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Michigan State basketball gets a huuuuuge road win
Wil and Matt react to Michigan State’s thrilling win against Illinois and talks bout how important that game was from a mental standpoint. Then they rip into the MSU Board of Trustees.
You can find the episode on iTunes, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.
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No. 25 Michigan State hits the road to take on No. 22 Illinois.
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No. 25 Michigan State is reeling, having lost three straight games and five of their last eight. The Spartans will be looking for a better road result as they travel to take on No. 22 Illinois in Champaign Tuesday night (9:00 ESPN). Michigan State is 1-4 in their last five road conference games, with the lone victory coming against Minnesota.
Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.
Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.
Michigan State: 16-8 overall, 8-5 Big Ten
-No. 10 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 19 in adjusted offense
-No. 17 in adjusted defense
-No. 101 in adjusted tempo
Illinois: 16-7 overall, 8-4 Big Ten
-No. 27 in adjusted efficiency
-No. 41 in adjusted offense
-No. 25 in adjusted defense
-No. 250 in adjusted tempo
This will be a matchup of two desperate teams. After being tied for the Big Ten lead just two weeks ago, Michigan State and Illinois have lost a combined five straight games. The Illii lost on the road against Iowa and dropped a massive contest at home to Maryland, which vaulted the Terps into the top spot in the Big Ten. If either team wants to keep their shot at the Big Ten alive, this is a must win. Illinois can’t afford to go two games back to Maryland and Michigan State with both of those teams holding tiebreakers over them. Michigan State can’t afford to lose another conference game if they want to crawl their way back into the regular season race. It should be a good game in an absolutely electric environment.
Let’s dive into some specifics.
A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.
Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 82 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 94 in turnover %, No. 35 in Oreb%, No. 192 in free throw rate
Illinois defense four factors: No. 55 eFG% against, No. 300 in turnover %, No. 51 in Oreb%, No. 18 in FTR
For the first time all season the Michigan State defense is ranked higher than the Michigan State offense in KenPom. The Spartan offense has been an absolute nightmare on the road, especially in the early part of games. Maybe they figured something out in the second half against Michigan? After scoring only 23 points in the first half, the Spartans scored 45 in the second half. We’ll see. The shooting numbers are certainly troubling as they’ve been in decline for a while and Illinois does a pretty good job in that spot defensively. MSU’s turnover issues plagued them early last week, but they cleaned that up after the first ten minutes against Michigan. They’ll absolutely have to protect the ball, especially considering Illinois does not force turnovers at a high rate. An underrated factor to MSU’s offensive decline has been the plummeting of their free throw rate and with Illinois being one of the best teams in the country at preventing opponents from getting to the line, it’s hard to imagine that changing in this game.
Illinois offensive four factors: No. 199 in eFG%, No. 148 in turnover %, No. 7 in Oreb%, No. 160 in FTR
Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 3 in eFG% against, No. 325 in turnover %, No. 61 in Oreb% against, No. 91 in FTR
One of these thiiiiings is not like the others.
Illinois is middling at three of the four factors on offense, but, as you can see, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They attack the glass as a team and have one of the best rebounders in the country in Kofi Cockburn. The Michigan State defense is going to do what it always does; play sound man defense and force tough shots that will lead to a lot of rebounds. If Michigan State wants to win Tuesday night, they absolutely cannot get crushed on the glass. It is, by far, Illinois’ biggest strength on offense. Michigan State is capable of having very good rebounding games, but the bigs are going to have to bring it and the guards are going to have to contribute as well. It has to be the number one concern going into this game for Michigan State.
We always like to look at three-point shooting here and Illinois is quite bad at that. As a team they are 296th in the country in three-point percentage and 324th in 3PA/FGA. In short, they don’t take a ton of threes and they don’t make a ton of threes.
Trent Frazier is their best shooter by volume, shooting 36% on just fewer than five attempts per game. Alan Griffin is also coming on as a shooter. He shoots 39%, but on less consistent volume. Still, he’s liable to take seven threes and make four of them.
Illinois ranks 213th on assists per field goal made. I’d guess a lot of that comes from their offensive rebounding. They get a lot of buckets on putbacks. Outside of that, their highest usage player Ayo Dosunmu plays a fair amount of isolation ball.
