UFC on ESPN 16 predictions: Holly Holm is the favorite – but do we like Irene Aldana?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC on ESPN 16 main card on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi.

Holm
vs.
Aldana
De Castro
vs.
Felipe
De Randamie
vs.
Pena
Todorovic
vs.
Townsend
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2020: 106-68
holm2020
Holm
(56%)
decastro2020
De Castro
(73%)
derandamie2020
De Randamie
(58%)
todorovic2020
Todorovic
(75%)
Nolan King
@mma_kings
2020: 117-57
aldana2020
Aldana
carlos2020
Felipe
pena2020
Pena
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2020: 116-58
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
pena2020
Pena
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2020: 116-58
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2020: 114-60
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Simon Head
@simonhead
2020: 113-61
trophy copy 2019 Champion*
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
pena2020
Pena
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Dave Doyle
@davedoylemma
2020: 113-61
holm2020
Holm
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2020: 113-61
trophy copy 2017 Champion
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2020: 110-64
trophy copy 2014 Champion
holm2020
Holm
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2020: 109-65
aldana2020
Aldana
carlos2020
Felipe
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2020: 107-67
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
pena2020
Pena
todorovic2020
Todorovic
John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2020: 106-68
aldana2020
Aldana
decastro2020
De Castro
pena2020
Pena
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2020: 105-69
trophy copy 2018 Champion
holm2020
Holm
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2020: 103-71
holm2020
Holm
decastro2020
De Castro
derandamie2020
De Randamie
todorovic2020
Todorovic
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2020: 73-101
aldana2020
Aldana
carlos2020
Felipe
derandamie2020
De Randamie
townsend2020
Townsend

(Note: The fight between Cameron Else and Kyler Phillips was added to the main card too late for our picks deadline.)

The UFC has its second of five straight “Fight Island” shows Saturday, and a former champion is atop the card.

UFC on ESPN 16 takes place Saturday at Flash Forum at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, former women’s bantamweight champion [autotag]Holly Holm[/autotag] (13-5 MMA, 6-5 UFC) takes on [autotag]Irene Aldana[/autotag] (12-5 MMA, 5-3 UFC). Holm is just a slight favorite in the fight at -125, but our 14 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts are siding with Aldana at a 10-4 clip.

In the co-feature, [autotag]Yorgan De Castro[/autotag] (6-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) meets [autotag]Carlos Felipe[/autotag] (8-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) in a heavyweight bout. De Castro is a heavy favorite, and he’s got a big 11-3 picks lead.

Also on the main card, former women’s featherweight champ [autotag]Germaine de Randamie[/autotag] (9-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) takes on [autotag]Julianna Pena[/autotag] (9-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC). Pena is a slight favorite, but it’s de Randamie with a fairly sizable 9-5 picks lead.

And [autotag]Dusko Todorovic[/autotag] (9-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is the main card’s heaviest favorite in his middleweight bout against [autotag]Dequan Townsend[/autotag] (21-11 MMA, 0-3 UFC). Only one of our pickers is going with Townsend in an upset.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Holm (56 percent), De Castro (73 percent), de Randamie (58 percent) and Todorovic (75 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

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Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana prediction | UFC on ESPN 16 breakdown

Check out the MMA Junkie’s Dan Tom’s analysis and predictions for the UFC on ESPN 16 main event between Holly Holm and Irene Aldana.

Check out the MMA Junkie’s Dan Tom’s analysis and predictions for the UFC on ESPN 16 main event between Holly Holm and Irene Aldana.

John Morgan previews UFC on ESPN 16: Holm vs. Aldana

MMA Junkie’s John Morgan checks in from “UFC Fight Island” as he tees up the weekend’s fights to follow at UFC on ESPN 16 in Abu Dhabi.

MMA Junkie’s John Morgan checks in from “UFC Fight Island” as he tees up the weekend’s fights to follow at UFC on ESPN 16 in Abu Dhabi.

Germaine de Randamie: Amanda Nunes was ‘exposed’ in our ‘boring’ title fight

Germaine de Randamie still believes 10 months later that Amanda Nunes took the easy way out of their title fight at UFC 245.

