Heat Hornets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (28-22) visit the Charlotte Hornets (14-36) Sunday in a Southeast Division battle. Tip-off from Spectrum Center is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Hornets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat are coming off a 110-105 win vs. the Orlando Magic Friday to end a 3-game homestand. The Heat went 3-0 during the stretch but 1-2 against the spread (ATS), including not covering as 8.5-point favorites vs. the Magic. They have won 7 of their last 9 and lead the Southeast by 3 games.

Charlotte is coming off a blowout 111-96 home win as 3-point underdogs vs. the Chicago Bulls Thursday. The victory was the Hornets’ 3rd in their last 5 games — they also went 3-2 ATS in the span. Prior to the stretch, the Hornets lost 5 in a row and 10 of 12.

Charlotte is last in the division and lost each of the first 2 games against Miami this season. They were back-to-back games in South Florida — a 117-112 setback in overtime as 10.5-point underdogs (Nov. 10) and a 132-115 loss as 8.5-point dogs (Nov. 12).

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Heat at Hornets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Hornets +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Against the spread: Heat -6.5 (-105) | Hornets +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Heat at Hornets key injuries

Heat

F Nikola Jovic (back) out
F Duncan Robinson (finger) out

Hornets

G Cody Martin (knee) out
F Kelly Oubre Jr. (hand) out
G Dennis Smith Jr. (illness) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Hornets picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Hornets 101

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Heat (-240) should win this game as the line suggests, but due to the lopsidedness of the -240 line and the fact that Miami is the road team, steer clear of a wager here. The risk is not worth the possible reward.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +6.5 (-105).

In the past 7 head-to-head meetings — all Miami wins — the Heat have dominated ATS, going 5-1-1. In the last 9, they’re 6-2-1 ATS vs. the Hornets.

Miami is the more fundamental team and has more savvy veterans and are much better defensively, making this a tough matchup for Charlotte.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 222.5 (-112).

All the trends point to the Under.

Miami has been consistently cashing Under tickets recently.

The Under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 games, 6-2 in the last 8 and 10-3 in the last 13.

The Under is also 7-1 in Miami’s last 8 games vs. teams with a losing record, and the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 Miami-Charlotte games.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (37-21) stop by the Spectrum Center Thursday for a 7 p.m. ET game against the Charlotte Hornets (29-30). Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami had its 5-game winning streak snapped Tuesday after losing to the Dallas Mavericks, 107-99, as 5.5-point home favorites. The Heat are 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks.

Charlotte has lost eight of its past nine games (2-6-1 ATS) including back-to-back games to the Memphis Grizzlies (125-118 Saturday) and Minnesota Timberwolves (126-120 in overtime Tuesday).

The Heat are 2-0 SU and ATS versus the Hornets this season and both of their meetings went Under the total.

Heat at Hornets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Hornets +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Against the spread: Heat -5.5 (-107) | Hornets +5.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Hornets key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (shoulder) questionable
C Dewayne Dedmon (personal reasons) out
SG Tyler Herro (knee) out
SG Caleb Martin (Achilles’) questionable

Hornets

SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) out
SF Cody Martin (ankle) out
SF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) out

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Heat at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Hornets 117, Heat 113

Money line

SPRINKLE on the HORNETS (+175), if at all, because Charlotte’s spread is the sharper wager.

However, the Heat (-220) feels suspiciously low considering how each team is trending.

For instance, Miami has a plus-17.3 adjusted net rating (ranked third) and plus-4.8 ATS margin (ranked fifth) over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). While Charlotte has a minus-5.0 adjusted net rating (ranked 22nd) and minus-4.6 ATS margin (ranked 23rd).

Furthermore, maybe the Hornets catch the Heat snoozing as All-Star Weekend begins Friday, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Miami gave Butler the night off. Butler has been dealing with nagging injuries, and either way, the Heat are missing a couple of key contributors in Herro and Dedmon.

Again, it’s only a SPRINKLE on the HORNETS (+175).

Against the spread

Definitely BET the HORNETS +5.5 (-115), heavier than or instead of, their money line because it feels like everyone is going to be on the Heat -5.5 (-107) and Charlotte has ways it can attack Miami.

The Hornets have shot poorly lately, but they are ninth in 3-point percentage on the season. The Heat are 14th in defensive 3-point percentage but 28th in 3-point attempts allowed per game so they’ll give up looks.

