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In a 12-round super middleweight championship bout, Canelo Alvarez puts his belts on the line Saturday against Jermell Charlo at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The preliminary fights begin at 5:30 p.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The main event will take place at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on Showtime Pay-per-view. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Canelo vs. Charlo odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Records: Canelo (59-2-2, 39 KOs) | Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs)
Canelo will defend his undisputed super middleweight title for the 3rd time. He became the undisputed champ in the division in Nov. 2021 against Caleb Plant at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. He stepped up to light heavyweight in May 2022 and was topped by Dmitrii Bivol in an attempt to become a 2-division champ.
Canelo eased by Gennadiy Golovkin in Sept. 2022 to retain his belt and then underwent wrist surgery. He returned in May and topped John Ryder in his native Mexico, also via unanimous decision.
Canelo normally trains at sea level at home in San Diego, but he elected to hold camp near Lake Tahoe at altitude.
Charlo is the current undisputed Super Welterweight title holder. As such, this is the first time 2 undisputed champs have met in the 4-belt era.
The challenger fought against Brian Carlos Castano in July 2021, and the fighters ended in a split-decision draw. In the rematch, Charlo picked up a 10th-round knockout in mid-May 2022. He moves up 2 weight classes to battle the champ.
Canelo vs. Charlo odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:28 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Canelo -480 (bet $480 to win $100) | Charlo +330 (bet $100 to win $330)
- Over/Under: 10.5 rounds (Over -330 | Under +235)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +186)
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Canelo vs. Charlo picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Canelo (-480) will cost nearly 5 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk, and not enough reward. Despite fighting at his usual weight, and Charlo moving up 2 divisions, you just can’t play Alvarez straight up.
Let’s get a little more specific. The past 3 fights for Canelo — including his flirtation with the light heavyweight division — have gone the distance. And 6 of his past 7 bouts have ended up going the distance, too.
METHOD OF VICTORY: CANELO POINTS OR DECISION (-125) is a much more affordable and reasonable play.
Over/Under (O/U)
Yes (-250): Will the fight go the distance? will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return if you do not want to declare a winner. That’s way too expensive.
You also cannot go with Over 10.5 Rounds (-330), which will costs more than 3 times your potential return.
For an added value, play TO BE KNOCKED DOWN: JERMELL CHARLO (+184), as that particular prop pays nearly 2 times your potential return. Canelo should be able to land at least 1 thunderous blow to send Charlo to the canvas.
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Visit Boxing Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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