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The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (10-2, 6-2 SEC) take on the No. 2 Texas Longhorns (11-1, 7-1) in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Georgia vs. Texas odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bulldogs had their eyes opened and fortitude tested as they needed 8 overtimes to take down Georgia Tech 44-42 Nov. 29. The Dogs failed to cover as 17-point favorites to cap off a 3-9 season against the spread (ATS). Georgia went 6-2 in SEC play, losing at the Ole Miss Rebels 28-12 and at the Alabama Crimson Tide 41-34.
The Longhorns finished up with an impressive 17-7 win over Texas A&M Nov. 30, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Texas went 7-5 ATS during the regular season and 7-1 in the conference. The Longhorns’ only loss was to these Bulldogs, at home, in a 30-15 setback Oct. 19 as 4-point favorites.
Georgia QB Carson Beck threw 3 INTs, but RB Trevor Etienne ran in 3 TDs. Texas didn’t score a point until the second half and were down 23-0 at the break. QB Quinn Ewers was 25-for-43 for 211 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He lost 2 fumbles, though.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Georgia vs. Texas odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 5:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Georgia +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Texas -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Georgia +3 (-115) | Texas -3 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Georgia vs. Texas picks and predictions
Prediction
Georgia 24, Texas 21
Moneyline
Etienne is listed as questionable with a rib injury, and he has missed 3 straight games. He has been limited in practice this week, but this feels like a situation that he was held out in order to be ready for this one. If the Longhorns lose this game, they can probably still get in the college playoff. However, it’s probably lights out for the Bulldogs if they don’t win.
With this game being in Atlanta, that motivation for the Bulldogs, and the previous win by them, I like Georgia here. Texas has a little bit of a quarterback controversy with Arch Manning mixing in the offense, and Ewers averaged just 195 yards passing the last 3 games.
Take GEORGIA +125.
Against the spread
Since we’re going with the value at the ML, forget the spread. Instead, take QUINN EWERS UNDER 233.5 YARDS PASSING (-115). He has not eclipsed this moderate number in 6 of his last 8 games.
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Over/Under
Texas is 3-6-1 O/U in its last 10, and Georgia is 6-4. These teams have met twice since 2019; both went Under and had fewer than 51 total points scored.
I look for a tightly contested matchup where the run game will be key.
Take the UNDER 50.5 (-115).
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