Heat Hawks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Heat (43-35) visit the Atlanta Hawks (36-42) Tuesday night. Tip from State Farm Arena is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Hawks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Heat lead 2-1

Miami fell 117-115 against the Indiana Pacers Sunday while covering as a 3-point road underdog. F Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 27 points, and C Bam Adebayo had a double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds. All 5 of the Heat players who scored in double digits had at least 18 points, and the team shot 46.4% from the field in the loss.

The Hawks have lost back-to-back games after falling 142-110 against the Denver Nuggets Saturday and failing to cover as 11-point road underdogs. C Clint Capela and G Dejounte Murray each had a double-double. Capela scored a team-high 19 points with 12 rebounds, and Murray added 14 points and 12 assists. Six Atlanta players, including every starter, scored in double figures, and the team shot 42.5% from the field in the loss.

Heat at Hawks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Hawks +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -3.5 (-110) | Hawks +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (hand) probable
F Nikola Jovic (ankle) probable
F Kevin Love (ankle) probable
F Duncan Robinson (back) out
G Terry Rozier (neck) questionable

Hawks

F Saddiq Bey (knee) out
C Onyeka Okongwu (toe) out
G Trae Young (finger) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Hawks picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Hawks 109

Moneyline

PASS.

The spread presents better value on Miami (-160), which is 4-2 in its last 6 games.

Against the spread

BET MIAMI -3.5 (-110).

The Heat are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games and have covered in 3 of their last 4. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 as favorites.

The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, including 0-3 ATS in their last 3. They have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 as underdogs and each of their last 2 at home. Atlanta is also 28-50 ATS this season.

Over/Under

BET OVER 219.5 (-110).

Both Miami and Atlanta have Over records of 8-2 in their last 10 games.

The Heat have hit the Over in each of their last 6 games and have scored 119 or more points in 4 of their last 6.

The Hawks have scored 110 or more points in 9 of their last 10 games and have given up 113 or more in 4 of their last 6.

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (24-20) battle the Atlanta Hawks (21-22) Monday. Tip from State Farm Arena is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Hawks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat beat the visiting Milwaukee Bucks 111-95 Saturday, covering as 4-point favorites. Miami has covered 4 of its last 5 games and is 18-24-2 against the spread (ATS) on the season. It is 10-11 straight up on the road and has won 3 straight games overall. The Heat are ranked 2nd in the league in opponents’ points per game (108.5).

The Hawks beat the Toronto Raptors 114-103 Saturday, covering as a 7.5-point road underdog. Atlanta is just 17-26 ATS on the season and is 3-3 ATS over its last 6 games. Its strength is offense, ranking 11th in the league in points per game (114.9).

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Heat at Hawks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Hawks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-110) | Hawks +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

G Kyle Lowry (knee) out
F Caleb Martin (quadriceps) questionable

Hawks

C Clint Capela (calf) questionable
G Trae Young (shoulder) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Hawks picks and predictions

Prediction

Hawks 115, Heat 108

Moneyline

BET HAWKS (-105).

The Hawks have won 3 of their last 4 games overall and are 11-9 at home this season. Atlanta also has a good defense, ranking 14th in opponents’ field goal percentage (47%) and 4th in opponents’ 3-point field goal percentage (34.2%).

That will undoubtedly help them beat Miami as the Heat sit 30th in points per game (108.8). The Heat also rank in the bottom 7 in field goal percentage (45.2%) and 3-point field goal percentage (34%).

The Heat’s disappointing offense on the road should aid Atlanta. Miami is 10-11 on the road this season. Considering it all, back HAWKS (-110).

Against the spread

PASS.

A 1.5-point spread isn’t worth the worry. Play Atlanta to win outright.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 224.5 (-110).

Both teams have competent defenses, and the Under has been hot for each recently. Atlanta is 23-20 O/U this season but has gone Under in 4 straight contests and in 5 of its last 6.

Miami has gone Under in 2 straight outings and in 6 of its last 7 as well. The Heat are 20-24 O/U this season. Both teams also rank 24th and 25th in true shooting percentage, so coupled with Miami’s 28th ranking in pace, back the UNDER 224.5 (-110).

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (9-11) head to State Farm Arena Sunday to take on the Atlanta Hawks (11-8). Tip is set for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Hawks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat beat the Washington Wizards 110-107 on Friday, pushing as 3-point favorites. Miami is just 6-13-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. It is 1-7 straight up on the road.

The Heat have 6 players averaging in double figures, led by F Jimmy Butler‘s 20.9 points per game, so it is a full team approach offensively w and that will be needed Sunday with Butler out.

