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The Cleveland Guardians (27-16) go for the series sweep they take on the Texas Rangers (22-22) Wednesday night. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cleveland leads 2-0
Cleveland defeated Texas 7-4 Tuesday, cashing as a (+108) road underdog. The Naylor bros drove in 5 of Cleveland’s 7 runs as C Bo Naylor got the scoring started with a 2-run double in the 2nd, followed up by a 1B Josh Naylor‘s 3-run HR as part of a 6-run inning off Rangers SP Jack Leiter.
Guardians SP Ben Lively got the win, surrendering 3 ER, 5H, 3 BB with 5 K in 5 IP. RP Emmanuel Clase got his 12th save of the year, tied with New York Yankees RP Clay Holmes for the AL lead.
Guardians at Rangers projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Jon Gray
Carrasco (2-3, 5.36 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.79 BB/9 and 6.92 K/9 in 40.1 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 6-3 loss in Chicago to the White Sox on May 10
- Career vs. Rangers: 4-3, 5.63 ERA, 60 H 60 K in 54.1 IP over 11 games (9 starts)
Gray (1-1, 2.36 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.36 BB/9 and 9.66 K/9 in 45.2 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss in Colorado on May 10
- Career vs. Cleveland: 0-2, 5.49 ERA, 19 H 11 K in 19.2 IP in 4 starts
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Guardians at Rangers odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +136 (bet $100 to win $136) | Rangers -162 (bet $162 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-144) | Rangers -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Guardians at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Rangers 4
Moneyline
BET GUARDIANS +136.
The Rangers have a sub-.500 record in Arlington (10-11) while Cleveland enters Wednesday’s action with the 3rd-best winning percentage in the American League. At plus money I will take my chances on Cleveland winning their 6th in a row over Texas.
Run line/Against the spread
BACK GUARDIANS FIRST 5 RUN LINE +0.5 (+100).
Taking a shot on the F5 RL is the better bet as we still win if the game is tied after 5 innings while laying way less juice. Only 6 pitchers out of 98 with at least 40 IP have a lower Stuff+ rating (82) than Gray, who will certainly be challenged by Josh Naylor and 3B Jose Ramirez, who are both in the bottom 10 out of 193 qualified hitters vs. RHP in K%.
Over/Under
PASS.
While the physical characteristics of Gray’s pitches measure somewhat poorly, the game results have not as the 32-year-old’s ERA is 7th-lowest amongst qualified AL starting pitchers. If he falters, he’ll have to turn the baseball over to a Rangers bullpen that has the 2nd-highest team ERA (5.14) in the majors.
Carrasco has given up 7 HRs in his last 4 starts, but is backed by an outstanding bullpen that enters with a 2.38 ERA, lowest in the majors. Plus, only Minnesota has a harder hit percentage (33.5%) vs. RHP than Texas (33.3%) in the AL.
Ultimately for me, too many factors go against each other to make any sort of a play on the total.
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