It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Trevor Lawrence isn’t the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, regardless of which team owns the selection. But if it’s the Jets, as projections indicate, many wonder if the Clemson quarterback will do whatever he can to avoid joining a franchise that hasn’t been kind to the development of young quarterbacks in the past decade.
If Lawrence doesn’t want to play for New York, he has one of two options. 1) He can either stay at Clemson for his senior season – something former NFL wideout Roddy White advised him to do. 2) He can say he’ll refuse to play for the Jets if they draft him, as Eli Manning did to the San Diego Chargers in 2003 and John Elway did to then-Baltimore Colts in 1983.
When it comes to Lawrence, however, staying at school would be an absurd choice and shouldn’t be on the table, even if he doesn’t want to be a Jet. Lawrence has already won a national championship with Clemson and could risk a career-threatening injury by playing in college for free for another season. There have been too many horror stories and there’s too much money on the line for Lawrence to wait.
The Manning and Elway moves, while possible, are also unlikely.
Manning and Elway refused to play for the teams who had the top pick because they didn’t like how the organizations were run, particularly when it came to developing young quarterbacks. Manning allegedly heard about the mismanagement of Drew Brees and Ryan Leaf, while Elway saw a Colts team with no direction. Elway also had the added leverage of being drafted by the Yankees to play baseball; then-owner George Steinbrenner was quite high on the outfielder’s major league potential.
The Jets have earned a similar rep with young quarterbacks since Woody Johnson bought the team in 2000. Rookie quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and now Sam Darnold were never really given great tools to develop thanks to bad coaches and/or rosters around them. The team itself has teetered between mediocrity and flat-out awful in the past decade.
It’s understandable that Lawrence wouldn’t want to subject himself to the future, but that’s only if you look at the past as a means of interpreting what’s to come.
Joe Douglas has tried to convince the football world that better days are ahead for Gang Green. The general manager created salary cap flexibility, accrued draft picks and laid the groundwork for a massive rebuilding plan with shrewd moves that hindered the Jets’ in the short-term but could be massively beneficial in the long-term. If he fires Adam Gase and most of the coaching staff after a 2020 horrific season, he’ll essentially give the next coach a blank canvas to work with… as well as a generational talent in Lawrence. That should be appealing for the Clemson quarterback.
It’s similar to the situations the Cardinals and Dolphins gave Kliff Kingsbury and Brian Flores, respectively, in 2019. Kingsbury joined a Cardinals team armed with the top pick that turned into Offensive Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray, while Flores and the Dolphins had a bevy of draft picks to use over a two-year span. Miami has built a well-rounded roster that could be competitive as early as this season.
The idea that the Jets are the worst-case scenario for Lawrence is also a little unfounded.
There are currently six other teams with a first-round selection that have a minimum of one win, and only the Giants, Jaguars, Falcons and Washington are potentially in the market for a new quarterback. Of those teams, only the Falcons have a definitively better roster than the Jets, but they’re also projected to have the third-worst cap situation in 2021, per Over The Cap. They will see a lot of turnover with a new coach next year. The Giants, Jaguars and Washington all have talent deficiencies and none – except for maybe the Giants – can claim to have a better organizational structure.
The Jets, meanwhile, could have as much as $82 million in cap space next season and a new coaching staff if Douglas cleans house. That should be an enviable spot for a young quarterback, depending on who the Jets hire. If Gase somehow stays, then Lawrence should absolutely run for the hills. But otherwise, his situation with the Jets is no worse than any of the other teams with a shot at the first pick.
Darnold remains the final obstacle for a potential Lawrence-Jets marriage. While it’s certainly the most awkward of situations, it’s the easiest to get around. Darnold is still young, shown promise and has at least one more year on his rookie deal after 2020. It wouldn’t be hard for the Jets to find a trade partner for Darnold if Lawrence – or another quarterback – is their target at the top of the draft. The Cardinals traded Josh Rosen for a second-round pick a year after taking him 10th overall. Darnold would surely fetch a similar price, if not more.
Yes, the Jets are a dumpster fire right now. Yes, they don’t have a franchise identity or an obvious plan to be competitive. But that doesn’t mean they’ll still be this bad come April. By that point, Douglas will likely have a new future to pitch to Lawrence, or whomever the Jets take in the first round of the 2021 draft.
