Tag: Greg Roman

10 coaches the Lions should consider for their coaching vacancy

10 coaches the Lions should consider for their coaching vacancy

The Detroit Lions have finally fired coach Matt Patricia and while Darrell Bevell is the interim coach, it’s time to begin looking for the long-term replacement.

Lions Wire editors Jeff Risdon and Erik Schlitt have put their heads together to come up with a Top-10 list of candidates we believe Shelia Hamp Ford should heavily consider for the vacancy.

Those candidates are listed below in alphabetical order.

The Lamar Jackson Reading Room, and missed opportunities in the Ravens’ passing game

Lamar Jackson’s recent comments about offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s play calls overlook Jackson leaving big plays on the field.

Last week, Lamar Jackson stated on the Rich Eisen Show that part of the problem with the Ravens’ passing offense is that defenses are calling out which plays are coming, and with that, “They know what we’re doing. Sometimes stuff won’t go our way if they’re beating us to the punch.”

I wrote last week that this isn’t as big a deal as Jackson is making it out to be. Defensive players and defensive coordinators and advance scouts study trends and tendencies too, and they’re able to impart upon their players and upon themselves what an offense might be doing. More problematic in my opinion is that Jackson is being asked to do more as a passer this season, and it’s not working. The reasons why are open to interpretation — there are people who will tell you that Roman’s passing concepts are indeed to predictable, and that’s holding Jackson back. It’s clear that Baltimore’s run game is not what it was last season, and you can blame that on everything from defenses stacking the box to Marshal Yanda’s retirement to Ronnie Stanley’s season-ending ankle injury… there are attendant issues all over the place there.

And here’s the thing about Roman’s allegedly “too-predictable” offense from a passing perspective — coaches will say all kinds of things about their players in press conferences, but if you want to know how coaches really feel, you’ll know when you see what’s happening on the field. And while Roman has staple passing concepts he wants his quarterback to follow, but that can be said of any offensive play-designer. Most teams don’t have 100 different passing plays — they have, say, 20, with say, five different iterations. The ratio varies from team to team, but it’s not like your playbook is going to be full of wild variance as opposed to closer clusters of married concepts.

So then, we have to run with what Roman is actually doing to scheme guys open, how Jackson is reacting to that, and how defenses are reacting to him. Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus wrote an excellent article this week in which he detailed some of the ways in which opposing defenses are keeping Jackson in check as a passer. As Renner points out, Baltimore’s usage of shifts and motion (71.1% in 2019 vs. 68.8% in 2020), play action (35.2% vs. 32.4%) and heavy sets remain relatively unchanged from last season to this season. It’s how defenses are matching up with those ideas that makes the difference. Now, instead of staying in base personnel to counter the Ravens’ multi-faceted run game, teams are going heavy sub-package and adding man coverage.

This would seem to be nuts for a couple of reasons — first, playing a lot of man coverage against a running quarterback seems like a recipe for disaster. When you’re playing man on the outside, your cornerbacks have to turn their heads away from the quarterback, and that gives the quarterback free rushing lanes. And if you’re playing against lighter boxes, you should be able to run the ball more efficiently. But defenses are choosing to tackle the Ravens with speed and multiplicity of coverage, and it’s working in ways the Ravens would prefer it didn’t.

This season, Jackson has faced dime defenses (six defensive backs) on 75 of his dropbacks. He’s completed 38 of 61 passes for 420 yards, 283 air yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, 10 sacks, and quarterback rating of 74.5. He’s much better against base, and he’s actually dominant against nickel defenses (74 of 111 for 820 yards, 329 air yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.9), so there appears to be something about that sixth defensive back, whether it’s a cornerback or a safety, that’s throwing Jackson off.

Last Sunday night in a 23-17 win, the Patriots played dime against the Ravens on 13 snaps. Jackson completed nine of 11 passes for 87 yards, one touchdown, one interception against it. As has been the case, Jackson was better when facing nickel — there, he completed all 10 of his attempts for 131 yards and a touchdown.

Now, we need to get into what Jackson is seeing, what is being schemed open for him, and how often he’s leaving stuff on the table. Let’s go to the tape.

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WATCH: Willie Snead gets 6-yard sweep TD vs. Patriots

The Baltimore Ravens were able to strike first against the New England Patriots as Willie Snead ran the ball in from six yards out

The Baltimore Ravens wanted to get off to a quick start against the New England Patriots and they did just that. After a forgettable first offensive drive, the unit responded and orchestrated a phenomenal offensive drive on their second possession.