The Hawks are 8-11 ATS and are a solid 7-3 straight up at home this season. They failed to cover as 7-point home favorites in a 128-122 loss to the Houston Rockets on Friday. The Hawks have covered just 4 of their last 10.

Despite shooting the league’s 20th-best field goal percentage, the Hawks strength is scoring, ranking 9th in points per game. G Trae Young leads Atlanta, averaging 28.6 per game.

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Heat at Hawks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Hawks -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-105) | Hawks -5.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
F Max Strus (shoulder) questionable

Hawks

G Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
C Clint Capela (dental) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Hawks picks and predictions

Prediction

Hawks 115, Heat 110

Moneyline

PASS.

The Heat have been awful on the road while Atlanta is 7-3 at home. No moneyline value makes sense to play here.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +5.5 (-105).

Despite electric performances from Young (44 points) and G Dejounte Murray (39), the Hawks lost to Houston. They are 1-2 in their last 3 and 1-2 ATS in their last 3 home games.

The Hawks also aren’t a great shooting team which bodes well for Miami because it allowed just the 12th-best shooting percentage from deep. The Hawks have the league’s lowest turnover rate, but the Heat also rank top 10.

Miami should have the tools to defend Young well, allowing the 7th-fewest points per game this season. The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5, so they are playing at a higher level as well.

Over/Under

BET OVER 224.5 (-105).

The Heat have gone over the projected total in their last 2 and in 7 of their last 10. Miami is 11-9 O/U this season. Atlanta is 5-5 O/U in its last 10 and 4-3 O/U over its last 7.

The Hawks like to run, sitting 5th in pace. With Butler sidelined, the Heat may be more prone to run and less dominant defensively.

Expect a high-scoring battle as neither team turnover the ball over which will equate to more shots. Given the tempo of Atlanta, points should come in bunches.

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (2-1) meet the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks (1-2) Sunday at State Farm Arena for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET and the game broadcasts on TNT. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Atlanta held serve on its home floor Friday by beating Miami in a 111-110 Game 3 nail-biter. Hawks All-Star PG Trae Young hit a go-ahead floater with 5.5 seconds remaining then Atlanta defended a would-be game-winning shot by Heat All-Star wing Jimmy Butler as time expired.

Miami is outperforming Atlanta in three of the “four factors” and scoring 11.2 more points per 100 possessions in these playoffs. Butler has been the best player in the Heat-Hawks series, scoring 28.7 points per game (PPG) on 61.7% true shooting (.533/.429/.727) with a plus-22 net rating.

Heat at Hawks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Hawks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread: Heat -1.5 (-120) | Hawks +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (quadriceps) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (toe) probable

Hawks

C Clint Capela (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at Hawks picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 114, Hawks 110

Money line

LEAN HEAT (-135) because the Hawks could be without their defensive anchor for a third consecutive game in Capela and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards Miami.

Capela is essential to Atlanta’s pick-and-roll (PnR) offense, rim and paint protection and rebounding. The Heat are a far better rebounding team than the Hawks, allowed the fewest paint PPG during the regular season and were ninth in defensive efficiency versus PnR through ball handlers.

Roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Hawks but the Heat’s ML has been steamed from the -115 opener up to the current number according to pregame.com. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

That said, it’s only a LEAN to the HEAT (-135) since Capela’s game status has been upgraded to “questionable” and the Hawks are 5-3 overall as home underdogs.

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Against the spread

PASS since Miami’s ML is only 15 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat -1.5 (-120) so there’s no point in sweating the spread.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 220.5 (-112) because Heat-Hawks has the third-fastest pace in the postseason, both teams had a high offensive free-throw attempt rate during the regular season and both are outstanding 3-point shooting teams.

However, the Under has cashed in four consecutive Heat-Hawks meetings and both offenses tend to settle for long, contested 2-pointers or 3-pointers. An off-shooting quarter by either team could seriously jeopardize an Over bet.

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks Game 3 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (2-0) visit State Farm Arena Friday to take on the Atlanta Hawks (0-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat are coming into this game after taking a commanding 2-0 lead, winning both their home games. Miami defeated Atlanta 115-91 Sunday and 115-105 Tuesday.

Atlanta SG Bogdan Bogdanović (29 points) and PG Trae Young (25 points) combined for 54 points in Game 2 that helped keep things close. The Hawks were still just 12-for-40 from deep, far under their season average.

The Heat were led by a dominant effort from former All-Star SF Jimmy Butler. He scored 45 in Game 2 while no other Heat player had over 15.