ABU DHABI – [autotag]Germaine de Randamie[/autotag] says lessons were learned in her title fight loss to [autotag]Amanda Nunes[/autotag] at UFC 245 this past December, but she doesn’t look back fondly at the bout.

De Randamie (9-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC), a former UFC women’s featherweight champion, had the chance to win a belt in another division when she challenged Nunes (20-4 MMA, 13-1 UFC) for the women’s bantamweight strap. She lost a lopsided unanimous decision when “The Lioness” used grappling to wear down the former kickboxing champion over five rounds.

Victory wasn’t far from de Randamie’s grasp on that night, she said, and though she credits Nunes for the win, she said it wasn’t a performance that made her feel like a significantly inferior fighter and thinks she showed chinks in the champion’s armor.

“The biggest lesson I learned to myself is I have to stick to a game plan,” de Randamie told reporters, including MMA Junkie, on Wednesday at UFC on ESPN 16 media day. “I came in that night to fight and she came in not to lose. I believe I honestly made it easy on her, but I exposed her at the same time, and she exposed that I should not be that kickboxer anymore and I should be that MMA fighter. I learned my lessons, but I’m motivated, I’m here and we’ll see.

“I was never in any danger. I had no damage at all, even after the fight. I clipped her in the second round and I was like, ‘I only have to hit her one more time and I’ll knock her out.’ I was too hungry, I stood straight up just like I did in my kickboxing days. I did exactly what she wanted me to do and she laid on top of me and made it a very boring fight. But she got the job done.”

De Randamie has had plenty of time to reflect upon the loss to Nunes. She returns to the octagon for a women’s bantamweight bout with Julianna Pena (9-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC) at UFC on ESPN 16, which takes place Saturday at Flash Forum at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN+.

It’s a big fight for the weight class, and though Pena has been relatively inactive in recent years, de Randamie said she knows there’s a lot at stake.

“I’m always excited,” de Randamie said. “I just want to fight. It doesn’t matter. A fight stays the same. If someone has a two-year layoff of one-year layoff, it doesn’t matter. I expect the best Julianna Pena to show up. I know she has something to prove and wants that title shot, so I’m the one to beat.”

As far as how the fight will play out, de Randamie thinks her opponent with come with the same game plan as everyone, and that’s to take her off her feet. The former kickboxer says she’s “not done,” and would be open to push for another title fight in the future.

First she has to get through Pena, though, and knows it won’t be easy.

“It doesn’t matter who I face – I’ve fought the best and they will all shoot on me,” de Randamie said. “Every fight is the same. Every if I fight a stand-up fighter. Even Holly (Holm) tried to shoot on me, Amanda tried to shoot on me – they all shoot on me. I fight every time the same fight.”

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Germaine de Randamie vs. Julianna Pena in the works for UFC’s Oct. 3 event

A crucial women’s bantamweight fight between Germaine de Randamie and Julianna Pena is expected to go down in October.

A crucial women’s bantamweight fight between [autotag]Germaine de Randamie[/autotag] and [autotag]Julianna Pena[/autotag] is expected to go down in October.

Former UFC champ de Randamie (9-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) will return to the octagon for the first time since failing to join the two-division champ club against Amanda Nunes in her previous fight when she meets fellow contender Pena (9-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC) on Oct. 3.

MMA Junkie confirmed with multiple people with knowledge of the situation that both fighters have agreed to the bout. The people requested anonymity because UFC has yet to make an official announcement.

UFC has not officially announced its Oct. 3 event, but multiple fights have already been reported. It does not currently have a reported location, but could likely land in either Las Vegas or Abu Dhabi.

De Randamie, who was the UFC’s inaugural women’s featherweight champion, came short of history at UFC 245 in December when she suffered a unanimous decision loss to Nunes in a women’s bantamweight tile fight. Prior to that, “The Iron Lady” had put together five consecutive wins, including a 16-second TKO of surging contender Aspen Ladd.