It was a typical Ravens’ offensive drive that featured plenty of runs as well as some well worked-in passing plays by offensive coordinator Greg Roman. After Baltimore got the ball to the Patriots’ six-yard line, Roman dialed up some trickery as Lamar Jackson handed the ball to Willie Snead on a sweep, taking the ball into the end zone.

Baltimore getting off to a hot start on offense is important. As the game wears on, there is expected to be a major storm that rolls through Foxborough that could have an impact on the offensive game plan for the Ravens. Going up against Cam Newton and this still-capable New England offense, Baltimore will need every point, so getting on the board early with a well-designed play was extremely important. It’s also one of the rare moments that the Ravens’ offense looked like what we saw last year, marching down the field seemingly at will and punching the ball into the end zone instead of settling for field goals.

Defenses know what Lamar Jackson’s doing, but that’s not Lamar Jackson’s big problem

Lamar Jackson said this week that the Ravens’ offense is too predictable. He’s right, but he’s also a big part of the problem.

Last season, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson led the NFL with 39 touchdown passes, threw just six interceptions, broke Michael Vick’s single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback, and became the second player in NFL history to be unanimously named the league’s Most Valuable Player (Tom Brady, 2010). This season? Not quite the same. This season, Jackson has thrown just 12 touchdown passes to four interceptions. His Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt has dropped from 8.19 to 6.20, his DVOA as a passer has plummeted from second in the league in 2019 to 23rd in 2020, and Baltimore’s offense in general has dropped from first in the NFL in 2019 (by a crushing margin) to 23rd in 2020.

A few things are going on here. The Ravens lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Titans last season, and in that game, former Tennessee defensive coordinator Dean Pees threw late coverage switches at Jackson. The result? Jackson completed 31 of 59 passes for 365 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a lot of missed opportunities. The NFL being a copycat league as it is, teams facing the Ravens are throwing more interesting coverages at Jackson, blitzing him more, and worrying about his mobility less. The thought when dealing with Jackson seems to be that if you stack the middle of the field, deal with the edges, and make him beat you as a pure passer, you’re in pretty good shape.

That’s proven true to this point. When asked about the decrease in overall efficiency on the Rich Eisen Show this week, Jackson pointed to the idea that defenses have too easy a time figuring out what Baltimore’s offense, led by offensive coordinator Greg Roman, is doing before they even do it.

“They’re calling out our plays, stuff like that,” Jackson said. “They know what we’re doing. Sometimes stuff won’t go our way if they’re beating us to the punch.”

Eisen asked Jackson if he can hear opposing defenders calling out the Ravens’ offensive plays.

“Yeah, they definitely do,” Jackson said. “Like, ‘Run’ and stuff like that. ‘Watch out for this, watch out for that.’ Sometimes that’s what’s going on.”

So… that’s not as big a deal as you may think. It’s certainly not the main reason Baltimore’s offense isn’t doing as well as it did last season. Baltimore’s passing game wasn’t particularly complicated in 2019, nor is it in 2020. Baltimore’s run game has been and is far more complicated; working everything from pre-snap motion to the mesh point on play-action and RPO concepts has made the total run game a nightmare for defenses.

But as far as defenses having an idea what the Ravens are doing? That happens all the time — and not just to the Ravens. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky recently did a detailed breakdown of three staple concepts the Ravens used against the Steelers in Baltimore’s 24-28 Week 8 loss, in which Jackson completed just 13 of 28 passes for 208 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.

When I asked Orlovsky a couple years ago about Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford pointing out that the Jets’ defense knew what was coming, Orlovsky pointed out that this really isn’t a big deal.

“Here’s the thing: As a defense, if your coaches are doing their jobs, you should have a relatively decent idea what lays are coming out of certain formations more often than not,” Orlovsky said in September, 2018. “Especially situational stuff. Like, you should know that if a receiver cuts his splits, these four things can happen. I don’t believe there’s this “Oh, we stole signals” thing.