The top-seeded Heat covered the spread as favorites in the first two games and are favored in Friday’s Game 3. The Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive rating in the regular season, while Miami sat 4th in defense, the clear strength for both teams.

Heat at Hawks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Hawks +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-112) | Hawks +1.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (quadriceps) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
PF Markieff Morris (hip) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (toe) probable

Hawks

C Clint Capela (knee) out
SG Lou Williams (back) out

[tipico]

Heat at Hawks picks and predictions

Prediction

Hawks 114, Heat 110

Money line

BET HAWKS (+102).

A plus-money value on the Hawks here is attractive, and here’s why. It’s a night-and-day difference for Atlanta at home versus on the road.

Atlanta is 28-14 straight up (SU) and 24-18 against the spread (ATS) at home. Superstar Young averages 30.2 points per game (PPG) at home, 3.7 PPG better than his road average. He also shoots 3.9% better at home (48.0% to 44.1%).

Atlanta was 1-3 SU/ATS against Miami during the regular season but was 1-1 SU/ATS in the home games.

Adebayo has been a key standout for the Heat during the season. With him potentially not at full strength, the Hawks should be able to take advantage, and I expect Atlanta to come out on top in Game 3.

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Against the spread

PASS.

The Hawks haven’t lost by a single point all season, so I’ll take their plus-money odds instead of getting just 1.5 points on the spread.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 221.5 (-108).

The Under is 2-0 so far this series, but as noted, Atlanta is far better at home. During the regular season, it had a 117.7 offensive rating a home. The Hawks are 23-19 O/U at home this season.

The Heat, despite their defensive strength, are actually 49-35 O/U. Miami is the second-best Over road team in the NBA at 26-15 (Minnesota is 31-12).

Combine it all, and I prefer the OVER here.

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (29-16) travel to State Farm Arena Friday to take on the Atlanta Hawks (19-25). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

One of the best covering teams in the league with a 27-18 against the spread (ATS) record, the Heat are coming in having covered 8 of their last 10. However, they’ll be without two key offensive players, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry. The Heat are 7-1 without Lowry this season.

As for the Hawks, their big man Clint Capela is listed as questionable. He’s a crucial factor on both ends of the court. Atlanta has been disappointing this season yet has a 10-11 home record, which compares favorably to their 9-14 road record.

The Hawks are just 17-27 ATS. They lost at home against the Heat Jan. 12 by 24, losing both that two-game series by an average of 15 points.

Heat at Hawks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Hawks -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +1.5 (-115) | Hawks -1.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

G Tyler Herro (health and safety protocols) out
G Kyle Lowry (personal) out

Hawks

G Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
F Danilo Gallinari (ankle) out
C Clint Capela (ankle) questionable

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Heat at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 114, Hawks 109

Money line

BET the HEAT -103.

Miami is just the better team, especially if the Hawks are down Capela.

The big man does make a massive difference, and I’d wait to bet this until knowing his status. Capela hasn’t played since Jan. 7, missing both of the two teams’ matchups earlier this month.

Regardless, the Heat are versatile offensively and have one of the best duos in the NBA with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Heat are the only team in the NBA that ranks in the top seven in both offensive and defensive rating.

Considering they’re 14-11 on the road and have the defenders capable of limiting superstar G Trae Young, I expect them to win this game and may even suggest alternate spreads. One could get Miami -4.5 for +150.

Against the spread

PASS on the spread. Since I like Miami in this situation, I’d prefer to take the better money line odds.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 219.5 (-107).

During the teams’ two-game stint earlier in the season, the total was 1-1 O/U.

The Hawks have been absolutely thriving on the offensive end lately as the Over is 7-3 in their last 10. Similarly, the Heat are 26-19 O/U this season with their last 10 split 6-4 O/U.

Given the trends, I’d lean towards more points, especially with the absence of Lowry and potential absence of Capela.

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (25-15) head to the Big Peach Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Atlanta Hawks (17-22) at State Farm Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

This is the sixth and final game of Miami’s road trip; it’s 3-2 straight-up (SU) and 4-1 ATS through the first five games. The Heat have won their last two games against the Phoenix Suns Jan. 5 and the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday.

Miami has the sixth-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-7.8 points per 100 possessions and the fifth-best spread differential at a plus-6.7 ATS margin over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Atlanta just wrapped up its own six-game road trip, finishing 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS and 2-4 O/U. The Hawks have the fourth-worst non-garbage time net rating at minus-8.6 points per 100 possessions and the second-worst spread differential at a minus-8.0 ATS margin in the last 14 days (per CTG).

