The Iowa Hawkeyes (19-8, 10-6 Big Ten) travel to the Great Lake State on Tuesday to play the Michigan State Spartans (18-9, 10-6) in the Breslin Center at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze the Iowa-Michigan State odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
The Hawkeyes are No. 17 and the Spartans No. 24 in the USA TODAY Sports men’s basketball coaches poll.
Iowa at Michigan State: Three things you need to know
1. The Spartans have had a bumpy February. Michigan State did smack up Nebraska 86-65 in its last game (Thursday), but is just 2-4 overall this month.
2. Iowa’s 10-6 Big Ten record puts them in a five-way tie for second place in the conference. The Hawkeyes have won back-to-back games, beating No. 23 Ohio State Buckeyes 85-76 Thursday and the Minnesota Golden Gophers 58-55 Feb. 16.
3. The matchup to focus on is Iowa C Luka Garza against Michigan State F Xavier Tillman. Garza has caused matchup nightmares for opponents all season and will need to be the focal point of the Spartans defense. He should be a finalist for Big Ten Player of the Year since he leads the Big Ten in points per game, PER and Win Shares.
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Iowa at Michigan State: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Iowa 80, Michigan State 77
Moneyline (ML)
This is their first meeting of the season, but Michigan State won four straight in the series, three of which by double-digits. However, I give the Hawkeyes a chance to pull off an upset because this Spartans team isn’t as offensively explosive as the previous teams that rolled Iowa. The Hawkeyes have two upperclassmen big men in their starting lineup — Garza and F Ryan Kriener — that both stand taller than any of the Spartans starters. That size advantage could pay dividends for Iowa. Take a flyer on IOWA +310 to win outright.
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Against the Spread (ATS)
Iowa has the best ATS in the Big Ten at 16-8-3. Michigan State is near the bottom with a 12-15 ATS record. The Hawkeyes have been a much better ATS vs. good teams than the Spartans; Iowa is 5-2-2 ATS against ranked opponents, while Michigan State is 1-6 ATS. Bet IOWA +7.5 (+100).
Over/Under (O/U)
Let’s go with the OVER 151.5 (-110) since it correlates with our ML and ATS handicaps. Their combined O/U record is 23-29-2, but Iowa has a 9-7 O/U record in Big Ten games. Also, the Hawkeyes are 6-3 O/U against ranked opponents and the Over has cashed in four of their last five games.
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