“Also, you can’t always trust what you see on tape. Most offensive coordinators have multiple signals for a single play. If we’re going to run a slant/flat combination, there are probably two or three different signals for that. And all you need to do is put a signal that a team thinks is one thing one time and do something else, and then, all the other signals are unreliable. If you think my signal means we’re running a go route, and we run a stop route and you’re 15 yards off… I don’t buy into it that much. Maybe a play here or there, where a [defender] goes, ‘Oh, I’ve seen that, and I’ll take a guess.’ But defensively? I don’t buy into the fact that it’s knowing signals as much as it is knowing tendencies and formations.”

Is Roman too predictable with his play designs out of specific formations? It could be argued that this is the case. Is he giving too much away with his tendencies? Perhaps. Pittsburgh defensive lineman Alex Highsmith, who had one of Jackson’s two interceptions on the day, was able to suss things out pretty quickly.

“I knew when that play started they were coming back to that because they ran the same play on the first half, and I didn’t drop deep enough,” Highsmith said. “So I learned from that play and just dropped deeper… the ball just fell into my hands.”

Roman, of course, was asked about it.

“With no fans in the stands [and no] bands or music playing, you can hear a lot right about now – some of it I can’t repeat,” Roman said Thursday. “But Lamar is one of the great competitors I know. I define him as a winner. He only wants to win every game, every play. Game [or] practice, that’s what drives him. He definitely gives me feedback on when people are calling something out and whatnot. That’s definitely part of what we talk about.

“Now, calling out plays on the defense is nothing new. I can talk about Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, every play, they’re trying to guess what play you’re going to run based on what they’re seeing – that’s the chess match. That’s kind of where it gets interesting, because if you’re not good at anything, you have no tendencies. So, you really want to work to be good at everything. If you’re in the best possible situation, you can do basic things very well and people still can’t stop you. I think that’s what you’re always striving to do, but that doesn’t always work in the NFL. That doesn’t work all the time; you have to change it up. So, we work hard at changing it up.

“We’re very aware of our tendencies. We’re aware that there are some right now, and that’s, again, like I said, where it gets interesting. When you’re good at something and you can keep pressing that button, then you have the opportunity to flip the script at some point moving forward. So, I think there’s a little bit of a chess match there with how that goes. But as far as defenders guessing what we do; they’re going to be right sometimes, [and] they’re going to be wrong sometimes. I think we know that, but it’s definitely an element of the game. It always has been, and probably always will be.”

Pay attention to what Roman is saying, yes, but pay attention also to what Roman is saying through his playbook. When you have an offensive coordinator reducing the passing game for his quarterback, that says that there is a schism between play-caller and player as to what the player is capable of. Lamar Jackson’s primary problem right not is not that opposing defenses know what his offense is about to do. Again, that happens far more than people think. Lamar Jackson’s primary problem right now is that he has not yet proven to his coaching staff that he is consistently capable of executing beyond Passing Game 101 to the point that anyone is going to open the back chapters of that playbook and show the whole thing to any opponent.

As the late, great sportswriter Ralph Wiley once said, “A man’s got to know his own limitations. If he doesn’t, his coach had better.”

That’s where the Ravens are right now.

Lamar Jackson says opponents are ‘calling out our plays’ and ‘know what we’re doing’

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson said the offense is struggling because opponents have been calling out plays before the snap

After a record-setting performance last season, the Baltimore Ravens’ offense has taken quite a big step backward in 2020. There are a multitude of reasons why Baltimore’s offense has been inconsistent this season, failing where they succeeded last year. But according to quarterback Lamar Jackson, one of the biggest problems has been opponents knowing their plays.

On the Rich Eisen Show, Jackson was asked about the offense’s woes and gave a very transparent answer. According to Jackson, defenses are calling out their plays before the snap.

“I feel, it’s a lot of with schemes — we’re going against defenses, they’re calling out our plays, stuff like that. They know what we’re doing.”

No matter how you want to look at what Jackson said, you’ll be hard pressed to find a positive there. If teams were simply guessing where the ball was going to go, Jackson confirmed they’ve been right often enough to warrant talking about it. If opponents do indeed know where the ball is going on a significant number of plays, it’s a massive indictment of offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Regardless, you better believe the rest of the teams on Baltimore’s schedule just booted up some film on the Ravens and are studying a little closer now.

Eisen asked Jackson about how the team was trying to solve this issue and Baltimore’s franchise quarterback pointed to halftime adjustments. That’s a fairly telling answer considering the Ravens’ offense was dreadful in the first half of last week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts, gaining just 55 total yards through two quarters. However, Baltimore came out after halftime with an up-tempo attack that was able to consistently drive down the field and scored 17 of the team’s 24 total points in the second half of the game.