Heat at Hawks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Hawks -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +3.5 (-107) | Hawks -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
C Dewayne Dedmon (knee) questionable

Hawks

C Clint Capela (ankle) doubtful
SF De’Andre Hunter (wrist) questionable
SG Cam Reddish (ankle) questionable

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Heat at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Hawks 113

Money line

SPRINKLE on the HEAT (+135) with the plan of betting more on Miami’s spread because the Hawks struggle against good teams and don’t sleep on the importance of Capela’s possible absence.

Miami and Atlanta’s seasons are trending in opposite directions. The Heat are stacking wins and ranked third in the East despite missing several key contributors throughout the season.

On the other hand, the Hawks are 12th in the East and there are rumors PF John Collins is unhappy with his role in Atlanta. There’s even talk about possibly trading Collins for Philadelphia 76ers PG Ben Simmons.

Atlanta is 5-9 SU versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating with a minus-2.5 points per 100 possessions (CTG) and is 2-4 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.

Capela’s rim runs on pick-and-roll action and offensive rebounding tenacity greatly help Atlanta’s offense.

He grades in the 77th percentile of bigs in adjusted on/off net rating and 92nd percentile in adjusted on/off offensive rebounding rate, per CTG, and when he missed the Hawks’ previous game versus the Clippers and they were outrebounded 47-39 (13-6 in offensive rebounds).

L.A. has the fourth-worst rebounding rate in the NBA whereas Miami has the fourth-best rebounding rate. Capela’s potential absence may loom large.

The Heat also tear up bad defenses. Miami is 11-3 SU versus teams in the bottom 10 of adjusted defensive rating with plus-8.1 points per 100 possessions (ranked seventh, per CTG).

Only SPRINKLE on the HEAT (+135) because Miami’s spread is the sharper play.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the HEAT +3.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of their money line because Atlanta has lost ATS in its last nine home games and Miami is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.

The HEAT +3.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because the Heat have gone Over the total in six consecutive games and the Hawks have gone Over in five of their last seven contests.

Plus both teams allow opponents to chuck 3-pointers and each rank in the top-five of 3-point shooting percentage.

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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Friday’s Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (31-28) drop by the State Farm Arena Thursday to play the host Atlanta Hawks (32-27) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Miami is on a three-game win streak with the latest being a 107-87 whooping of the San Antonio Spurs as 1.5-point road underdogs.

The Heat are in seventh place in the East (seeds 7-10 in each conference participate in a postseason play-in tournament), but are just 1 game behind the 5-seed Hawks.

Atlanta lost to the 4-seed New York Knicks 137-127 in overtime as 1.5-point road favorites in what could be a playoff preview.

Before the loss, Atlanta won back-to-back games and five of the previous six games from April 11-20.

These teams split their first two meetings of the season, both in Miami, with the victor winning by double digits and covering in each game. However, Heat’s Jimmy Butler missed both games.

Heat at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Hawks +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat -5 (-110) | Hawks +5 (-110)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Spurs: Key injuries

Heat

SG Tyler Herro (foot) questionable
SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out

Hawks

PG Trae Young (ankle) out
C Clint Capela (back) questionable
SF Danilo Gallinari (foot) questionable
SF Tony Snell (ankle) doubtful
SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) out
SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out

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Heat at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 109, Hawks 100

Money line (ML)

PASS because Miami is the right side, but the Heat (-225) are too expensive for a money line favorite in this quirky NBA season.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Wait until Capela’s official game status is announced because if he cannot play I “LIKE” the HEAT -5 (-110) for a 1 unit, but if Capela does play then I’d only “lean” to Miami covering the spread.

The Hawks will definitely be without Young, who’s one of the highest usage players in the league, and Young’s ability to get to the foul line wreaks havoc on other team’s defenses.

Atlanta is second in FTA/FG rate, and Young is in the 97th percentile of point guards in on-off team free-throw rate (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).

Also, the Hawks have the third-highest offensive rebounding rate in the Association as a team, and Capela has both the highest total and offensive rebounding rate of any player.

Furthermore, Capela averaged 15 points and 15.5 rebounds per game with 16 offensive rebounds in the first two Heat-Hawks games this season.

And again Butler missed these games, and he is in the 94th percentile of wings in team on-off defensive rebounding rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Finally, the Heat are 9-7 ATS as a road favorite whereas the Hawks are just 4-6 ATS as a home dog with a minus-4.6-point margin of victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 213.5 (-110) for a half unit because Atlanta could be without its two most impactful offensive players, and both teams are in the bottom-10 of pace.

Additionally, the Heat have gone Under the total in three straight and the Hawks are 8-13 O/U vs. teams with a winning record.

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