Despite Dosunmu’s high volume (he takes 27% of the shots when he’s on the floor) he’s not a very good shooter. His effective field goal percentage is only 50.2% and he struggles from beyond the arc. Where he can be really effective is at the free throw line where he shoots 81%. He doesn’t get there too often–which I think is the best critique of his game–but he certainly has the talent to do it in a given night. Keeping him off the line and forcing tough jumpers will be key.
Illinois is pretty good at limiting opponents’ attempts from three. They rank 57th in that category. I like to look at attempts forced rather than percentages made when evaluating a team’s three-point defense. Sometimes teams get hot and make shots, but a truly good three-point defense limits the amount of threes their opponent takes. Deep shots may be tough to come by for the Spartans.
Illinois is a really good team and it’s hard to win in their building. Add in to that Michigan State’s massive road struggles and this one looks to be an uphill grind for the Spartans. They’re going to have to protect the ball and limit Illinois’ second-chance opportunities. The more they can force the Illini to shoot contested jumpers, the better this will go. This is a huge spot for both teams, which I have highlighted plenty, so I expect a really competitive game. Vegas likes MSU by one point in this one, which I’m sure feels bold for many Spartan fans. KenPom has this one as a 70-69 win for Illinois, at a 51% chance of victory.
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Big Ten basketball update
When we at Badgers Wire share our stories on social media outlets, we hear from readers who comment on these stories. Just the other day, we posted the story about where ESPN’s Joe Lunardi placed the Wisconsin Badgers in his bracketology column. The immediate guess from one commenter was that Lunardi would have the Badgers as a No. 9 seed. That’s roughly where I expected the Badgers to be as well. Yet, Lunardi had the Badgers as a 7 seed. Remember: This was January 28, AFTER (not before) the loss to Iowa which dropped the Badgers to 12-9.
Yes, a 12-9 record normally means the bubble, but I am going to be repeating myself a lot in the next few weeks: This season, normal bubble records don’t mean much. The Atlantic Coast Conference has only three really good teams: Duke, Louisville, and Florida State. Therefore, when teams 4 through 15 in the ACC beat each other, they aren’t getting the quality wins they normally would have gained in previous years. Beating the seventh-place ACC team this season is an NIT or CBI-level victory, not an NCAA Tournament-level victory.
This domino effect exists on a smaller scale in other major conferences. There is a dearth of bids to be handed out. Few teams are making airtight arguments for lock status in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. This is why Wisconsin is still WELL above the bubble cut line entering Saturday’s game against Michigan State, which begins the month of February. (It also begins the month in which we take bracketology seriously. Anything before late January is a waste of time.)
With all of this in mind, let’s put forth the question: Was it a good thing for Wisconsin that the Illinois Fighting Illini beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Thursday night? To me, the answer is clearly yes.
Let’s explain: The Big Ten has a chance to put 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament. No, I wouldn’t expect that it will, but it’s possible. If the eighth through 12th teams in the conference all trade/exchange/balance wins to lift all boats, not just one or two, it can happen.
This is what Wisconsin should want: The Badgers need some exchanges of wins among the teams in the No. 8-12 spots in the conference. Wisconsin does NOT want teams 8-12 to ALL crumble while a stronger top seven solidifies. That means the No. 8 team in the league becomes more of an NIT candidate and less of an NCAA candidate. Wisconsin needs at least nine or 10 Big Ten teams to remain good.
However, Wisconsin doesn’t need more than 10 teams to be good. Wisconsin — especially if it loses several more games (which is quite possible, given everything going on inside the program) — will move a lot closer to the bubble. It will be a bubble team. Viewed in this context, the No. 11 and 12 teams in the Big Ten are bubble competitors for Wisconsin. (No. 10 is too, but that’s where the Badgers need to know that beating the No. 10 Big Ten team is a good win rather than a mediocre one. It’s a balancing act.)
If there are a few teams at the bottom of the Big Ten bubble pile, Minnesota is one of them. Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State are below Wisconsin in the bubble pecking order. Wisconsin would like two of those teams to remain good so that wins over them are valuable, but Wisconsin doesn’t want all four to be good. If all four are good, that’s two more bubble teams UW has to worry about.
Illinois over Minnesota makes the Gophers a less credible bubble team. Wisconsin losing to the Illini looks better, not worse. This is a good bubble result. We will continue to have these discussions in the month of February.
