Heat Pacers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Heat (43-34) face the Indiana Pacers (44-34) Sunday. Tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Pacers odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Series tied 1-1

The standings of the Eastern Conference are tight and teams are trying to avoid the play-in games. The Pacers and Heat are 2 of those teams.

With just a week to go in the regular season, this is a must-win game for both teams. The winner would not only be a game up in the standings, but also hold the tie breaker, making it an essentially 2-game lead.

Both are coming off wins on Friday night. The Pacers beat an injured Oklahoma City Thunder squad 126-112 while the Heat won against the Rockets in Houston 119-104.

Heat at Pacers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Pacers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +1.5 (-110) | Pacers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Pacers key injuries

Heat

F Josh Richardson (shoulder) out

Pacers

G Tyrese Haliburton (back) questionable
G Bennedict Mathurin (shoulder) out
C Jalen Smith (ankle) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Pacers picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 115, Pacers 104

Moneyline

Both teams have been tough underdogs this season so since the books are favoring Indiana, it puts them in a tough spot.

First, the Pacers are 10th in the East in win percentage as a home favorite (16-11). And the Heat are just below the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference in road record at 23-16.

Finally, coming off a win the Pacers are just 20-23 this season while the Heat are a much better 23-19.

LEAN MIAMI -105.

Against the spread

Miami has the 3rd-best record ATS as a road underdog (15-9). But if you like the value of taking them straight up then you don’t need to add this bet.

PASS.

Over/Under

While the Heat are on a 5-game Over streak right now, on the road this season they are 27-12 toward the Under. And, after a win both teams trend toward the Under. Miami is 28-14 and Indiana is 25-18.

BET UNDER 227.5 (-105).

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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (12-15) visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse Monday to battle the Indiana Pacers (14-13). Tip is set for 7 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Pacers odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat lost to the San Antonio Spurs 115-111 at home on Saturday, failing to cover as 12.5-point favorites. Miami has not covered in its last 4 games and is just 8-18-1 ATS on the season.

The Heat are also 3-9 straight up on the road. They are led by F Jimmy Butler, who has missed 8 of the last 10 games. He is averaging 21.8 points per game.

The Pacers lost at home to the Brooklyn Nets 136-133 Saturday. They took a 5-point lead into the 4th quarter, but were outscored 41-33 and failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites.

Indiana is 15-12 ATS on the season, but has covered just 4 of its last 10 games. The Pacers sit 7th in points per game at 115.9 and like to push the pace.

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Heat at Pacers odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pacers +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -2.5 (-110) | Pacers +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Heat at Pacers key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
G Tyler Herro (ankle) probable
G Victor Oladipo (knee) probable
G Gabe Vincent (knee) out

Pacers

G Chris Duarte (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Pacers picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 117, Heat 114

Moneyline

BET PACERS (+120).

The Pacers are 8-5 at home and rank in the top half of the league in offensive rebounding rate (11th) and effective shooting percentage (14th). What they do poorly, defend, Miami may not be able to capitalize on.

Against a team like Indiana, who has C Myles Turner protecting the paint, expect Miami to struggle offensively. The Heat’s offensive rating sits 24th, so keeping up with the high-pace Pacers may be a problem.

Miami has several key players probable as well which could suggest it won’t have them at 100%. Miami’s defense has typically been its bread and butter, but it sits just 13th in defensive rating this season.

Against the spread

PASS.

At these odds, I would prefer to play the money line value, especially given how bad Miami has been on the road.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 227.5 (-115).

The Pacers are 12-14-1 O/U this season. Sitting 4th in the NBA in pace, they are typically getting higher totals, but against the Heat, it fell to a total worth playing.

The Heat have Butler healthy, and his presence should play a factor. Butler has averaged 28 points per game in his last 2, playing 33 minutes per game. In both those games, the Heat went Over the projected total.

Miami is 15-12 O/U this season and have gone over in 6 of its last 9. Given their lacking defense and the presence of a go-to scorer like Butler, back the OVER 227.5 (-115).

