There is a huge elephant dominating the room when it comes whether or not to make Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa the QB1 on your fantasy roster, and it has nothing to do with talent. It has everything to do with injuries.
Purely by the numbers, Tagovailoa should be considered one of the top quarterbacks in the league. In 2022, he led all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5), touchdown percentage (6.3 percent), and yards per pass attempt (8.9 yards). The last number was the most powerful because of the distance it was above the second-ranked quarterback (Patrick Mahomes at 8.1 yards per attempt). With explosive receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle locked and loaded in the offense, there is no reason to believe that Tagovailoa can post similar numbers in 2023 – if he can stay on the field.
He is no stranger to injuries. In college, he had hand surgery in March of 2018, ankle surgery in December of 2018, and surgery to repair a dislocated right hip in November 2019. He entered the NFL as an injury risk and nothing has changed since. If anything, it has become more troubling.
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He has played just 36 of a possible 50 games after missing time with hand and rib injuries in his first two seasons and four games last season with a minimum of two concussions — more likely three than two. The last came on Christmas Day, and he didn’t get out of concussion protocol until the end of January – more than a month after sustaining the injury, missing Miami’s playoff game and being pulled from the Pro Bowl.
The concussion cloud is always going to hang over Tagovailoa as the NFL continues to strengthen its concussion protocol and tighten the restrictions of returning to the field – due in no small measure to Tua being pushed back out on the field after what in hindsight appeared to be a concussion prior to the Week 4 injury against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tagovailoa is entering his fourth season – a time when franchises historically begin looking to sign quarterbacks to long-term second contracts that locks them in for several years. Miami isn’t taking those steps, because the front office isn’t convinced he can be a long-term answer – don’t forget the Dolphins made overtures to both Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson while they already had Tua on the roster. The Dolphins have exercised their fifth-year option on Tagovailoa and seem content to play the waiting game.
If there is a positive for Tagovailoa it is that he isn’t a runner, which would protect him more than a quarterback who runs by design. In 13 games last season, he rushed just 23 times (1.8 rushes per game), so the Dolphins offensive play-calling is being tailored to protect him.
Fantasy football outlook
The bottom line for Tagovailoa is that his injury concerns are such that he shouldn’t be considered a candidate to be a QB1 on any fantasy roster. With the talent around him, he has the potential to be huge on a given week, but he should be viewed only as a QB2, because few players have the screaming injury red flags that you get with Tagovailoa.