Roman was lauded last season for his work integrating Jackson’s skill set into the offensive playbook and find success with a different style of attack. The Ravens set several franchise records as well as a few NFL records last season as a result of that unique offense. Unfortunately, the offensive success hasn’t carried over to this season, seeing Jackson and the passing offense rank 31st in yards while the rushing attack has been hot-and-cold as well.

If Baltimore can truly be Super Bowl contenders this season, the offense is going to have to change things up and find a way to be more consistent. Based on what Jackson said to Eisen, they might need to completely revamp the playbook or find some new pages in it.

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Ravens vs. Colts final score recap: Baltimore shows sandpaper levels of grit

Here’s everything you need to know about the Ravens vs. Colts final score — from the stars of the game to the biggest post-game quote.

The Baltimore Ravens were 40-grit sandpaper tonight. For the first time this season, the Ravens took a punch square to the jaw and answered back with their own jabs and haymakers. In the end, Baltimore beat the Indianapolis Colts, 24-10, to head to 6-2 on the 2020 season. As the Ravens lick their newest wounds and look to the future, they deserve to bask in the glory for just a little bit before getting back to work.

While not the prettiest win this season, Baltimore did exactly what everyone should have been looking for following the team’s early exit from the playoffs last season. They took the best Indianapolis had in the first half, didn’t get down on themselves or blow up their gameplan, but responded in the second half with the type of team effort everyone expected to see this season. It’d still be nice to see that type of play for a full 60 minutes but it shows that the Ravens are still very much growing into the team they’re going to be, both later this season and in the future.

To help break down all the important bits from Sunday’s win, let’s dive into our Ravens vs. Colts final score recap.

When it mattered most, Ravens abandoned their successful running backs

Despite the Baltimore Ravens’ running backs having a great day, OC Greg Roman screwed up the most important play of the game

It’s 4th-and-3 at the Pittsburgh Steelers’ eight-yard line with two minutes remaining and the Baltimore Ravens down four points, making it touchdown-or-bust territory. Baltimore’s running backs were averaging 6.45 yards-per-carry on the day, so of course, they lined up in a jumbo package and let their young ball carriers feast, right?

Nope.

The Ravens lined up in a spread formation with Jackson as the only player in the backfield. He took the quarterback keeper two yards and fumbled, turning the ball over and all but killing the Ravens’ chances of winning the game.

If you’ve watched Baltimore play at all over the last two seasons, you’ll be all too familiar with this decision. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has often abandoned the run at the worst possible times. Whether it be early in a game when an opposing offense is capable of putting up big points (even with the score close), or in game-critical moments like this, Roman has left his running backs as little more than spectators.

While Jackson deserves the burden of this loss as a whole, Roman earned a heavy dose of criticism himself. With the game on the line, Roman took out his most effective players on the day to give it to a guy who had three fumbles, two interceptions, and at least one near-interception on what was absolutely the worst game of his professional career.

I could better understand any argument to give it to Jackson if Baltimore’s running backs had been boom-or-bust throughout the game. However, of the 31 rushing attempts Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins had on the day, a grand total of seven were for fewer than three yards, including a one-yard touchdown run. If we take out Edwards’ one-yard touchdown, 80% of the Ravens’ runs by running backs in Week 8 would have picked up that first down. Compare that to Jackson’s five designed runs (not counting sacks or this specific run) that went for fewer than three yards (66.66% success rate) and even the analytics make it sound like a poor decision.

Jackson can and undoubtedly will bounce back but he unquestionably had a terrible game in every single regard possible. If you’re Greg Roman, why give it to a guy who had struggled through the air, on the ground, and with turnovers? Going even further, why completely take the option off the table to even make the defense believe it was going to a running back by lining up in a spread set? It’ll be on Ravens’ fans minds until Baltimore either starts winning games against quality opponents, changes that philosophy, or someone answers the question earnestly. But frustrations are quickly mounting against an offense that just can’t get out of its own way this season.

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Lamar Jackson needs to play better or Ravens will start losing games

With inconsistent play and well-known tendencies, QB Lamar Jackson either needs to step up or the Baltimore Ravens will start losing games

Though the Baltimore Ravens picked up another win, beating the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, the offense was far from the unit we all saw last season. After a 2019 campaign that broke records and earned quarterback Lamar Jackson an MVP award, Baltimore’s offense has been far more inconsistent in the early part of the 2020 NFL season.