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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indiana Pacers (3-5) welcome the Miami Heat (4-5) to Gainbridge Fieldhouse Friday. Tip is set for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Pacers odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Pacers are coming into this game having won 2 of their last 3. Their most recent performance was a 116-109 road loss Monday to the Brooklyn Nets. This will be their 1st game home following a 5-game road trip.

Indiana is led this season by G Tyrese Haliburton, who is averaging 21.9 points and 9.4 assists per game. Rookie G Bennedict Mathurin has also been a stud, averaging 20.4 points.

The Heat have disappointed so far this season and will be without their leading scorer, F Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) All-Defensive C Bam Adebayo could also miss Miami’s lone road game before returning home.

Miami will call on G Tyler Herro more this game as he sits 2nd on the team in scoring, averaging 18.6 per game. The Heat struggle offensively, ranked 26th in points per game.

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Heat at Pacers odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:46 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pacers +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -3.5 (-112) | Pacers +3.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Pacers key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (knee) questionable
F Jimmy Butler (hip) out

Pacers

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Pacers picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 115, Heat 110

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Pacers here, but I think I’d feel more comfortable taking the points.

Against the spread

BET PACERS +3.5 (-108).

Simply put, without Butler on the court, the Heat take a huge hit on both sides of the court and may not be a better team in general.

The Pacers have a rising star, Haliburton, a rim protector in C Myles Turner and a sharpshooter in G Buddy Hield. That is a solid and diverse collection of talent.

The Heat are deep, but replacing Butler’s production on an already-struggling offense is easier said than done. Miami sits 19th in net rating. Indiana is 21st. Also, Indiana is 1st in offensive rebounding rate while Miami is just 16th in defensive rebounding. The extra opportunities should be there for the Pacers.

The Heat are just 1-2 on the road this season and are just 2-7 ATS on the season. They haven’t lived up to the hype, and considering they’re missing Butler, I’d back Indiana here.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 228.5 (-110).

Despite the rebounding woes for Miami, the lack of Butler should pose a large threat to its offense. The Heat already sit 26th in pace, so they want the game slow.

These teams are a combined 8-9 O/U this season.

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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (13-9) travel to Gainbridge Fieldhouse Friday to take on the Indiana Pacers (9-15). Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat will look to get back to their winning ways after dropping two consecutive games, but they’ll have to do so without star C Bam Adebayo for the foreseeable future. Their starting center is set to undergo surgery on a torn UCL ligament in his right thumb.

F Jimmy Butler has also recently missed games as had G Tyler Herro. The Heat are one of the best teams in the East when they’re at full strength, butt hey aren’t currently there. Miami is 13-9 against the spread (ATS).

The Pacers are 12-12 ATS and failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites against the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday. The Pacers are led by F Domantas Sabonis and have performed far better as home (6-5) than on the road (3-10).

Heat at Pacers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:14 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Pacers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-107) | Pacers -5.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Pacers key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (tail bone) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

Pacers

G T.J. McConnell (wrist) out

Heat at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 108, Heat 99

Money line

PASS on the money line. While I like Indiana here, I would’ve bet them at -240 as they’ve been far too sporadic — even at home — to back at that value.

Against the spread

BET on the PACERS -5.5 (-115) as the Heat just aren’t the same team without Butler or Adebayo.

Those two are legitimate All-Defensive players. Missing them will make life much harder on both ends of the court, as we saw against the Cavaliers.

Also making life more miserable is that Sabonis is a big man that operates in the low post primarily, an area typically owned by Adebayo. The Pacers are a top-ten offensive rebounding team and the Heat are down their primary big man so Indiana is the only way to play the spread given its health and enhanced home play.

Over/Under

BET on the OVER 206.5 (-115) as both teams are averaging over 107 points per game and there should be plenty of opportunities for Indiana to feast in the paint.

The Heat will have the electric Herro back in action, and he should give them a big boost offensively, while Pacers should have their way with Maimi’s big defenders down. Indian almost has an offensive rating over 110 at home.

Considering the players missing and their impact, I’d play the Over.

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