The San Francisco Giants (54-55) continue their 3-game series with the San Diego Padres (61-51) Tuesday at Petco Park. First pitch in Game 2 is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco shut out San Diego 1-0 in Monday’s series opener as the Giants’ pitching staff was dominant. The Padres had just 1 runner in scoring position and only left 4 runners on base.
Season series: San Diego leads 6-5, but San Francisco has scored 10 more runs (46-36)
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Giants at Padres projected starters
RHP Alex Cobb vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Cobb is 3-6 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 88 1/3 IP across 17 starts.
- Last start: Lost 3-0 Wednesday at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K
- 2022 vs. the Padres: 1 start, a 13-2 home win April 12 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 10 K
Musgrove is 8-5 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 120 IP over 19 starts.
- Last start: Lost 7-3 at home Thuraday vs. the Colorado Rockies with 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K
- 2022 vs. the Giants: 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA (14 IP), 5 H, 7 BB and 10 K in 2 starts
Giants at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 4, Padres 3
Money line
PASS.
Musgrove has shut down San Francisco’s lineup this season and the Giants are 32-37 vs. right-handed starters.
But the Padres (-180) are out of my price range because San Diego actually has a minus-7.3% return on investment (ROI) as home favorites in 2022.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET a HALF-UNIT on the GIANTS +1.5 (-155) because the Padres -1.5 (+125) have the 4th-worst RL ROI as home favorites in MLB at minus-31.6%. In fact, a $100 bettor would be down $1,587 if they bet San Diego’s RL as home favorites this year.
Also, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market. A slight majority of the cash is on the Giants but more than 80% of the bets are on the Padres, per Pregame.com. It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since sharps wager a lot more dough than public bettors.
Over/Under
BET a HALF-UNIT on the UNDER 7.5 (-125) since Musgrove deals vs. San Francisco, the Giants are 10-13-1 O/U as road underdogs and Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball according to park factor.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125) since I’m going to take a shot on San Francisco’s RL and this is a sharp total without much value on either side.
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