One of the reasons might just be who Jackson turns to first when throwing the football. Astute fans might recognize that wide receiver Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews lead the way in all receiving categories for the Ravens, and by a pretty wide margin. Brown leads everyone on Baltimore’s roster in targets (36), receptions (22), and receiving yards (319) while Andrews tops the charts with five touchdown catches, coming in at a close second in every other receiving category.

Unfortunately, Ravens fans aren’t the only people taking notice of where the ball is going. Following the game, Bengals safety Jessie Bates III and linebacker Logan Wilson both noted it’s the Brown and Andrews show through the air. Though both admitted Cincinnati’s defense didn’t do enough to completely shut both passing targets down, Wilson pointed to a far different second half for Jackson when they were able to slow Andrews and Brown down.

“It’s just as simple as not letting him get the ball,” Bates said about Andrews after Sunday’s game. “We know where Lamar wants to go: either ’15’ [Marquise Brown] or ’89’ [Mark Andrews]. It showed up today as well. That’s all he was really throwing to, was ’15’ or ’89.'”

“He’s Lamar’s go-to target,” Wilson said when asked about shutting Andrews down in the second half. “I think everyone knows that, especially in the red zone. So, we needed to adjust to that, knowing where he’s going to be, Lamar is going to be looking for him. Like I said, I think we adjusted to that in the second half.”

Both Bengals defenders have a solid point and the evidence backs them up. Jackson went 8-of-13 for 76 yards, and two touchdowns in the first quarter (one play into the second quarter really). But things slowed down quickly for Baltimore’s passing attack once Cincinnati was better able to lock up Andrews and Brown beyond that.

After going 6-of-9 for 56 yards and a touchdown in the first half, Andrews didn’t receive a single target in the second half. Brown caught 5-of-7 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in the first half. But things dramatically switched up in the second half where Brown was targeted just three times, catching two passes for 35 yards, including one catch-and-run that went for 30 of those yards. Meanwhile, after going 16-of-28 for 137 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in the first half, Jackson went 3-of-9 for 43 yards in the second half.

On the day, Jackson completed just 19 of his 37 targets (51.4%) for 180 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. While those stats might not seem awful, Jackson’s 4.86 yards-per-attempt for the game is the third-lowest of his 27 career starts. And anyone watching Sunday’s game likely noticed the Bengals could have easily come down with another two or three interceptions if defenders could catch a ball thrown right into their chest.

It’s not as simple as Jackson just pinpointing two receivers, however. Something many young quarterbacks struggle with at the beginning of their careers is throwing outside the numbers. Outside passes have to have a lot more touch, the timing is even more important, and it’s typically where the best defensive backs are going to be.

Bates was on top of that tendency as well. When asked how Cincinnati’s defense tried to force Jackson to throw outside the numbers, Bates said the gameplan was to load up the middle of the field “where all their completions come from.” Taking a quick look at Jackson’s passing chart for the game only proves Bates’ point, with every deep shot and a majority of the outside throws falling to the turf.

Courtesy of NextGenStats

If you’re an opposing defensive coordinator, it seems as though Bates and Wilson just drew up your gameplan against Baltimore until Jackson steps up his game and can beat it.

It might not be fair to put all the blame on Jackson here. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman is also partly responsible, as are the other receiving targets who have struggled to get open, and the rushing attack that has been just average this season. It’s also worth noting that with a condensed offseason and no preseason games due to the coronavirus pandemic, Jackson and this offense are still clearly working on things like timing and chemistry.

But at the same time, Jackson is the Ravens’ franchise quarterback and is fresh off an MVP season. We all know he can play better football than this but it’s up to him to actually do it. In Week 5, Jackson missed a few wide-open receivers, instead, trying to target his favorites or looking for a deep ball that wasn’t within a country mile of his intended target. Whether it’s a knee injury that is hampering him more than anyone is letting on, or a desire to try and prove his toughest critics wrong, Jackson isn’t playing smart or consistent football right now.

The Ravens got lucky the last two weeks and they’ll face another relatively easy opponent in Week 6 in the 1-3-1 Philadelphia Eagles. But with a schedule that quickly gets tougher following that, Jackson has very few weeks to either improve as a passer or get smarter about where he’s throwing the ball, or Baltimore could start chalking up losses.

