The 2020 portion of the 2019-20 PGA Tour schedule kicks off this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. A field of thirty-four features five of the top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking.
The key stats best suited to the 7,518-yard, par-73 venue are:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Bogey Avoidance
- Sand Saves Gained
- Good Drives Gained
- Proximity 175-200 Yards
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds played on courses with Bermuda greens.
Sentry Tournament of Champions – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
Cantlay is the fourth-best golfer in attendance by the OWGR measure. His only 2019 win came at the Memorial Tournament, but he preceded it by back-to-back T-3 results and followed it up late in the year with runner-up finishes at the BMW Championship and Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He has the most appealing odds of the top golfers in the elite field with a $10 bet returning a profit of $140.
Collin Morikawa (+2200)
Morikawa offers a better return than Cantlay. A rookie in 2019, his first career win came at the Barracuda Championship. He enters the week ranked 65th by the OWGR and most recently finished T-5 at the Japan Tour’s Dunlop Phoenix. He has a great approach game and excels from our key proximity distance this week.
Sentry Tournament of Champions – Tier 2
Corey Conners (+2800)
Conners won’t get the full advantage of his driver this week at a venue with wide, rolling fairways allowing all in attendance to bomb it off the tee, but he will get something of a reprieve from his usual struggles on the greens. Each of the last five TOC champions finished at or below 21-under par, and Conners certainly has the ability to go that low.
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Matt Kuchar (+2800)
Much of Kuchar’s career success has come early in the calendar year. The 24th-ranked golfer in the world won twice last season, at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and the Sony Open in Hawaii. He was also the runner-up at both the RBC Heritage and WGC-Match Play. He ranks second to Conners by my stat model.
Sentry Tournament of Champions – Longshots
Joaquin Niemann (+3000)
Niemann is coming off a Presidents Cup loss as a member of the International team. He gained entry to this event with his first career victory at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier to kick off the 2019-20 PGA Tour campaign, and has been one of the most active golfers early in the season. His strong approach game gives him an advantage on the expansive greens.
Keith Mitchell (+4000)
Mitchell is our longest dart throw at a tournament without a lot of betting value due to the small field of elites. He also earned his first career victory in 2019 at The Honda Classic in early March. He held off World No. 1 Brooks Koepka on Sunday, and showed he can compete in strong fields.
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