Japan battles Norway in the Round of 16 Saturday. Kickoff from Wellington Regional Stadium is set for 4 a.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Japan vs. Norway odds, and make our best Women’s World Cup bets, picks and predictions.
Japan had arguably 1 of the most impressive group stage showings. It beat Zambia 5-0 on July 22, Costa Rica 2-0 on the 26th and Spain 4-0 on July 31. It did have just 23% possession against Spain but still managed 5 more shots on frame. Japan ended at the top of Group C with 11 goals for and 0 against. Sweden, England and Japan were the lone nations to win all 3 matches.
It sits 11th in the FIFA Women’s Rankings. Norway sits 12th. Norway advanced after finishing 2nd in Group A, which was won by Switzerland. Norway had 6 goals for and 1 against. That 1 against resulted in a 1-0 loss to New Zealand. It drew Switzerland and then advanced on goal differential after demolishing the Philippines 6-0. In its most difficult matchup, a 0-0 draw with Switzerland, it ended with 4 more shots on goal and 51% possession.
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Japan vs. Norway odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Japan -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Norway +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Draw +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +125 | U: -175)
Japan vs. Norway picks and predictions
Prediction
Japan 1, Norway 1 (Norway advances in extra time)
Moneyline (ML)
SPRINKLE DRAW (+240).
Japan and Spain played with Costa Rica and Zambia in Group C, which was among the more top-heavy parings. Japan dominated everyone but Spain, and even beat La Roja 4-0.
Japan is skilled, but the concern is how it beat Spain—possessing for a fraction of the match and ending with 3 fewer shots. Norway, even in its draw and loss, had more shots and looked like the better side. That should bode well for it against Japan.
Norway has drawn against France (No. 5 in FIFA rankings) and Sweden (No. 3) this year. It should be able to compete at a high level, and against a favored Japan, a DRAW (+240) is worth a play.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (-175).
Norway’s offense has not performed well. That almost cannot be stated loud enough as it scored 0 goals in its 2 toughest matchups and got through by pounding the Philippines 6-0. Its defense has been terrific though, allowing just 1 goal and minimum shots on goal.
Japan is in a similar boat. It thrashed the teams it should have, and then it clobbered Spain in a game that only mattered for seeding. Japan scored 11 goals through 3 matches and allowed 0. Norway’s defense and pace should help slow the game down and make Japan’s attack less lethal.
The juice is there, and it is borderline unplayable. However, at these odds, I like UNDER 2.5 (-175).
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