The Wisconsin Badgers were not done any favors by the Purdue Boilermakers last week. If you recall, we wrote about the fact that Purdue hammered Michigan State before the Spartans met Wisconsin. This put Michigan State in a bad mood and gave the …
The Wisconsin Badgers were not done any favors by the Purdue Boilermakers last week. If you recall, we wrote about the fact that Purdue hammered Michigan State before the Spartans met Wisconsin. This put Michigan State in a bad mood and gave the Spartans a wake-up call. Michigan State led by more than 20 points before ultimately beating Wisconsin 67-55 this past Friday. Purdue, with a 29-point drubbing of Michigan State, put Wisconsin in a bad spot.
Entering another Friday night Big Ten game this week, Purdue has once again put Wisconsin in a tough spot… but this time, Wisconsin isn’t playing a team Purdue crushed a few days earlier. Wisconsin is playing the Boilermakers themselves after Matt Painter’s team got smashed at home by the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Yes, Wisconsin’s opponent figures to be mad, much as Michigan State was one Friday earlier, but Purdue isn’t nearly as good as Michigan State. Purdue isn’t putting another team in Wisconsin’s way. Purdue IS the team in Wisconsin’s way. It should make for a fascinating game in Mackey Arena, as the Badgers begin a very difficult four-game stretch with three road trips and one home date against Michigan State.
This is one of the great variables of any sports season. Everyone knows when two teams will cross paths, but no one can know how those two teams will be playing when they ultimately collide. Wisconsin was fortunate to visit Penn State when the Nittany Lions were slumping, but last Friday at Michigan State and this Friday at Purdue are examples of playing teams which have just been embarrassed, which is exquisitely bad luck for UW.
The Badgers will simply have to play through this misfortune, and not allow Purdue’s anger after the Illinois loss to fuel the Boilermakers in West Lafayette.
What will this game show about the Badgers? Here is a simple answer: It is one thing to beat an ordinary (but not terrible) opponent. It is another matter to beat that ordinary opponent when it has extra motivation and desperation on its side. Wisconsin is catching Purdue when the Boilermakers face what is close to a must-win situation. Beating Purdue on a night when the Boilermakers might be playing for their postseason existence will show that Wisconsin can take an opponent’s best punch and withstand a difficult challenge. If Purdue plays on Friday night with the passion normally associated with an NCAA Tournament game, and Wisconsin still thwarts the home team in Mackey Arena, the Badgers will know that they have evolved to a considerable degree… much greater than anyone might have imagined on Christmas Day.
Rutgers and Illinois are fresh faces
Remember October of 2019? The 2019-2020 college basketball season had not yet begun. Did we know how good the Wisconsin Badgers were going to be? No, especially with Micah Potter being prevented from playing by the stupid NCAA. Did we know how well the Badgers were going to play in their first 10 games? No. This team was a mystery. There were lots of mysteries going into the season.
Yet, if you could reliably count on a few things to happen in Big Ten basketball, where would you start? What prediction, more than anything else in Big Ten basketball, would most likely be true?
If you said, “Rutgers won’t make the NCAA Tournament,” you would have given a perfectly logical answer backed by 29 years of history. It has been 29 years, after all, since the Scarlet Knights last made the NCAA Tournament, in 1991.
Rutgers being mediocre (not necessarily bad, but certainly not good enough to reach the Big Dance in March) has been one of the most constant truths in college basketball for decades, right there with Michigan State and Tom Izzo being very good, at the other end of the spectrum of relevance in the sport.
Rutgers not being good enough, and Michigan State being a top team, were the two most reliable predictions one could make about Big Ten hoops this season. If you said that Northwestern would struggle, that’s fair and will be accepted. If you said Nebraska would struggle in a rebuild under Fred Hoiberg, that’s fair as well.
Rutgers being good has been one of the biggest surprises of the season — not necessarily because the Scarlet Knights weren’t developing their players (there WAS progress last season), but because Rutgers has evolved so rapidly and substantially under new coach Steve Pikiell. Rutgers isn’t a bubble team; Rutgers is, at the moment, a solid NCAA Tournament seed, good enough to wear home whites in round one as a higher-seeded team (No. 8 or better). The Scarlet Knights will have to lose four games in a row to become an uncertain NCAA team, riding the bubble near the cut line. Right now, they have margin for error. They are well inside the ropes.
Pick another Big Ten team entering this season. If you were asked to address Illinois — which lost 21 games last season — it would have been reasonable to say the Illini could not get any worse. They were likely to be better if only because the first two seasons for Brad Underwood were so bad. Yet, that kind of reality does not generally point to an NCAA Tournament.
Surprise! Illinois is also an NCAA Tournament team and would need to slide for the bubble to become an unnerving prospect.
