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The Iowa Hawkeyes (34-4) and South Carolina Gamecocks (37-0) meet Sunday in the National Championship Game of the Women’s NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland is slated for 3 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Iowa vs. South Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
It will be a rematch of a 2023 semifinal as a pair of No. 1 seeds clash in Cleveland.
Iowa advanced after a 71-69 win against No. 3 seed UConn Friday. Things got off to a slow start, but the Hawkeyes came on late. However, there was a controversial offensive foul on the Huskies with 3.9 seconds left with them trailing 70-69. Iowa got the ball back and it hung on for the win, although a late G Caitlin Clark missed free throw helped UConn grab the cover as a 2.5-point underdog.
The Hawkeyes shot just 45.8% (27-of-59) from the field, and just 28.0% (7-of-25) from behind the 3-point line, while turning it over 16 times. Iowa finished with a 37-to-29 rebounding margin as G Sydney Affolter, Clark and G Kate Martin combined for 24 of those boards. Meanwhile, it was F Hannah Stuelke who led the team with 23 points as Clark scored 21 points while struggling from behind the 3-point line (3-for-11).
Iowa has managed a 2-3 against the spread (ATS) mark in its 5 NCAA Tournament games, while the Under holds a slight 3-2 edge.
South Carolina rolled to a 78-59 semifinal win over 11th-seeded NC State Friday. The Gamecocks actually led just 32-31 at halftime, but the Gamecocks used a 29-6 run in the 3rd quarter to pull away for the win and cover as 11.5-point favorites, while the Under (139.5) hung on.
The Gamecocks were led by C Kamilla Cardoso, who went for a game-high 22 points with 11 rebounds and 2 blocked shots, while shooting an efficient 10-of-12 from the field. G Raven Johnson chipped in with 13 points, while G Te-Hina Paopao ended up with 10 points and a team-best 6 assists.
Like Iowa, South Carolina is 2-3 ATS in the Tournament, while the Under is 4-1 in the 5 outings.
South Carolina is No. 1 and Iowa is No. 2 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Iowa vs. South Carolina odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:08 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Iowa +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | South Carolina -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Iowa +6.5 (-110) | South Carolina -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 159.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Iowa vs. South Carolina and predictions
Prediction
South Carolina 81, Iowa 76
Moneyline
South Carolina (-275) will cost 2.75 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
The unbeaten Gamecocks should get the job done in this revenge game after being bounced by the Hawkeyes last season in the Final Four, but I’m not willing and can’t suggest backing a -275 favorite in any sport.
However, expect Iowa (+220) to put up a good fight. This should be an epic cap for one of the most memorable seasons in women’s basketball history.
AVOID a moneyline play unless you’re willing to take a chance with Clark and the Hawkeyes.
Against the spread
IOWA +6.5 (-110) is worth backing, catching more than 3 buckets. Clark and Co. will be a tremendous test for unbeaten South Carolina.
Iowa stunned South Carolina last season 77-73 in the Final Four in Dallas, snapping a 42-game win streak for the Gamecocks. Clark scored 41 points to set a Final Four record, and you can bet she’ll be front and center for the Hawkeyes Sunday, especially after an ugly shooting performance in the semifinal against UConn.
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Over/Under
UNDER 159.5 (-110) is the lean in this title game.
The Under has cashed in 4 of 5 NCAA Tournament games for South Carolina, while cashing in 3 of 5 outings for Iowa. The total almost went low in the UConn game, too, but a late free throw by Clark flipped the total in favor of the Over by a half-point.
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