Tag: FiveThirtyEight Playoff Odds

New FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff prediction has two Big Ten teams making the four team field

Look at what two teams FiveThirtyEight has with two of the best four chances of making the CFP. #B1G

We are now less than one week away from the first release of the 2022 College Football rankings, and we have a much better idea of where everything stands with who are contenders and who is not when it comes to being one of the four teams that get into the field.

There are six undefeated teams in FBS still; Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson, and TCU — but that doesn’t mean each has an equal shot at reaching the College Football Playoff — far from it in fact.

We like to keep an eye on FiveThirtyEight and its playoff prediction model to see what the analytics say about the College Football Playoff, and there have been some major changes over the last couple of weeks as undefeated teams continue to fall on the sword.

In the most recent playoff predictions, FiveThirtyEight has a rare treat, two Big Ten teams with a couple of the best four odds to play for all of the trophies and confetti. There’s still a long way to go, but here’s what the popular analytics website says about the teams with the best chance of reaching the College Football Playoff.

As a side note, we’re only including those teams with a double-digit percentage chance or better because it’s unlikely any team comes from outside of this population. You can head on over and play around yourself to see what happens if certain teams lose, win out, or win the conference.

FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff Predictions, odds after wild Week 7

An updated look at FiveThirtyEight’s updated Colleg Football Playoff Predictions and odds after Week 7.

Sometimes it’s not necessarily what you do, but what others do around you. That seems to be the case with Ohio State football’s chances of making the College Football Playoff according to FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Predictions updated after Week 7.

To be fair, the Buckeyes still have a great shot to join all the fun and perhaps make it to Los Angeles for a shot at a national title according to the popular analytics website, but they are no longer the team with the best odds of making the CFP after a wild college football weekend where four top ten teams lost.

In fact, Ohio State is no longer the team with the best chance to make the playoff, that now goes to another SEC team after Tennessee took down Alabama who had been skating on thin ice anyway.

Here’s a look at the teams with the best chance to make the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight. We’re only going with teams that have a 3% chance or better, but you can take a look at all the analytics and play around with teams winning out vs. getting a conference title to see how everything moves around.

Ohio State, other contenders CFP odds updated by FiveThirtyEight

An updated look at FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff odds and predictions after last weekend’s games. What are your four teams?

As we get closer and closer to the end of the season, the conference championship games, and the final College Football Playoff Rankings, we know you are interested in how the odds keep changing with Ohio State being in the thick of the hunt once again.

So, we check in with FiveThirtyEight twice a week to see how their College Football Playoff Predictions change — once after each weekend’s games, and then again after that week’s release of the CFP Rankings. Yes, they change that frequently because where the committee places teams matters.

So, we’re at it again. The Buckeyes just got done running a top ten Michigan State team off the field 56-7, so you would expect the odds to climb, and maybe the committee will actually vault OSU up a couple of spots in the rankings that will be released on Tuesday evening,

But back to the odds and predictions. Here’s how FiveThirtyEight sees the odds for Ohio State and other contenders playing out after all the games this past weekend. We go ten deep with all the teams that have over a 10% chance still.

FiveThirtyEight updates Ohio State’s College Football Playoff chances after initial CFP Rankings

How did the first set of College Football Playoff Rankings change FiveThirtyEight’s odds of Ohio State and others making the CFP?

Earlier this week we told you what Ohio State football’s chances of making the College Football Playoff were according to the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight. We’ve been keeping track of those odds based on whatever genius-level formulas go into those sort of things over there, and have been checking in once a week.

However, with the release of the first set of College Football Playoff Rankings, FiveThirtyEight has updated those odds a wee-bit because it’s now a new dataset nobody had up until this point. So, we headed on over to the Playoff Predictor to see what has changed, and sure enough, there has been some movement.

As a reminder, here’s how things stood before the initial CFP Rankings came out Tuesday night.

So, how much did these odds move? We’re going to run you through the top teams once again to let you know what kind of change in odds were talking about with Ohio State and any other team that has a greater than 10% chance according to FiveThirtyEight.

We’ll also throw in a team’s chances of making the playoff if it wins out, and what the change in percentage was since the rankings were released Tuesday night.

Ohio State with even better odds in FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Predictions

Movin’ on up! You have to think that Ohio State likely controls its own destiny in the College Football Playoff race.

The Ohio State football team continues to improve and impress. Many are taking a wait-and-see approach until the Buckeyes play a ranked team through this recent run, but it’s hard to look at the team’s performance and not see that the offense is playing at a highly skilled level and the defense improving.

With the dynamic of this team changing, some of the national media and metrics are starting to take notice. One of those metrics is FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Predictions that were recently updated after last week’s slate of games.

Ohio State had been behind Cincinnati and Michigan recently when it comes to its chances of getting into the final four teams, but after Week 8, OSU has now vaulted ahead of both and now has the fourth-best odds of making the playoff at 36 percent. The three teams ahead of the Buckeyes are Georgia (72%), Alabama (52%), and Oklahoma (45%). Rounding out the top ten are Cincinnati (33%), Michigan (25%), Pittsburgh (21%), Oregon (20%), Iowa (13%), and Michigan State (12%).

These will change weekly, so stay with us as we follow what FiveThirtyEight says after each victory Ohio State can pile up. If these projections are right, it appears as though OSU may control its own destiny at this point in a loaded Big Ten. In fact, if you want to have a little fun and play with the model a bit, having the Bucks win out gives them a 98 percent chance at the CFP.

Of course, time will tell.

[lawrence-related id=64731,64726,64718,64662]

[listicle id=64720]

[listicle id=64648]

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes and opinion.