The Miami Heat (41-22) play their second game in consecutive days Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets (32-31) in Kevin Durant‘s return to action. Tip-off at the Barclays Center is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami lost a nail-biter Wednesday night to the Bucks 120-119 in Milwaukee on a game-winning bucket by Bucks PG Jrue Holiday in the final seconds. The Heat did cover as 4.5-point underdogs, but the loss snapped a 4-game winning streak.
Brooklyn is 1-3 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS) since the All-Star break. The Nets enter the game after being swept in a home-and-away back-to-back with the Toronto Raptors.
The Heat are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS versus the Nets this season and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).
Heat at Nets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Nets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread: Heat -2.5 (-112) | Nets +2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Heat at Nets key injuries
Heat (not officially submitted)
- PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) questionable
Nets
- C Andre Drummond (knee) probable
- PG Kyrie Irving (ineligible to play) out
- PG Ben Simmons (reconditioning) out
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Heat at Nets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nets 118, Heat 110
Money line
SPRINKLE on the NETS (+115) for a lite wager since Brooklyn’s spread is the sharper play but things will turn around for the Nets with KD back.
Durant is the best basketball player on the planet when fully healthy and is in the 91st percentile of wings for adjusted on/off net rating (plus-10.2), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The bottom line is everything from a basketball perspective falls into place for Brooklyn when KD is on the floor. My main concern with betting the Nets in this spot is the possibility of coach Steve Nash putting KD on a minutes restriction.
But, even if that happens, Brooklyn’s role players should be uplifted just by the mere sight of KD playing basketball.
Also, newly acquired Nets’ Seth Curry and Andre Drummond were immediately inserted into the starting 5 and have been giving Brooklyn good minutes. It’s a small sample size but both Curry and Drummond are in the 99th percentile in their respective positions for adjusted on/off net rating, each above plus-21.0.
On top of that, Miami played a tightly contested battle with Milwaukee Wednesday and the Heat struggle in the second of the back-to-back. Miami is 3-7 SU in those spots with a minus-2.2 adjusted net rating, per CTG.
It just has to be tough for the Heat to get up against two title contenders, in back-to-back nights, both struggling and needing to get wins.
Again, SPRINKLE on the NETS (+115) with the plan of hitting Brooklyn’s spread harder.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET on the NETS +2.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their ML based on all the previous analysis.
Furthermore, all the anti-Brooklyn trends Barney at the Bar is betting the Heat -2.5 (-112) based on, are worthless now with KD’s return.
According to VegasInsider.com, a slight majority of the cash is on Brooklyn but roughly 70% of the bets are on Miami. Since the money column is typically considered the sharp side of the market, it’d be wise to follow the money here.
For the record, the NETS +2.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 221.5 (-112) because of all the firepower on both benches.
However, I’m not as locked into the total for this game as the Brooklyn side and would prefer to just stick with my Nets action.
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