Tag: Guardians Rangers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Cleveland Guardians (27-16) go for the series sweep they take on the Texas Rangers (22-22) Wednesday night. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cleveland leads 2-0

Cleveland defeated Texas 7-4 Tuesday, cashing as a (+108) road underdog. The Naylor bros drove in 5 of Cleveland’s 7 runs as C Bo Naylor got the scoring started with a 2-run double in the 2nd, followed up by a 1B Josh Naylor‘s 3-run HR as part of a 6-run inning off Rangers SP Jack Leiter.

Guardians SP Ben Lively got the win, surrendering 3 ER, 5H, 3 BB with 5 K in 5 IP. RP Emmanuel Clase got his 12th save of the year, tied with New York Yankees RP Clay Holmes for the AL lead.

Guardians at Rangers projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Jon Gray

Carrasco (2-3, 5.36 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.79 BB/9 and 6.92 K/9 in 40.1 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 6-3 loss in Chicago to the White Sox on May 10
• Career vs. Rangers: 4-3, 5.63 ERA, 60 H 60 K in 54.1 IP over 11 games (9 starts)

Gray (1-1, 2.36 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.36 BB/9 and 9.66 K/9 in 45.2 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss in Colorado on May 10
• Career vs. Cleveland: 0-2, 5.49 ERA, 19 H 11 K in 19.2 IP in 4 starts

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Guardians at Rangers odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians +136 (bet $100 to win $136) | Rangers -162 (bet $162 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-144) | Rangers -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Rangers 4

Moneyline

BET GUARDIANS +136.

The Rangers have a sub-.500 record in Arlington (10-11) while Cleveland enters Wednesday’s action with the 3rd-best winning percentage in the American League. At plus money I will take my chances on Cleveland winning their 6th in a row over Texas.

Run line/Against the spread

BACK GUARDIANS FIRST 5 RUN LINE +0.5 (+100).

Taking a shot on the F5 RL is the better bet as we still win if the game is tied after 5 innings while laying way less juice. Only 6 pitchers out of 98 with at least 40 IP have a lower Stuff+ rating (82) than Gray, who will certainly be challenged by Josh Naylor and 3B Jose Ramirez, who are both in the bottom 10 out of 193 qualified hitters vs. RHP in K%.

Over/Under

PASS.

While the physical characteristics of Gray’s pitches measure somewhat poorly, the game results have not as the 32-year-old’s ERA is 7th-lowest amongst qualified AL starting pitchers. If he falters, he’ll have to turn the baseball over to a Rangers bullpen that has the 2nd-highest team ERA (5.14) in the majors.

Carrasco has given up 7 HRs in his last 4 starts, but is backed by an outstanding bullpen that enters with a 2.38 ERA, lowest in the majors. Plus, only Minnesota has a harder hit percentage (33.5%) vs. RHP than Texas (33.3%) in the AL.

Ultimately for me, too many factors go against each other to make any sort of a play on the total.

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The Cleveland Guardians (26-16) and Texas Rangers (22-21) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cleveland leads 1-0

Cleveland won Monday’s series lid-lifter 7-0 and has won back-to-back games, both by that same score. The Guardians went 5 for 12 with runners in scoring position Monday.

With Monday’s loss, Texas has dropped 4 in a row. Over that span, the Rangers have scored just 6 runs while slashing .200/.261/.262 (.522 OPS).

Guardians at Rangers projected starters

RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Jack Leiter

Lively (1-2, 2.63 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 27 1/3 innings.

• Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 3-2 loss at Chicago White Sox Thursday
• Has never faced Rangers before
• Has his ERA buoyed by a .250 opponents’ BABIP with RISP and is a fly-ball pitcher with a low 5.3% of his fly balls leaving the park

Leiter (0-0, 12.91 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has a 2.35 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 7 2/3 innings.

• Made his last 2 starts at Triple-A Round Rock (2 ER in 11 IP); expected to be recalled for this turn against Cleveland
• Has struggled as a pro after clocking a 2.08 ERA across 22 games for Vanderblt in 2020-21; was the 2nd overall selection in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft
• Has never faced Cleveland before

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Guardians at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Guardians -105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+150) | Rangers +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 6, Guardians 4

Moneyline

The Guardians’ 26 wins figure as a number 4-6 wins heavy for the support analytics under the hood. A .312 BABIP in high-leverage situations has helped. A bullpen yielding a mere .270 BABIP has helped the defense-and-pitching part of the equation. Cleveland has 6 extra-innings victories, and that has certainly helped.

Overall, in many games in the near-term, the Guardians should be two-thirds to a fade (and then make adjustments based on the mound match-up).

This mound duel doesn’t offer up much for Cleveland’s foe, however. Leiter has had his struggles everywhere this year and over his minor-league career. And the Texas bullpen has been awful (5.35 ERA with a shaky 5.0 BB/9).

On the plus side, the Rangers offense is swung around to its best platoon splits when facing right-handers (.723 OPS). And Texas owns a .724 OPS at home and a .740 OPS against fly-ballers.

Maybe not on a full-unit basis, but TEXAS (-115) is the value play here.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: More juice equals less room for betting leverage.

Over/Under

With some overall pitching fade and some play to the Texas offensive numbers (undervalued to to multiple subpar BABIPs on key leverage situations), the Over is the value side here.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the better leverage price: TAKE THE OVER 9 (-115).

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The Cleveland Guardians (25-16) and Texas Rangers (22-20) swing into a 3-game set in Arlington with Monday’s lid-lifter will start at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; teams went 3-3 in 2023

Cleveland is coming off losing 3 of 4 at the Chicago White Sox, but the Guardians have continued to pitch well. The club owns a 3.48 ERA this month.

Texas is back at home after a 10-game road trip that saw the Rangers go 5-5, ending with a 3-game sweep to the Colorado Rockies. Over the 3 losses in Denver, Texas clocked a .577 OPS and went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

Guardians at Rangers projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen

Bibee (2-1, 4.91 ERA) is lined up for his 9th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win vs. Detroit Tigers Wednesday
• Career vs. Rangers: 0-0, 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2 starts

Lorenzen (2-2, 4.66 ERA) is tabbed for his 6th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 29 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 9-4 loss vs. Oakland Athletics Wednesday
• Career vs. Guardians: 2-2, 2.52 ERA (25 IP, 7 ER), 19 H, 7 BB, 16 K in 10 appearances (2 starts)

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Guardians at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Guardians -110 (bet $-110 to win $100) | Rangers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+150) | Rangers -1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Rangers 3

Moneyline

Last year’s split saw each club win all 3 games at home. The Guardians are a fade candidate in general, with run scoring and prevention analytics not matching the club’s won-loss record. But pitching is the great equalizer, and Bibee is a value in that part of the equation.

Cleveland is 13-10 on the road. The lean here may not amount to an actionable one, but peg a sliver of a nod toward the GUARDIANS (-110).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: No value here.

Over/Under

Both starters have good numbers against the other side’s bats. Cleveland has a top-5 bullpen; Texas does not, but the Rangers figure as better than the 4.97 surface ERA they have posted thus far.

The back ends of both pens are in decent shape heading into the series.

BACK THE UNDER 9 (-105).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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