The final day of the XFL regular season starts with the Houston Roughnecks (6-3) on the road against the Arlington Renegades (4-5). Kickoff is Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Choctaw Stadium (ESPN/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Roughnecks vs. Renegades odds, and make our expert XFL picks, predictions and bets.
The two teams met in Week 2 with the Roughnecks winning 23-14 as 4.5-point home favorites.
The Roughnecks have won 2 straight games and are coming off a 28-21 home win over the Vegas Vipers, covering the 6.5-point spread as favorites. They started the season 4-0, lost 3 straight and since bounced back with 2 consecutive wins. They have locked up the South Division title and will host the Renegades again next week in an XFL semifinal.
The Renegades have lost 3 of their last 4 but clinched 2nd place in the division. They are coming off a 28-26 road loss in overtime to the D.C. Defenders, but they covered as 8.5-point underdogs.
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Roughnecks at Renegades odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Roughnecks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Renegades -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Roughnecks +1 (-110) | Renegades -1 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Roughnecks at Renegades key injuries
Roughnecks
- None
Renegades
- WR Victor Bolden (shoulder) questionable
- DB Javaris Davis (groin) questionable
- RB De’Veon Smith (ankle) questionable
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Roughnecks at Renegades picks and predictions
Prediction
Roughnecks 20, Renegades 18
Moneyline
The Renegades are 2-2 at home this season, while the Roughnecks are 2-2 on the road.
The Renegades scored a season-high 26 points last week in their loss to the Defenders.
Even with the 26-point outburst, the Renegades still have scored the fewest points in the league with 137.
The Roughnecks have allowed an average of 15.2 points per game in their 6 wins.
Here it almost doesn’t matter whether you bet the money line or the spread. the price is almost the same.
Expecting a Houston win, it is a slightly better price here, so BET ROUGHNECKS (-105).
Against the spread
This game is essentially a pick-em.
With only a 1-point spread, the worst outcome is a push if you bet the Renegades and they only win by one.
But the price is -110 to bet the Roughnecks to cover (not lose by more than 1) and the price to bet them to win outright is -105. Save the $5 and bet the moneyline.
PASS.
Over/Under
Only 2 of the Renegades’ games this season combined for more than 40 points, Week 1 and last week.
Only 4 of 9 games for Houston have had totals higher than this games’ projection and when the two teams met in Week 2, they had 37 points.
BET UNDER 41.5 (-110).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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