Granted, Miami’s defense locked up Charlotte in their first two meetings this season, but the Hornets have a motivation edge because they surely want to enter the All-Star break on a positive note.

Also, Charlotte has a strength-on-weakness edge in ball security versus Miami. The Hornets are fifth in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and seventh in defensive TOV% whereas the Heat are 27th in offensive TOV%.

If Charlotte can get into Miami’s passing lanes, create turnovers and knock down 3s then the HORNETS +5.5 (-115) could win outright.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 225.5 (-115) for a half-unit as a fade against the early line movement, which is due to recency bias.

The first two Heat-Hornets meetings went way Under the total, and this game opened at 228 but was steamed all the way down to 225.5. And still a majority of the money is on the Under, according to Pregame.com.

Finally, we have an Over-friendly officiating crew that has a combined 76-56 O/U record, Miami is eighth in offensive FT/FGA rate and 27th in defensive FT/FGA rate so there could be a lot of free-throw attempts by both teams.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Charlotte Hornets (28-25) host the Miami Heat (33-20) Saturday at Spectrum Center for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami snapped a three-game losing skid by clobbering the Spurs in San Antonio 112-95, easily covering as an 8-point favorite. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.

Charlotte also enters on a three-game losing streak including a 102-101 loss at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday. The Hornets are 2-5 SU and ATS across the last 14 days.

The Heat torched the Hornets 114-99 as 6.5-point favorites Oct. 29 in their first meeting this season. Miami All-Star F Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 32 points on 12-for-19 shooting with 10 rebounds and 5 assists.

Heat at Hornets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:57 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Hornets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread: Heat -3.5 (-107) | Hornets +3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Hornets key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) probable
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable

Hornets

SF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) out

Heat at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Hornets 107

Money line

BET the HEAT (-155) for 1 unit because Miami beats up on bad defenses and on fatigued teams.

The Heat are 15-4 SU versus teams in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.3 adjusted net rating (ranked sixth), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

On top of that, Charlotte struggles with tough defenses and Miami is eight in defensive rating. The Hornets are 7-14 SU versus top-10 defenses with a minus-5.5 adjusted net rating (ranked 22nd), per CTG.

Miami also dominates teams when playing with a rest advantage and Charlotte is terrible when playing with no rest. The Heat are 9-3 SU with a rest advantage (plus-10.1 margin of victory) and the Hornets are 1-8 SU on the second of a back-to-back.

For the record, this is near the top of my price range for Miami’s money line (ML). If the Heat’s ML goes north of -165 then I’d just lay the points with Miami.

BET the HEAT (-155).

Against the spread

PASS.

However, if Miami’s ML gets any higher I’d be comfortable laying points with the Heat -3.5 (-107) in this spot considering how well they perform versus fatigued teams and how poorly the Hornets perform with no rest.

However, Charlotte is 9-2 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS when getting 3-4.5 points so I could see an argument for the Hornets covering here.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 227.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer Miami outright.

This Heat-Hornets total has been steamed up from a 224-point opener and more than 80% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Charlotte has also gotten locked up in its past three games, all against top-10 defenses. The Hornets are 29th in both offensive rating and effective field goal shooting over their last three games.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Charlotte Hornets (31-32) host the Southeast Division rival Miami Heat (34-30) Sunday at Spectrum Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Hornets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Miami has won back-to-back games, three of its last four and six of its last eight games while going 5-2-1 against the spread.

The Heat are the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference and are 2.5 games in front of the eighth-place Hornets. Miami trails the 6-seed Boston Celtics with the same record due to losing a tiebreaker.

Charlotte is 4-4 straight up and ATS in its last eight games with three losses coming against the red-hot New York Knicks, 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks and at the Celtics.

The Hornets are going for a three-game season sweep of the Heat. Charlotte won and covered three in a row against Miami dating back to last March.

Heat at Hornets: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Hornets +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat -5.5 (-110) | Hornets +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Hornets: Key injuries

Heat

PG Goran Dragic (back) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (foot) out
SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out

Hornets

PG Devonte’ Graham (knee) questionable
SF Gordon Hayward (foot) out

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Heat at Hornets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Hornets 115, Heat 110

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the HORNETS (+180) for a quarter unit if at all because I “like” Charlotte plus the points and see a little value with sprinkling on the underdog’s money line.