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How much motion did the Panthers use Week 1?

So, how much did Brady try it in his first game in the NFL?

One reason we were excited about the Panthers hiring Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator was the hope that he would embrace analytics and new ideas in his playcalling like utilizing more motion. Last year, the offensive playcallers for the Ravens, 49ers and Chiefs all had tremendous success using more motion compared to their opponents. Other teams seem to be joining the trend based on the early numbers for the 2020 season.

So, how much did Brady try it in his first game in the NFL? According to Seth Walder at ESPN, not a whole lot. Here’s a look at his motion stats across the league from Week 1.

It’s only one game, so we can’t look too much into that percentage. Hopefully we see that number tick up as the season develops, though.

Brady has several very interesting offensive weapons and if he’s not consistely putting them in motion then he’s leaving points on the field. Receiver Curtis Samuel in particular is a player who will put stress on defenders when he’s on the move.

In any case, Brady’s offense looks and feels relatively modern and will get a lot of people involved.

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Emotions in Motion: Why almost everything in the NFL happens before the snap

More and more, NFL offenses are using pre-snap motion to set defenses on edge. Here’s how it works.

In Part 1 of the “Emotions in Motion” series, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar takes an in-depth look at the NFL’s increasing use of pre-snap motion, and how it’s changing the ways in which offensive and defensive football are played. 

One of the biggest plays in the 49ers’ 26-21 Week 17 win over the Seahawks last season was a 49-yard pass from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to fullback Kyle Juszczyk. On the play, tight end George Kittle motioned from left to right pre-snap, which gave Garoppolo the indicator that Seattle was playing zone defense in its usual base (three-linebacker) alignment. Juszczyk was aligned in the right slot — fullback displacement has been a hallmark of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s playbooks for years — and as the ball was snapped and Kittle moved back to the left side for a backside blocking assignment.

Garoppolo was able to spot a weakness in Seattle’s defense that he could exploit — Juszczyk covered by linebacker Mychal Kendricks, who was preoccupied to a point by Kittle’s presence aligned to the right side of the formation. Because of that preoccupation, Juszczyk had a free release to head upfield, and though he certainly wasn’t going to challenge Tyreek Hill in any footraces, he was able to run free against a defense that had been forced to react late as a result of Shanahan’s ability to design and implement motion and displacement concepts to the detriment of every defense he faces. Kendricks followed Juszczyk outside, but it looks as if the intention was for Kendricks to cover the flat, while the 49ers extended Juszczyk downfield. Kittle motioning back to the left side also took linebacker Bobby Wagner out of the picture — as a hook/curl defender, he had nothing to defend. Whenever you can remove your opponent’s best defensive player from the equation, you have an obvious advantage.

“I would say that Kyle’s the best at that right now,” former NFL quarterback and current ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky recently told me. “Kyle takes people out of the play without doing anything other than motion and alignment. I’ve said this – Kyle’s the best mathematician in the NFL.”

Of course, the 49ers took Shanahan’s brilliant offense and Robert Saleh’s radically re-energized defense all the way to Super Bowl LIV, where they lost in late-game fashion to Andy Reid’s Chiefs on this particular play.

Not that any of this is new. Pre-snap motion has been around for decades — Tom Landry did as much as anyone to develop it with the Cowboys in the 1960s and 1970s, and Bill Walsh was not above availing himself of the concept with the 49ers back in the day. In a

If you want to see another play in which the quarterback heads right as the guards head left, leaving an open target against a confused defense, this is a good example (Thanks to John Tunney of the excellent Pro Football Journal blog for the highlight pull).

In an NFL where defensive front versatility is the order of the day and coverage schemes are more advanced than they’ve ever been, it behooves those who design offenses to bring to the table anything possible to plant their flags in the turf. Pre-snap motion, which is used to varying degrees throughout the league to varying degrees of effectiveness, has become a mandatory construct among many of the most effective offenses.

But none of the public subscription-based football metrics services — not Football Outsiders, not Pro Football Focus, and not Sports Info Solutions — make pre-snap motion charting-based stats available, and therefore, we as football fans and and football analysts have no way of knowing the exact effectiveness of the methodology. The first real reference I saw to pre-snap motion in an analytical sense was in Warren Sharp’s 2020 Football Preview, and Sharp laid it all out in compelling fashion.

