The Cleveland Guardians (56-62) and the Tampa Bay Rays (71-48) wrap up a 3-game series at Tropicana Field Sunday in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 2-0
The Guardians have unexpectedly re-discovered their offense in St. Pete, scoring 13 runs in the 1st 2 games of this series. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Cleveland’s pitching has allowed 15 runs, dropping each outing by a single run. The Over has cashed, too, which is rather unexpected, after a 10-2-1 run to the Under in the previous 13 outings.
The Rays have won 8 of the last 12 games overall, and Tampa Bay currently sits 1 1/2 games back of the Baltimore Orioles for 1st place in the AL East Division. The Rays are 40-21 at home, while boasting an impressive plus-146 run differential, which ranks 3rd in the majors.
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Guardians at Rays projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Bibee (8-2, 2.92 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 101 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 1-0 home win vs. the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 3-1, 4.24 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 23 ER – 9 HR), .277 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts
Eflin (12-6, 3.34 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 129 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 4-2 home win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 10-2, 2.49 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 22 ER – 7 HR), .202 opponent batting average (OBA) in 13 starts
Guardians at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The Rays (-185) are likely going to complete the sweep behind Eflin, who has already racked up 10 victories at home this season. While Bibee should provide plenty of resistance for the Guardians (+150), the rookie hasn’t been nearly as reliable on the road as at home. In fact, he has served up 9 of his 10 homers away from Progressive Field.
Still, PASS, as you can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return, unless you’re including this in a parlay with 4 or more teams.
Run line/Against the spread
The RAYS -1.5 (+115) on the run line is a much better value, although it obviously comes with some risk. Yes, Tampa Bay is going for the sweep, but it won the 1st 2 games in this series by a single run.
Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland puts the lumber to Eflin, as he has been one of the better home pitchers in the majors.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-115) is a rather low number, but both Bibee and Eflin should post plenty of donuts in this game.
The Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 games for the Guardians despite a pair of unexpected Over results in the 1st 2 of this set. The Under was 9-4 in the previous 13 home games for the Rays before this series, too. Look for both teams to have a lower-scoring game Sunday.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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