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In a lightweight bout on the main card, Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Turner vs. Hooker odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
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Records: Turner (13-6-0) | Hooker (22-12-0)
Turner looks to bounce back after suffering a split-decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 285 in early March. That setback stopped a 5-bout win streak for “The Tarantula” that dated back to February 2020. He also saw his streak of 5 straight stoppages come to an end, as he left the decision in the hands of the judges for the first time since a loss at UFC 236 in April 2019.
Hooked halted a 2-bout losing skid with a 2nd-round KO/TKO over Claudio Puelles at UFC 281 in November. He is still just 2-4 across his previous 6 fights. Like Turner, he hasn’t needed to involve the judges much, suffering 3 of those losses in the 1st round and earning the win in the 2nd round last time out.
The southpaw Turner is not only 5 years younger than the Kiwi veteran, but he has a 2-inch reach advantage, too. In addition, Turner holds a 5.63-to-4.83 significant strikes landed per minute, although Hooker is slightly more accurate at 54.57% to 51.16% for the favorite.
Both fighters have very similar takedown average numbers, although Turner is much more accurate with a 66.67% takedown average compared to just 36.67% for Hooker. Turner also sports a solid 1.55 submission average to just 0.31 for Hooker.
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UFC 290: Turner vs. Hooker odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Turner -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Hooker +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +200 | No -300)
UFC 290: Turner vs. Hooker picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Turner (-275) has been far more consistent lately than Hooker. The southpaw from Team Carlson Gracie Riverside did suffer the loss against Gamrot last time out, but he was on a 5-bout win streak prior to that setback. However, you cannot risk nearly 3 times your potential return on Turner.
Hooker (+225) has picked up just 2 victories in the past 6 fights. While the losses came against the who’s who of the weight class, including setbacks to Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier, a loss is still a loss. Turner is fighting with a lot of confidence and Hooker just can’t be trusted right now.
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Instead of playing the 2-way line, let’s get a little more specific. I like Turner’s work on the mat, and he has a 1.55 submission average. Hooker tapped out against Islam Makhachev at UFC 267, and that makes TURNER BY SUBMISSION (+225) a solid value.
If you don’t want to declare a winner, the FIGHT FINISH BY SUBMISSION (+200) can help you double up regardless of who wins.
As far as the Over/Under on rounds, Hooker hasn’t been out of the first round, win or lose, in 3 of his last 5 fights. Turner has seen 3 of his past 4 bouts end prior to the midway point of Round 2. As a result, UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (+100) at even money is a strong play.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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