Here is the shocking fact of all facts on Tuesday, January 21, before Big Ten games are played in the conference: If the season ended on Tuesday afternoon, Rutgers and Illinois would be top-four seeds at the 2020 Big Ten Tournament. That’s right: Rutgers and Illinois would get double-byes. You would not see them on the court on Big Ten Tournament Wednesday or Big Ten Tournament Thursday. They would debut on Friday and have great chances to make the tournament semifinals on Saturday and CBS national television.
“Where will Rutgers and Illinois be seeded in the Big Ten Tournament?” That question has probably been asked before, but if so, it has been asked because people want to make sure they don’t have to watch TV (or a game in person) when the Big Ten Tournament begins its five-day run on Wednesday. Right now, that same question is a question with NCAA Tournament implications. If Rutgers and Illinois both get a top-four seed, they won’t have to play nearly as many games before the NCAA Tournament begins. They will get tested by other top Big Ten teams if they can win one game and reach the semifinals. Getting that top-four seed means a lot, as Wisconsin fans know. The Badgers come to the NCAA Tournament relatively rested because they have rarely had to play more than two or three games in the Big Ten Tournament this century. Now, Illinois and Rutgers can derive the same benefit.
Will Rutgers and Illinois get a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament? It is surprising enough that we are even asking this question. It is more surprising how meaningful the question actually is.
We will see how meaningful the question is in a month. The rest of the Big Ten will try to restore order, but in a wacky year, who knows how it will all shake out?
More on the loss to Illinois
Was it true? Was it real? Was Wisconsin fully and firmly becoming the strong, reliable defensive force we have known from the past few decades of basketball excellence in Madison? Was Wisconsin in the process of becoming — again — the delightfully annoying team which drives opponents bananas and imposes its will on other teams? There was a mounting body of evidence that the Badgers were creating that necessary identity to overcome their lack of eye-popping, high-end talent on the 2019-2020 roster. They needed to retain that identity and carry it into Wednesday night’s game against Illinois.
After allowing just 28 points in the first half in the Kohl Center, it seemed the Badgers were on the right track. It seemed Wisconsin was going to offer tangible proof that after ping-ponging between success and failure in that 5-5 10-game start to the season, the Badgers were going to craft a five-game winning streak in their next five games and move to 3-1 in the Big Ten.
In the second half, that possibility turned into a stinging defeat. In 15 of those 20 second-half minutes, the Badgers weren’t able to contain Illinois on defense.
In a roughly five-minute span from 9:13 of the second half until 4:16 remaining, Wisconsin allowed just three points and no field goals to the Illini. In that one sequence — which enabled UW to build a seven-point lead — the Badgers were focused and effective at the defensive end of the floor. In the first 11 minutes of the half, and in the last four minutes of the game, however, they lost the plot.
Illinois scored nine points in the first 2:18 of the second half and 19 points in the first 7:45. The Illini posted 26 points in the first 10:47. When Wisconsin clamped down in that five-minute chunk from 9:13 to 4:16, the Badgers were on the verge of showing their resilience late in a game, which is precisely what enabled them to pull that Ohio State win out of the fire. Yet, in the last 4:16 of play, Wisconsin allowed one big bucket after another. Illinois scored 14 points in that span of 4:16, and it was enough — by one aching point — to deal UW a bitter defeat.
Just as it was so sweet to see Wisconsin dig deep on defense to beat Ohio State — holding Kaleb Wesson scoreless in the final 6:32 of regulation — it was a jarring experience to watch Illinois score 14 in the final 4:16 and 43 points in the whole second half to swipe this game from UW’s grasp. One step forward, one step back — this remains the theme of Wisconsin’s season. The Badgers have to find a way to take four steps forward without retreating.
Positive spin
Yes, a loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini hurts the Wisconsin Badgers. Just when it seemed this team was beginning to round into form and establish a clear winning identity, a 71-70 setback suffered in the Kohl Center on Wednesday night puts a halt to Wisconsin’s momentum. When one realizes that two of the Badgers’ four previous wins (part of their four-game winning streak) were against Milwaukee and Rider, it is clear that they have to do a lot more to prove that they can be consistently good. Consistency is very relative when part of “consistency” involves games against downmarket opponents. Wisconsin still has to show that in a two- or three-week stretch of Big Ten play, it can maintain a strong identity.
