshew. His contract was so massive that some expected the Jaguars would need to package a pick, maybe a high one, to move him. So when Ryan Pace not only didn’t get a pick back, but also let go of a fourth-rounder, some lost their minds (again, guilty).
Several national analysts named the Foles trade among the biggest flubs of the offseason. But then, the details of his “crazy restructure” started to surface. Foles is still owed $21 million in guaranteed money, but that amount is spread over three years. His base salary was cut from more than $15 million per year to only $4 million, with additional incentives if he wins the starting job and collects accolades. As of right now, his cap hit is only $5.33 million, which is microscopic if he ends up being the starter, and still solid for a backup.
The Bears might have used that fourth-round pick on a QB had they not traded it to Jacksonville. Fourth-round quarterbacks rarely pan out. Would you rather have a three-year developmental project who is unlikely to ever start a game, or a guy who won a Super Bowl?
The final argument against the Nick Foles deal was that Ryan Pace was lackluster in his search, bringing in a guy that wouldn’t seriously compete for the job and refusing to let go of the idea of Trubisky as the franchise quarterback. As recently as New Year’s Eve, Pace was in front of the media, telling everyone the plan was for Trubisky to be the starter in 2020.
Ryan Pace routinely lies to the media. Every GM in the history of the NFL does. It’s within their best interest. Why tip their hand about their offseason plans when they’ll be competing with 31 other teams for their guy? Pace also told everyone that Mike Glennon was the starter back in 2017, a month before trading up to draft Trubisky second overall.
It’s clear that Pace knows he made a mistake on that fateful Thursday. He has been routinely pressed on whether or not he will exercise Trubisky’s fifth-year option, and has repeatedly not committed to it. For 2017 draftees, a fifth-year option is not a huge investment in the grand scheme of things. The option is only guaranteed in case of injury, and Pace can rescind it at any point. And yet it still seems very unlikely to happen.
Pace has already mentally broken up with Trubisky, or at least has truly started to imagine life without him. And Nick Foles was the available quarterback most prepared to step in at the drop of a hat and salvage the competitive window provided by their defense. It’s fair to question the logic behind bringing in Jimmy Graham for $16 million, or making only minimal improvements in the offensive line to this point. But Pace’s logic behind trading for Foles was more than sound, and it continues to look better with every passing day.
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