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When the Minnesota Timberwolves moved up to select Texas Tech wing Jarrett Culver sixth in the 2019 NBA Draft, many praised the move. Coming off of a national championship appearance, Culver was the perfect complementary wing piece to Karl-Anthony Towns, a prospect who could play great defense, play make and hopefully hit jumpers in time.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, most of that promise failed to come to fruition, as Culver’s rookie season was largely a disappointment. He posted 13.9 points, 2.6 assists, 5.1 rebounds and 1.4 steals shooting 29.9% from three and 46.2% from the line with a brutal rTS% of -9.3%.
One area where Culver’s projection was semi-accurate was defensively, where he had a solid season for a rookie on the wing. Player Impact Plus-Minus has Culver as a slight negative (-0.3) and this is accurate if underselling his defensive ability a bit. Only six rookies who recorded over 900 minutes had a higher DPIPM than Culver.
Culver made plays off of the ball, showcasing generally good instincts and anticipation as a team defender and his size and strength made him a solid point of attack defender, capable against ball-screens and especially effective stymieing smalls:
As almost all rookies do, Culver struggled at times navigating ball-screens and occasionally missed rotations as a help defender:
On the whole, Culver’s defense is at a good point at this stage of his career and most expect him to continue to grow on that end into a positive defender. Minnesota’s defense was one of the worst in the NBA and Culver’s presence improved their defensive rating by 2.1 points. And though the defense was fairly as-expected for Culver, the offense underwhelmed by every metric.
Culver’s main weakness offensively coming into the NBA was his scoring creation, with concern surrounding his jumper and ball-handling. Yet, many had confidence in both to relative degrees, based on Culver’s strength, touch and slashing technique and his decent free-throw percentage and better shooting as a freshman with lower usage.
In his rookie season, his inability to separate and inability to make shots resulted in one of the least efficient rookie seasons in NBA history and a -1.63 OPIPM, which would be lower without improvement as his season went on.
Only 15 rookies in NBA history (>500 minutes) have shot below 30% from three and 50% from the line, the majority of the list being non-NBA players or role players, with Karl Malone as an amusing inclusion and a major outlier.
Culver’s loose handle, lack of burst and weak gravitational pull resulted in a myriad of difficult shots for Culver, which he struggled to convert. Even with breathing room, Culver often settled for tougher shots than necessary, missed open shots and when he did make shots, he had to overcome defenders draped all over him.
His finishing was abysmal, shooting 49.8% around the rim in the half-court, placing in the 23rd percentile. Among players with 200 or more rim attempts, only Miles Bridges and RJ Barrett were worse at the rim:
The jump shooting was just as poor for Culver, his catch-and-shoot efficiency in the 21st percentile and his 42.6 effective field goal percentage was only better than five other players: Eric Gordon, Jae Crowder, Justin Jackson, Jordan Poole and Aaron Gordon (min 100 attempts).
His pull-up efficiency wasn’t horrible, placing in the 46th percentile on off-dribble jumpers. Still, the projection for his shooting on- and off-ball long term is murky, to say the least, given his inability to create separation, wonky mechanics and historically bad free-throw percentage:
Culver’s best chance to improve his effectiveness as a scorer is for his offense to generate advantages off of the ball and get him loose downhill or switched onto smaller defenders. In these areas, Culver flashed some ability to finish against weaker opponents with strength, size and touch:
Culver’s passing was his biggest offensive selling point as a prospect, as the best wing passer in his class. While many believed his on-ball passing would wane, he should have been an effective ancillary playmaker on the wing.
Though Culver showed some passing prowess, his passing underwhelmed relative to expectations, certainly as a function of the absence of scoring threat. Culver didn’t have much of a chance to facilitate and create in the Wolves’ offense and when he did, the result wasn’t great. Culver recorded 336 drives, the third most on the team, with only 14 assists and 17 turnovers.
Even when Culver had openings, he wasn’t as willing to try difficult passes and when he did, he often coughed the ball up. While there were accuracy and decision making issues, Culver flashes some competence as a pick-and-roll distributor at his size, threading pocket passes and hitting poppers regularly.
Most effective passing after a dribble-handoff, a pre-generated advantage lessened the strain on Culver, making decisions easier and passing windows wider:
Heading into his second season, Culver has a long way to go until he can fit his projection as a high-level role-playing two-way wing on a contending team. Even if his defense continues to progress and Culver develops into a good to great wing defender, his offensive is simply untenable on a team that wants to compete.
The good news is Culver has nowhere to go but up in terms of offensive efficiency and any improvement to his shooting would be vital to his future projection. Still, it seems Culver is an offensive player who, at this rate, has to be schemed to succeed. If his passing can regress back to the level it was at during his sophomore season, Culver could be a valuable offensive role player in time, but likely not a starter if the jumper is this bad.
Playing next to Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell could provide him an offensive boost next year, but without serious progression, Culver’s NBA future is gloomy.
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