So, to be clear, we are aware of the bad-news components of Wednesday’s loss, and will discuss those unsettling developments in other articles. In this article, however, it is worth underscoring one point: Even though the Badgers watched the end of their 15-game winning streak over Illinois, it is also true that losing to Illinois isn’t a profile-killer. That applied to the previous two Illinois seasons. Losses to the Illini in 2018 or 2019 were especially bad.
This year, Illinois should win at least 18 games and will have a great chance to win at least 20. The Big Ten is deep and cutthroat — no one needs an explanation of that statement — and Illinois is showing it can hang with other formidable teams in the conference. The Illini notched their 11th win of the season and are 3-2 in the conference. Their three wins haven’t been against the dregs of the league. Brad Underwood’s team has beaten Michigan, Purdue, and Wisconsin. That looks like a bubble team at worst. If Wisconsin wants to take at least some comfort from a very uncomfortable and upsetting loss, that is the main note to emphasize. Illinois is not going to drag down the Badgers’ profile. The problem is that Wisconsin didn’t enhance its own resume.
Can you make the argument that Wisconsin and Illinois are both competing for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid? Yes. However, when comparing Wisconsin to lots of bubble teams in other conferences, the presence of a loss to Illinois won’t be a reason to disqualify the Badgers. If anything, it might be a good loss more than a true negative, a failure to add to a resume rather than a subtraction. There is a difference.
Wisconsin-Illinois look-ahead
In any sports season, one of the key variables of competition which affects outcomes and the evolution of a team (or an individual athlete) is the timing of a meeting against a specific opponent.
Do two teams play when one is clearly ascendant and the other is in decline? Do two teams meet when they are both struggling, or both rising? Does a team face a specific opponent at a point in time when its weakness is especially vulnerable against an opponent’s strength, or vice-versa? How do injuries or suspensions fit into the picture? Timing is so important in sports and sports schedules.
For the Wisconsin Badgers, Wednesday’s opponent is the ideal opponent to face — not in the sense that this game is easy, but in the sense that the Illinois Fighting Illini will test Wisconsin in the way the Badgers need to be tested. If Wisconsin turns in a solid performance and beats Illinois, we can tell that the Badgers are on the right track.
Here’s why: Wisconsin’s win over Ohio State was a classic “stay the course” win, a portrait of resilience and perseverance. This is how Wisconsin needs to win in Big Ten play. This is how the Badgers HAVE to win in Big Ten play. This is how Wisconsin will advance in the NCAA Tournament, assuming the Badgers get there (and they’re looking a lot better now than they did two weeks ago). Illinois is an opponent which requires — and often rewards — resilience. You will see what I mean in the next paragraph:
Illinois led Maryland by 14 points at halftime, but the Illini offense crumbled in the second half. Illinois faltered down the stretch, and Maryland was able to catch and pass the Illini for a 59-58 victory. Illinois is a team which will go through at least one lull in every road game it plays. The Illini are a headache to deal with when they are “ON,” but that switch doesn’t always remain on when Illinois plays away from Champaign. This could very well become a game in which Illinois gets out of the blocks quickly, much as Ohio State roared out of the gate to start the first and second halves on Friday.
The Badgers stayed the course against the Buckeyes. This might be a stay-the-course game against the Illini. Very simply, if Wisconsin takes Illinois’ best punch a few days after absorbing big runs by Ohio State, we can know with a lot more certainty that the Badgers have become what we expect UW to be: the more resilient team on the court when compared to its opponent.
Illinois will offer a stress test to make sure Wisconsin has really and fully become a tough team ready for the rigors of the full Big Ten season. If the Badgers pass this test, they will offer a convincing answer about their readiness for the road ahead.
More on Illinois basketball within the context of the Big Ten
I hasten to offer a clarifying statement at the start of this piece, so that no one gets the wrong idea: There are more than two cycles at work in present-day Big Ten basketball. I am not limiting the amount of cycles to only two. More can be found and remarked on.
Today — here and now — I am focusing on two cycles, and Illinois basketball is part of them. This line of thought offers perspective on the Fighting Illini before Wednesday’s game against the Wisconsin Badgers. It also sheds light on what has been happening in Big Ten basketball in recent years.
Let’s start with the more immediate cycle at work in the Big Ten: the simple reality that downtrodden teams are having a happy moment this season. Illinois was 12-21 last season, but the Illini have begun to make substantial improvements and take concrete forward steps as a program this year. A team which was 4-11 after 15 games at this point in January of 2019 is 10-5 in January of 2020. Illinois has lost to Michigan State, Maryland and Arizona on the road, all expected losses. The Illini would like to have back at least one of two losses — Miami at home, Missouri in St. Louis — but if Illinois is basically one game short of an ideal situation, the program is fundamentally on schedule this season.
