We are just a few hours away from the start of the 2020 NFL Draft and finding out who the newest members of the Jacksonville Jaguars are. The Jaguars own two first-round picks tonight, both in the top-20, which leaves them in position to draft multiple starting, potentially Pro-Bowl level prospects.
Now, will they draft two Pro-Bowl talents tonight? We can hope so.
Does Dave Caldwell have the propensity to miss on first-round picks? History says, yes.
So, what would have to happen for it to all go wrong? Well, the front office would have to fail to recognize quite how bad the current roster is. After shipping away so many starting players this offseason, and with Yannick Ngakoue and Leonard Fournette rumored to be on the move, the team looks a shadow of its 2019 self, let alone that of the playoff team two years ago.
Despite landing free-agent linebacker Joe Schobert last month, the Jaguars have question marks at just about every position on the roster. With such a lack of talent on the team, the Jaguars can almost throw away any draft plan and just take the best players available. Within reason.
The Jaguars do have needs everywhere, but some of them are more pressing than others. It was made apparent last year that despite the heavy resources that have been put into it, the offensive line isn’t good enough. Therefore, the Jaguars should be looking to secure one of the three top offensive tackles with the No. 9 overall pick.
Now, if a prospect like Isaiah Simmons or Jeff Okudah somehow falls to No. 9, all is forgiven. What couldn’t be forgiven, is if the Jaguars reach on an average quarterback to challenge Gardner Minshew II in the top-10.
There are two legitimate starting quarterback prospects in this year’s class, and both Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are likely to be long gone before Jacksonville takes the virtual podium. Now, if Tagovailoa somehow slides, then Caldwell would be wise to make him a Jaguar. However, using a top-10 selection on either Justin Herbert or Jordan Love would be a mistake for an offense that is devoid of any identity beyond a Fu Manchu under center.
This isn’t to say Minshew’s position as the franchise quarterback should be infallible, but rather that he should be given the year to decide whether he is the answer or not. If for no other reason than if he isn’t, the Jaguars will be in a prime position to take a legitimate franchise quarterback prospect this time next year.
No single draft class has a 100% hit rate with first-round quarterbacks. In 2017 there was Mitch Trubisky, in 2018 there was Josh Rosen, and last year there was Daniel Jones taken at least 20 spots too early. That isn’t to say neither Herbert or Love will work at the NFL level, but Jacksonville isn’t a place a rookie quarterback will find success in 2020.
To couple this cataclysmic mistake, what should have Jaguars fans be worried about at 20? The answer is simple, and it’s the second tier of offensive tackles. The Jaguars seem to be making a living off taking Day 2 offensive tackles and hoping they work. They did it last year with rookie Jawaan Taylor (who looked good despite the penalties), and they did the same thing back in 2017 with Cam Robinson, who most would say has been hot and cold.
As discussed earlier, the Jaguars’ initial plan for the ninth overall pick should really be one of the top-tier offensive linemen. Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs, and Andrew Thomas all look to have the makings of a franchise tackle. Even Mekhi Becton has the traits and size that scouts will fall in love with and try and justify in the top-10.
After that it gets a bit scary, names like Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, and Ezra Cleveland are beginning to be mentioned for the Jaguars at No. 20. Simply put, instead of taking an offensive tackle outside the top-10, why not do it properly and just get one of the elite tackle prospects. That is if the Jags don’t select an elite defender who slid in the draft.
However, with question marks on the interior, the team would perhaps be better suited looking toward some of the Day 2 interior prospects rather than hoping they can hit reaching on a tackle early.
Talents like Cesar Ruiz, Robert Hunt, or John Simpson would be Day 1 starters at guard and provide further insurance if the team decides to move on from Andrew Norwell after 2020.
