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The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) and James Madison Dukes (8-4) meet Wednesday in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Hilltoppers qualified for the Conference USA Championship Game, but they were no match for the champion Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Western Kentucky was trampled on the road 52-12 as a 4-point underdog as the Over (59.5) connected.
The ‘Toppers ended up just 1-3 straight up (SU) in the final 4 games, while going just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in the past 6 outings. The offense took a bit of a step back, while the defense was not as good in the second half, and that’s a concern.
Backup QB TJ Finley has hit the portal, but starter QB Caden Veltkamp will finish up. He actually has also entered the portal, but he plans to play. Veltkamp had 23 TDs and 10 INTs for WKU this season, while also running for 7 scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, LB Darius Thomas is a big defection in the portal. He had 37 total stops, a forced fumble, fumble recovery and 4 sacks, leading the team. The Hilltoppers had a total of 26 players enter the portal. This is a rush defense which allowed 221.9 yards per game.
For James Madison, QB Alonza Barnett III is out, but he is dealing with a leg injury, not a portal issue. QB Billy Atkins, a four-year backup, will get the start.
In addition, RB George Pettaway will get a crack at that awful WKU rush defense, and he rolled for a team-high 881 rush yards, 5 TDs and 197 receiving yards with 2 scores.
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Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:58 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Western Kentucky +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | James Madison -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Western Kentucky +7 (-105) | James Madison -7 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Western Kentucky vs. James Madison picks and predictions
Prediction
James Madison 36, Western Kentucky 25
Moneyline
James Madison (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive for a standalone wager, especially with a backup quarterback making his first start with just 2 pass attempts under his belt.
Of course, JMU should be able to pile up the rushing yards against a depleted Western Kentucky (+225) side.
Still, AVOID, and look to the spread instead.
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Against the spread
BACK JAMES MADISON -7 (-115), especially if you can get this at a flat 7. Some books are up to 7 and a hook.
The Dukes should be able to pound the ball on the ground against a Hilltoppers rush defense which was among the worst in the nation. And, JMU might prefer that method given it won’t have the dual threat Barnett due to injury.
Add in the fact Western Kentucky +7 (-105) has 26 transfer portal players, including its sack leader, and the Dukes look mighty attractive laying the points in Boca.
While Veltkamp is expected to play despite hitting the portal, there is no guarantee he goes all the way. We saw this last year with WKU WR Malachi Corley. He surprisingly elected to play in the bowl, despite being a prospect for the NFL Draft. He made only a cameo for the Hilltoppers before opting out during the game, so that’s a concern.
Over/Under
OVER 51.5 (-105) is a strong play in this Boca Bowl.
While the Dukes have to break in a new quarterback, the rush attack should do some serious damage against a Swiss cheese defense for the Hilltoppers.
With Western Kentucky’s poor defense, and it’s quick-strike offense, the Over would normally be a slam-dunk play in its games. With 26 players in the portal, and the defense at an all-time low, the Over looks to be the strongest play here.
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