Illinois — should it continue its upward trajectory — is poised to make the NCAA Tournament and join both Rutgers and Penn State in the Big Dance. This is one of the central stories of the Big Ten in early 2020: Several teams in the conference are picking themselves off the canvas and creating fresh excitement among their fan bases. It is the year of revival in the conference. If we go back a few years, we can see that other programs — most notably Northwestern — have enjoyed breakthrough seasons after struggling. Even Nebraska made an NCAA Tournament not THAT long ago (in 2014). If a Big Ten basketball program seems to have no hope, wait a few years. Illinois is part of that parade. The Illini have a lot of work to do to make the NCAAs, but they are on the right track. After the first two seasons of Brad Underwood’s tenure in Champaign, that was hardly a sure thing.
Here is the larger cycle Illinois is part of, however: The Illini might be on their way to the NCAA Tournament this season. Let’s say that does indeed happen. Would there be any assurance the Illini could make the music last? This is the uncertainty which looms over most Big Ten programs. I would say that five conference programs — Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State — can currently and reasonably expect to be very good nearly every year with few interruptions. The other nine cannot, or at least, have not yet proven they can.
Wisconsin basketball fans are especially happy — rightly so, I might add — that Minnesota basketball simply hasn’t been able to gain much traction this century. The Golden Gophers have made the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons only once this century, in 2009 and 2010. Minnesota just doesn’t build or gather momentum as a program… and that dynamic applies to the other eight schools in the conference: Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and — of course — Illinois. Name the last time any of those programs hit or came close to hitting their ceiling of potential in back-to-back seasons. Maybe Maryland in recent years, but I would say that Maryland has not maximized its potential in any individual season since joining the Big Ten. The Terrapins have gotten solid NCAA Tournament seeds in the 4 to 6 range, but those teams had 2-seed potential and didn’t come especially close to realizing it.
Cycle No. 1: You can pick yourself up in the Big Ten even if the previous few seasons have been bad.
Cycle No. 2: If you have a good season in the Big Ten — and you’re not a Michigan school, Wisconsin, Purdue, or Ohio State — that good season is typically surrounded by subpar seasons.
These are the two Big Ten basketball cycles Illinois is currently a part of. We will see if the Illini or any of other eight members of the conference’s underclass can break free of these chains in the 2020s.
More on Illinois basketball
Fans of the Wisconsin Badgers can look across the way at the Illinois Fighting Illini on Wednesday night in the Kohl Center and see a familiar story. Illinois inhabits the world Wisconsin lived in a few weeks ago. This is a less complicated point than one might first think.
Very simply, Illinois is currently locked in a rut where the Illini play great basketball at home but simply can’t find a way to break through on the road. Over a full month, Illinois has had the Jekyll-and-Hyde identity Wisconsin displayed in its first month of play this season. The Badgers have seemingly broken their spell by winning in Tennessee on Dec. 28 and then beating Ohio State in Columbus this past Friday. Part of what makes this Illinois-Wisconsin game so interesting is that the Illini are trying to make a Wisconsin-like transformation… and that they need to beat the Badgers in order to achieve it.
On December 7, Illinois almost beat Maryland on the road, but their offense withered on the vine in the second half. They blew a 14-point halftime lead and lost by one. Illinois’ offense didn’t suffer a similar meltdown at home against Michigan on Dec. 11, winning 71-62 against an opponent which had recently risen in the national rankings after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Illinois, following that mid-December win over Michigan, won its next three home games by 14 points or more, including a 26-point thrashing of Purdue this past Sunday. However, the Illini have not been able to carry that level of play to other gymnasiums, especially on offense. Illinois scored 56 points in losses to Missouri and Michigan State. The Illini have not scored more than 58 points in any game played away from Champaign since Nov. 10 in Tucson against the University of Arizona… and they lost by 21 on that night two months ago.
Wisconsin hopes it has permanently gotten past the home-road problem. Illinois is immersed in it right now.
Brad Underwood might ask Greg Gard before Wednesday’s game how he halted the Badgers’ most troubling trend. Don’t expect Gard to offer any advice. Underwood is on his own in the attempt to figure out how the Illini can evolve.
