Houston Roughnecks at Arlington Renegades odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Roughnecks at Arlington Renegades Week 10 odds and lines, with expert XFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The final day of the XFL regular season starts with the Houston Roughnecks (6-3) on the road against the Arlington Renegades (4-5). Kickoff is Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Choctaw Stadium (ESPN/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Roughnecks vs. Renegades odds, and make our expert XFL picks, predictions and bets.

The two teams met in Week 2 with the Roughnecks winning 23-14 as 4.5-point home favorites.

The Roughnecks have won 2 straight games and are coming off a 28-21 home win over the Vegas Vipers, covering the 6.5-point spread as favorites. They started the season 4-0, lost 3 straight and since bounced back with 2 consecutive wins. They have locked up the South Division title and will host the Renegades again next week in an XFL semifinal.

The Renegades have lost 3 of their last 4 but clinched 2nd place in the division. They are coming off a 28-26 road loss in overtime to the D.C. Defenders, but they covered as 8.5-point underdogs.

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Roughnecks at Renegades odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Roughnecks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Renegades -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Roughnecks +1 (-110) | Renegades -1 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Roughnecks at Renegades key injuries

Roughnecks

  • None

Renegades

  • WR Victor Bolden (shoulder) questionable
  • DB Javaris Davis (groin) questionable
  • RB De’Veon Smith (ankle) questionable

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Roughnecks at Renegades picks and predictions

Prediction

Roughnecks 20, Renegades 18

Moneyline

The Renegades are 2-2 at home this season, while the Roughnecks are 2-2 on the road.

The Renegades scored a season-high 26 points last week in their loss to the Defenders.

Even with the 26-point outburst, the Renegades still have scored the fewest points in the league with 137.

The Roughnecks have allowed an average of 15.2 points per game in their 6 wins.

Here it almost doesn’t matter whether you bet the money line or the spread. the price is almost the same.

Expecting a Houston win, it is a slightly better price here, so BET ROUGHNECKS (-105).

Against the spread

This game is essentially a pick-em.

With only a 1-point spread, the worst outcome is a push if you bet the Renegades and they only win by one.

But the price is -110 to bet the Roughnecks to cover (not lose by more than 1) and the price to bet them to win outright is -105. Save the $5 and bet the moneyline.

PASS.

Over/Under

Only 2 of the Renegades’ games this season combined for more than 40 points, Week 1 and last week.

Only 4 of 9 games for Houston have had totals higher than this games’ projection and when the two teams met in Week 2, they had 37 points.

BET UNDER 41.5 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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