Charlotte is 17-9 with the highest net rating, second-highest assist-to-turnover rate and highest effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) in clutch situations. Miami is 20th in clutch net rating with the second-worst eFG%.

Again, Charlotte plus the points is the better play but the HORNETS (+180) are worth a tiny wager to win.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET HORNETS +5.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of Charlotte’s money line.

I get the argument the Hornets won’t complete a three-game sweep of the Heat but Charlotte just matches up well with Miami and there aren’t 6 points of difference between the two sides.

The Heat rely on getting to the foul line (seventh in FTA/FG rate) but the Hornets have the third-best defensive FTA/FG rate.

Both teams turn the ball over at a top-10 rate but each is top-10 in defensive turnover rate. Also, Charlotte has the third-lowest defensive rebounding rate and Miami has the second-lowest offensive rebounding rate.

If the Hornets can keep this game close, I really like their chances at stealing the games because of advanced metrics in clutch situations.

The Hornets are 11-6-1 ATS as a home underdog and 7-2 ATS against division opponents. The Heat are 3-8-2 ATS when laying between 5-7 points and 2-9 ATS vs. divisional opponents.

BET 1 unit on the HORNETS +5.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 211.5 (-115) for a half unit because Charlotte’s offense will pick up the pace with PG LaMelo Ball back in the lineup and the defense suffers if Graham can’t play.

Furthermore, the Heat and Hornets went Over the total in each of their past four meetings and Miami has played to the Over in five straight.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Friday’s Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (22-23) drop by the Spectrum Center Friday to play the Charlotte Hornets (22-21) at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Hornets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Miami is on a five-game losing streak (0-5 ATS) including a heartbreaking 125-122 loss last night vs. the Portland Trail Blazers as 2.5-point underdogs where the Heat had a fourth-quarter double-digit lead despite being undermanned.

Charlotte bounced back after losing its first three on a five-game Western Conference road trip to win back-to-back games with the latest being a 122-97 blowout over the Houston Rockets.

The Hornets beat the Heat in their first meeting this season, 129-121 in overtime as 7.5-point road underdogs Feb. 1, and Miami wing Jimmy Butler played and was effective. The Heat made a big splash at the trade deadline acquiring SG Victor Oladipo and PF Nemanja Bjelica, but they will not be cleared to play until at least Monday.

Heat at Hornets: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Hornets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat +1 (-115) | Hornets -1 (-105)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Hornets: Key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (stomach) questionable
PF Nemanja Bjelica (acquisition) out
SG Victor Oladipo (acquisition) out
PG Goran Dragic (back) out

Hornets

PG Brad Wanamaker (acquisition) probable
PG LaMelo Ball (wrist) out

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Heat at Hornets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Hornets 111, Heat 104

Money line (ML)

Ball’s absence probably lowers Charlotte’s offensive ceiling, but the HORNETS (-110) have the depth to make up for it against a Miami team with an ultra-thin backcourt.

Charlotte PG Devonte’ Graham has balled out in his three career games against Miami; he’s averaging 23.3 points per game on .478/.538/.800 shooting with 6.3 assists per game.

Furthermore, Ball being sidelined opens up some usage for guard Terry Rozier, who’s having a career-year and wing Gordon Hayward, who can give Butler fits (if he plays tonight).

In Hayward’s previous three games against Butler, Hayward is scoring 24.3 points per game on 66.6% shooting and 6.3 rebounds per game.

Even though this is the “money line” section since this is essentially a coin-flip game there are applicable trends, and the Hornets perform better vs. the market in this spot.

Miami has the lowest cover rate in division games (2-7 ATS), and Charlotte is 5-1 ATS against Southeast Division opponents with the highest spread differential (plus-9.3 points).

Also, the Hornets are 7-4-1 ATS as a home ‘dog with a plus-6.3-point spread differential.

BET HORNETS (-110) for 1 unit.

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Against the spread (ATS)

PASS unless Charlotte gets up to a 2.5-point underdog then take the spread instead of the money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a lean on Under 213.5 (-110) because Miami plays at the 3rd-slowest pace in the Association and Charlotte will run more half-court offense with Graham replacing Ball at point guard.

However, BetMGM put this total a little too low for there to be any value betting it.

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