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The Florida Gators (3-1, 1-1 SEC) and the Kentucky Wildcats (4-0, 1-0) meet Saturday at Kroger Field in Lexington for an SEC East matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Florida vs. Kentucky odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Gators racked up an impressive 29-16 win over Tennessee in Week 3, cashing as a 4.5-point underdog in the biggest victory of the Billy Napier era. It was rather uninspired in a 22-7 win over a very mediocre Charlotte team, but Florida has 3 straight wins and a Top 25 ranking. Florida is 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Under is 3-0-1 at most shops through 4 games.
Kentucky spanked Vanderbilt in the SEC opener last weekend, winning 45-28 to cover a 13-point spread. The Wildcats are now 3-0 ATS in 3 meetings against FBS opponents, and the defense is allowing just 15.5 PPG through 4 outings.
The Wildcats had lost 31 straight meetings against the Gators from 1987 to 2017, but Kentucky has won 3 of the past 5 in the series, including a 26-16 win in Gainesville last Sept. 10. UK has won by 7 or more points in all 3 of those victories since Sept. 2018, too.
Florida is No. 23 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Florida at Kentucky odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Kentucky -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Florida +1.5 (-115) | Kentucky -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Florida at Kentucky picks and predictions
Prediction
Kentucky 26, Florida 23
Moneyline
KENTUCKY (-115) is a football school now. The Wildcats have fired out of the chute with 4 victories, and that’s with QB Devin Leary still struggling a bit by his standards. The former NC State signal caller has completed just 59.3% of his passes for 1,060 yards, 9 TD and 5 INT. If he can start cleaning up his mistakes, and be a little more accurate, the sky is the limit for Big Blue.
Against the spread
KENTUCKY -1.5 (-105) is slightly cheaper than the moneyline, and the better play since the game cannot end in a tie. There was a time it was unfathomable to bet the Wildcats against the Gators, but Kentucky has proven that it can not only beat Florida, it can beat the Gators rather routinely.
Over/Under
OVER 44.5 (-110) is the lean, as this number is just way too low.
Yes, the Gators are averaging just 20.7 PPG on offense in 3 games against FBS opponents, while allowing 15.7 PPG on defense. However, the Wildcats can roll up some serious offense, and it has scored 35 or more points in all 3 games against FBS opponents this season. We won’t get a track meet in Lexington, but we won’t have a defensive slog, either.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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