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The Oklahoma City Thunder (43-19) welcome the Miami Heat (35-27) to Paycom Center Friday. Tip is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Thunder lead 1-0
The Thunder beat the Portland Trail Blazers 128-120 Wednesday, failing to cover as 13.5-point road favorites. Oklahoma City has been among the best covering teams in the NBA with a 38-24 against-the-spread (ATS) record but is just 1-3 ATS over its last 4 games. It has won 8 of its last 10.
The Heat lost to the Dallas Mavericks 114-108 Thursday, failing to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. They are getting hot at the right time, going 7-2 straight up and 6-3 ATS over their last 9 games. The Heat have lost 2 straight on the road and are led by F Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 21.7 points per game.
In a Jan. 10 meeting, the Thunder covered as 4.5-point favorites with a 128-120 win at Miami as the Over (232.5) hit.
Heat at Thunder odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Thunder -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-106) | Thunder -8.5 (-114)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Thunder key injuries
Heat
(Not yet submitted — below was for Thursday’s game)
- G Tyler Herro (foot) out
- C Kevin Love (heel) out
Thunder
- None
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Heat at Thunder picks and predictions
Prediction
Thunder 118, Heat 108
Moneyline
PASS.
The Thunder (-375) are the 4th-best home team in the NBA, with a 24-6 record. Don’t expect them to lose playing a team on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, but OKC isn’t worth betting on at -375.
Against the spread
BET THUNDER -8.5 (-114).
Oklahoma City is the 2nd-best home-covering team in the NBA, having rewarded bettors in 21 of 30 games. The Thunder have won their last 3 home games by 17, 41 and 22. They are strong at home and are at full strength.
The Heat have lost 2 straight on the road (1-1 ATS), both against contending teams like Dallas and the Denver Nuggets. The difference in this game could come down to taking care of the ball, as the Thunder sit 3rd in turnover rate and Miami is 14th.
Those extra opportunities and the dominance OKC already displays at home make THUNDER -8.5 (-114) a strong play.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 224 (-110).
If there’s 1 thing both teams have consistently done as of late, it is hit the Over. Miami has gone Over in 2 of its last 3 games and 3 of its last 6. It has scored at least 118 points in 2 of its last 3 games.
Meanwhile, OKC has gone Over in 10 of its last 14 games and is 10-3-1 O/U in that span. It has scored at least 127 points in 3 of its last 3 home games. With those trends in mind, take OVER 224 (-110).
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