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The Cleveland Guardians (25-16) and Texas Rangers (22-20) swing into a 3-game set in Arlington with Monday’s lid-lifter will start at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; teams went 3-3 in 2023
Cleveland is coming off losing 3 of 4 at the Chicago White Sox, but the Guardians have continued to pitch well. The club owns a 3.48 ERA this month.
Texas is back at home after a 10-game road trip that saw the Rangers go 5-5, ending with a 3-game sweep to the Colorado Rockies. Over the 3 losses in Denver, Texas clocked a .577 OPS and went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position.
Guardians at Rangers projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen
Bibee (2-1, 4.91 ERA) is lined up for his 9th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win vs. Detroit Tigers Wednesday
- Career vs. Rangers: 0-0, 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2 starts
Lorenzen (2-2, 4.66 ERA) is tabbed for his 6th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 29 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 9-4 loss vs. Oakland Athletics Wednesday
- Career vs. Guardians: 2-2, 2.52 ERA (25 IP, 7 ER), 19 H, 7 BB, 16 K in 10 appearances (2 starts)
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Guardians at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians -110 (bet $-110 to win $100) | Rangers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+150) | Rangers -1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
Last year’s split saw each club win all 3 games at home. The Guardians are a fade candidate in general, with run scoring and prevention analytics not matching the club’s won-loss record. But pitching is the great equalizer, and Bibee is a value in that part of the equation.
Cleveland is 13-10 on the road. The lean here may not amount to an actionable one, but peg a sliver of a nod toward the GUARDIANS (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: No value here.
Over/Under
Both starters have good numbers against the other side’s bats. Cleveland has a top-5 bullpen; Texas does not, but the Rangers figure as better than the 4.97 surface ERA they have posted thus far.
The back ends of both pens are in decent shape heading into the series.
BACK THE UNDER 9 (-105).
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