Tag: first downs

NFL is considering moving to an electronic first down system in 2025

The NFL could be saying goodbye to the chain system and saying hello to an electronic system to mark first downs in 2025:

In the 2025 season, the NFL could be measuring first downs electronically. This initiative is in its infancy, but the NFL is currently gauging how interested teams would be in implementing an electronic system. If the teams are interested, you could be saying goodbye to 10-yard metal chains as soon as 2025.

This electronic system’s usage would include first downs, sidelines and goal lines. In theory, this should provide a more accurate determination of if a player reached the line to gain for first downs and touchdowns. That same certainty should extend to reviewing a player possibly stepping out of bounds.

An interesting question is how will this new system change the responsibilities of the officials. Obviously, referees won’t be erased from the game. In these specific situations, though, it’s still unclear if they will spot the ball first or if the system will track the player’s movement. The latter seems the most likely in order to gain the most accurate results.

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Taysom Hill’s rushing success is just as effective as the ‘Tush Push’

Alvin Kamara is right. He says Taysom Hill running ability is equal to the “Tush Push,” and we’ve got the numbers to prove it:

Alvin Kamara is right. The New Orleans Saints running back gave his teammate Taysom Hill a big shoutout after their Week 9 win over the Indianapolis Colts, crediting Hill for his rushing ability — coming off a game in which Hill gained 63 yards off of just 9 carries, with Kamara not far behind (59 yards on 17 attempts).

In his postgame press conference, Kamara said that Hill “is the equivalent of the ‘Tush Push’. You know what’s coming and you can’t stop it.”

Also called the “Brotherly Shove” for its popularity with the Philadelphia Eagles offense in recent years, the play is a modified quarterback sneak that allows teammates to push the quarterback forward while blockers open up space ahead of them. Going into Week 9, the Eagles have converted a first down on 17 of their 21 attempts with this play (81.%). The rest of the NFL has a success rate of 72.7%, going 40-for-55.

And that brings us to Hill, whose success rate as a runner clocks in at 71.1%. Like other quarterbacks around the league who can make plays with their legs, he forces the defense to guard all eleven players, often forcing a moment’s hesitation that can make a big difference. Defenders still misjudge Hill’s speed in the open field and he’s one of the Saints’ best big-play threats as a rusher. His 20-yard touchdown run against the Colts was the longest gain on the ground for the Saints this season. They call his number for good reason.

Now, we should acknowledge something before the nerds points it out for us: these are two different success rates. The “Tush Push” numbers are only considering first down conversions. For Hill, we’re using the formula from Pro Football Reference, which considers what percentage of the yards needed were gained per carry. It’s a little more complicated, but it’s also more comprehensive, and it still gets to Kamara’s point.

But if we only want to look at Hill’s first down conversions as a runner, here they are: he’s moved the sticks 15 times on 38 attempts this season (39.5%), which trails a real “Tush Push” success rate. That’s still a solid number. He’s converted the eighth-most rushing first downs among quarterbacks this season despite his limited role; he isn’t a starter like Jalen Hurts (35 first downs), Lamar Jackson (27), Russell Wilson (18), or other league leaders. As Kamara said, teams know where the ball is going when Hill has it in his hands. And they’re still failing to stop him.

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