One of the best things about the Detroit Lions being 9-1 and in first place is how well it makes the Sunday morning coffee taste. There’s just something a little smoother and richer about first-place coffee. I can get used to this.
Today’s is also nice because it’s the last of the Sunday morning brews before a 1 p.m. kickoff for a month. The Lions are playing at 1 ET in Indianapolis today, but then it’s Thanksgiving with the Bears coming to Ford Field, then a Thursday night game with Green Bay and then a late-afternoon Sunday kickoff against the Bills.
The Lions are favored by a touchdown on the road against the Colts, but this is a dangerous one. The recent defensive injuries that continue to decimate the Lions could be a bigger problem against the Colts than other recent foes.
Here’s what I’m thinking about today’s game a few hours ahead of kickoff.
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Why I think the Lions will win
This is a game where Detroit’s investment in the offensive line and running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should really pay off. The Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and it’s consistent. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson doesn’t lose patience in the run, either. Not that he should need to in this one…
And that’s because the Colts do lose patience on run defense. They are a team that can get some nice stops but then give up a series of big runs. Only the Texans have allowed more runs of 10-plus yards over the last four weeks than the Colts, and it was the Lions who helped push the Texans to the bottom by continuing to run the ball even when trailing. Sonic and Knuckles can do that again, if needed.
The Colts also don’t defend the pass very effectively, especially against accurate QBs. Jared Goff should be able to at least equal his 73 percent completion percentage against a Colts secondary that will gamble on the ball in lieu of tighter pre-throw coverage. With how well Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Tim Patrick get open and present as targets, the Lions should be able to move the ball quite effectively.
Converting those yards into points hasn’t been much of a problem of late. Detroit has been great in the red zone nearly all season, ranking fourth in TD percentage. The one misstep was the Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers, when the Lions went 1-of-7 in the red zone. The Colts defense is middle-of-the-pack in red zone defense. On the flip side, Detroit’s defense is third in the red zone. The Lions are great when it really counts, and the Colts can’t match that. The ability of Gibbs and Jameson Williams to score from well outside the red zone sure helps, too.
This matchup does present something of a trap game for Detroit. Head coach Dan Campbell and his staff have done a great job of not falling into those traps. One of the hallmarks of the resurgent Lions under Campbell the last two years is that they make the opponent come up to their level of play, instead of getting lulled into falling to the inferior opponent’s level. That’s a great mindset to avoid the upset, even on the road against a team like the Colts that does present some challenges.
What concerns me about the Colts
The Colts are a difficult foe with Anthony Richardson at the helm because convention goes out the window. Richardson aggressively seeks big plays and has the athletic ability to pull them off. He’s got decent weapons, too. Alec Pierce leads the league in yards per reception at over 22 per catch, while Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are both sure-handed and capable after the catch. It’s more of a concern this week because the Lions will be without Terrion Arnold, while Carlton Davis is playing with a broken thumb. It’s not a great week for the Lions to be shorthanded at cornerback.
Indy’s offense with Richardson goes for the big plays. Moreover, they don’t really get dissuaded if they aren’t hitting them early. They put a lot of pressure on the opposing defense to play a lot more of the field than is required most weeks. Even without starting tackle Bernhard Raimann, the Colts should still be able to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon, plus Richardson’s freaky size and speed in keeping the ball. This is not a great week for the Lions to be shorthanded at linebacker with Alex Anzalone and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, the team’s two fastest LBs, out with injuries.
On defense, the Colts are very good at creating takeaways. It’s a focus of coordinator Gus Bradley and they’re relentless about it. They’re also a defense without any one dominant pass rusher to focus upon. Kwity Paye and rookie Laiatu Latu are their best rushers, but they have a lot of guys who can win pass rush reps often. Grover Stewart is the best interior lineman you never hear about, but he’s not alone out there. Don’t be fooled by the lack of big pressure or sack numbers; they can impact Goff and score wins against Detroit’s very good offensive line.
Going back up to the Lions forcing the opponent to come to their level–that’s something the Colts do fairly well. Every Indianapolis game is a close one. They haven’t figured out how to win them all that well, but the Colts have only had one game decided by more than one score. They know how to consistently hang around with better teams. That makes them dangerous, especially for a Lions defense that will be missing half its Week 1 starters.
Final score prediction
I have a feeling the Colts are going to make this a tighter game than a lot of fans expect. They’re going to hit on some big plays that the Lions defense doesn’t typically give up. I also have a feeling the Lions offense will be able to hit one or two more of those big plays than the Colts can. Should be a fun game but perhaps a nerve-racking one.
Lions 33, Colts 27