Per Sharp’s charting, NFL teams used pre-snap motion in the first three quarters of games on 39% of passes, 49% of rushes, and 43% of all plays in the 2019 season. The 49ers led the league with pre-snap motion on 66% of their passes, followed by the Patriots (65%), the Titans (63%), the Ravens (57%), and the Chiefs (53%). Two of those teams made the Super Bowl, the Ravens were the AFC’s number-one seed, the Titans made it to the AFC Championship game, and the Patriots ranked 11th in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA metrics despite a receiver group that couldn’t bust a grape.

However, they used pre-snap motion at below average rates, yet saw much more improvement when passing with pre-snap motion. Look at the comparison vs the league average with the advantage gained by using pre-snap motion prior to passes.

Per Sharp’s metrics, teams had 0.2 more yards per attempt, a 3% success rate increase, and 0.02 more EPA per attempt. The Vikings, who used the 20th-most pre-snap motion on passing plays last season, saw a bump of 1.6 in yards per attempt, a 6% success rate bump, and an increase in EPA per attempt of 0.25. The Buccaneers, who could have desperately used anything to make Jameis Winston more efficient in 2019, used pre-snap motion on just 37% of their plays, one of the lowest rates in the league. The league average was 40%.

With Tom Brady now on board in Bruce Arians’ offense, expect a big uptick. Brade has utilized pre-snap motion for years to help discern coverage concepts, to isolate and remove specific defenders, and to give his receivers an advantage that their physical gifts don’t always present. One the Bucs have a new sense of pre-snap trickeration and Brady has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to… well, things could get interesting.

When talking about the specific schematic advantages of pre-snap motion, most people will point to the ability of the quarterback to read man versus zone coverage based on the motion defender. If the defender follows the motion receiver through the formation, it’s generally man. If the defender stays put and hands the responsibility through the formation, it’s generally zone.

But defenses are starting to show dummy man/zone looks, and as Orlovsky told me, that’s not the ultimate advantage for quarterbacks — or, for that matter, anybody on the offensive side of the ball.

“Yeah, I think we’re all past man vs. zone,” he told me. “We’re kind of beyond that. The big thing was creating leverage on certain players. That’s a big deal. You could get certain guys – when you line up in your formation, and you’re moving your personnel, you can get certain [defenders] to move where you want them. When you use motion, and you kind of know how your opponent will respond, you will call certain plays to be run at certain guys.

“We’re seeing more coaches understand that… motion doesn’t have to be married to man/zone. It could be to try and get your run game to be run at certain people. Or, to try and get your passing game directed at certain people, whether it’s man or zone. Because if that nickel defender doesn’t kick over to trips, you can have your slot receiver working on a safety. So now, just off motion, even if it’s against a zone defense, you have really created an advantage. That safety really wants to play the run more than he wants to play the pass. So, it’s really about trying to create advantages, whether it’s via leverage, or via fits in the run game. I think we’ve seen great growth on that in the NFL.”

Pre-snap motion also creates specific advanatges in the run game — it’s a big reason the Ravens had the NFL’s most schematically evil rushing attack in the NFL last season.

Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman has been brilliant at cooking up different kinds of motion concepts, which is the next level of this — when offensive minds continue to realize that it’s the complexity of motion that really puts defenses on a string — as the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs already have — the advantages grow in an exponential sense.

“I don’t necessarily care if an offense motions,” Orlovsky said, putting his defensive coordinator hat on. “But when they have different motions, that’s when I’ve got a problem. [Remember when] Chip Kelly was the greatest thing in the world because he played with tempo? Well, defenses caught up and started playing with tempo. Then, the great coaches, Sean McVay being one of them, they’ve got all different kinds of tempo. They’ve got stupid-fast tempo, then the fast tempo, then the ‘okay no-huddle’ tempo, then the slow tempo. That’s what screws with defenses. Because then, you don’t know. You’ve got to be ready all the time. That’s when you’re on your heels, and you’re guessing rather than dictating. Those offenses that are constantly changing the way they’re doing the motion – for defenses, you can no longer feel confident in what you’re doing. You are always going to be a step slow.”

In part 2 of the “Emotions in Motion” series, we’ll get into more specific examples of run and pass motion concepts that have taken over the NFL. In Part 3, we’ll talk about what defenses need to do to put a cap on these particular innovations.