Pena, meanwhile, will be fighting for just the second time since she took a hiatus from MMA to become a mother in January 2017. She made her return to the octagon in July 2019 with a win over Nicco Montano, but hasn’t seen action since. With just one loss in her UFC run, Pena could make a case for a title fight with back-to-back wins over former champs Montano and de Randamie.

The latest lineup for the UFC’s Oct. 3 event includes:

  • Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jinh Yu Frey
  • Germaine de Randamie vs. Julianna Pena

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All-time UFC women’s champions, ranked

A definitive ranking of the UFC women’s champions since 2012.

Since UFC president Dana White introduced women to the promotion in Novermber 2012, there have been some dominant champions and stars.

Ronda Rousey rose to superstardom, helping open the door for many aspiring female fighters and the possibilities that come with it. In addition to bantamweight, the UFC later created three more weight classes, including two by using “The Ultimate Fighter” to crown inaugural strawweight and flyweight champions.

With 14 UFC women’s champions through March 2020, below is a ranking of their status.

Without further ado …

****

14. Germaine de Randamie (0 title defenses as featherweight champion)

[autotag]Germaine de Randamie[/autotag] won the inaugural UFC featherweight title in a hard-fought battle against Holly Holm at UFC 208, but her reign did not last long.

The Dutch kickboxer was meant to make her first title defense against Cris Cyborg, but she was unwilling to fight Cyborg because of her history with performance enhancing drugs. When the matchup never materialized, the UFC stripped de Randamie of her belt. She proceeded to move back down bantamweight

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100 of the most fascinating UFC facts from the past decade

Some of the most significant in-fight moments and records in UFC history have occurred and been etched in stone over the past decade.

The past decade of UFC action has seen a lot unfold, and it is arguably the most important in the organization’s history from in terms of evolution.

Only within this era have statistics truly come to the forefront. After so many years of fights, the groundwork for what’s viewed as meaningful and the history attached has finally been laid out. The athletes and techniques have evolved, too, meaning new methods of causing damage and finishing fights are attempted and pulled off with a higher rate of frequency.

That evolution is apparent in the history books, because some of the most significant moments and records in UFC history have occurred over this past decade.

Let’s dig into the archives.

****

EVENT FEATS

Sajik Arena in South Korea

The UFC held 363 events in 159 difference venues across 26 countries over the past decade.

“UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya” in October 2019 had the highest announced attendance in company history at 57,127.

“UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor” in November 2016 sold a largest live gate in company history at $17.7 million.

“UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura” in November 2017 had the most total fight time of any event in company history at 3 hours, 4 minutes and 18 seconds.

“UFC Fight Night 55:: Rockhold vs. Bisping” in November 2014 had the least total fight time of those events at 1 hour, 3 minutes and 51 seconds.

The UFC canceled four events over the decade: UFC 151 in September 2012; UFC 176 in August 2014; UFC Fight Night 97 in October 2016 and UFC 233 in January 2019.

Michael Bisping def. Luke Rockhold at UFC 199

“UFC Fight Night 55: Rockhold vs. Bisping” and “UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington” in May 2018 each featured 11 stoppage results, the most for any card in company history.

“UFC on FOX 7: Henderson vs. Melendez” in April 2013, “UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs. Miller” in July 2014, “UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2,” in June 2016 and “UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2” in December 2017 each featured eight knockout results, the most of the decade.

“UFC on FUEL TV 10: Werdum vs. Nogueira” in June 2013 featured eight submission results, the most for any card in company history.

Seven events each featured 10 decision results, the most for any card in company history.

“UFC Fight Night 134: Shogun vs. Smith” in July 2018 and “UFC on ESPN 4: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards” each featured nine consecutive decision results, the longest streak on a card in company history.

“UFC Fight Night 79: Henderson vs. Masvidal” in November 2015 and “UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya” in March 2018 each featured five split-decision results, the most for any card in company history.

Henry Cejudo def. Marlon Moraes at UFC 238

“UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes” in June 2019 featured a total of 1,818 significant strikes landed, a single-event record for the company.

“UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta” in April 2018 featured seven fighters who landed 100 or more significant strikes, a single-event record for the company.

“UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2” in June 2016 featured 15 knockdowns, a single-event record for the company.

“UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor” in July 2015 was the only event in company history to feature two knockouts stemming from flying knee strikes.

“UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till” in September 2018 was the only event in company history to feature two kneebar submission results.

“UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre” in November 2017 marked the only event in history to feature three title changes.

Next page: General feats

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UFC 245 salaries: Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington top list of disclosed paydays

A total of 12 fighters made north of six figures Saturday at UFC 245, and that number increases when post-fight bonuses are factored in.

Main event combatants [autotag]Kamaru Usman[/autotag] and [autotag]Colby Covington[/autotag] each pocketed $500,000 for their respective efforts at UFC 245.

MMA Junkie recently obtained the list of the disclosed paydays for Saturday night’s card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas from the Nevada Athletic Commission, which oversaw the event.

UFC featherweight champion [autotag]Alexander Volkanovksi[/autotag], who won the belt in the evening’s co-main event, earned $250,000 for his performance. Former champion [autotag]Max Holloway[/autotag], who lost the belt, took home a $350,000.

UFC women’s double champion [autotag]Amanda Nunes[/autotag] pocketed $450,000 for her bantamweight title defense against [autotag]Germaine de Randamie[/autotag]. Dutch challenger de Randamie earned $100,000.

[lawrence-related id=472020,471870,471670]

Former UFC featherweight champion [autotag]Jose Aldo[/autotag] was the fourth highest-paid athlete on the card. Despite losing to [autotag]Marlon Moraes[/autotag] in his drop to bantamweight, Aldo earned $400,000.

The total disclosed payroll for the event was $4,096,000.

The full list of disclosed UFC 245 paydays included:

  • Kamaru Usman: $500,000 (no win bonus)
    def. Colby Covington: $500,000
  • Alexander Volkanovski: $250,000 (no win bonus)
    def. Max Holloway: $350,000
  • Amanda Nunes: $450,000 (includes $100,000 win bonus)
    def. Germaine de Randamie: $100,000
  • Marlon Moraes: $220,000 (includes $110,000 win bonus)
    def. Jose Aldo: $400,000
  • [autotag]Petr Yan[/autotag]: $122,000 (includes $66,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Urijah Faber[/autotag]: $250,0000
  • [autotag]Geoff Neal[/autotag]: $62,000 (includes $31,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Mike Perry[/autotag]: $90,000
  • [autotag]Irene Aldana[/autotag]: $80,000 (includes $40,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Ketlen Vieira[/autotag]: $33,000
  • [autotag]Omari Akhmedov[/autotag]: $110,000 (includes $28,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Ian Heinisch[/autotag]: $50,000
  • [autotag]Matt Brown[/autotag]: $160,000 (includes $80,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Ben Saunders[/autotag]: $35,000
  • [autotag]Chase Hooper[/autotag]: $48,000 (includes $24,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Daniel Teymur[/autotag]: $18,000
  • [autotag]Brandon Moreno[/autotag]: $62,000 (includes $31,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Kai Kara-France[/autotag]: $25,000
  • [autotag]Jessica Eye[/autotag]: $96,000 (includes $48,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Viviane Araujo[/autotag]: $45,000
  • [autotag]Puna Soriano[/autotag]: $20,000 (includes $10,000 win bonus) def. [autotag]Oskar Piechota[/autotag]: $20,000

The figures do not include deductions for items such as insurance, licenses and taxes. Additionally, the figures do not include money paid by sponsors, including the official UFC 245 Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay. They also do not include any other “locker room” or special discretionary bonuses the UFC sometimes pays. They also do not include pay-per-view cuts that some top-level fighters receive.

For example, UFC officials handed out additional $50,000 UFC 245 fight-night bonuses to Yan and Aldana for “Performance of the Night,” and Usman and Covington for “Fight of the Night.”

In other words, the above figures are simply base salaries reported to the commission and do not reflect entire compensation packages for the event.

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